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Survey Shows Positive Prospect of Business Expansion

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  • Survey Shows Positive Prospect of Business Expansion

The fourth quarter (Q4) 2016 Business Expectation Survey has indicated that at 46.5 index points, the positive outlook in the volume of business activities reflects prospects for expansion in the first quarter of 2017.

Also, the employment index stood at 23.4 points, indicating a favourable outlook. The employment outlook index by sector, showed that the services sector (10.4 per cent) had higher prospects for creating jobs, followed by the wholesale/retail trade (5.7 per cent), industrial (4.5 per cent) and construction (2.7 per cent) sectors.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), revealed this in a report posted on its website.

The Q4, 2016 Business Expectations Survey (BES) was carried out during the period October 24th to November 04th 2016 with a sample size of 1,950 business enterprises nationwide. A response rate of 99.5 per cent was achieved during the reporting quarter, and covered the Industry, Construction, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services sectors.

The survey was conducted from the updated survey frames of both the CBN and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The survey response rate was 99.5 per cent in the quarter under review.

Respondents were drawn from the Industrial, Construction, Wholesale/Retail trade and Services sectors. The Services sector is made up of Financial Intermediation, Hotels and Restaurants, Renting & Business activities and Community & Social Services.

The distribution of firms by sector showed that services sector constituted the highest number of respondents (35.3 per cent), followed by wholesale/retail (26.2 per cent), industrial (24.3 per cent) and construction (14.2 per cent).

Continuing, a further analysis of businesses with expansion plans by sector in the next quarter showed that the wholesale/retail trade indicated disposition for expansion with an index of 61.0 points. Similarly, construction, services and industrial sector firms indicated expansion plans for Q4, 2016 with indices of 58.3, 56.5 and 55.3 points, respectively.

The surveyed firms identified insufficient power supply (62.4 index points), financial problems (55.6 index points), high interest rate (53.8 index points), unfavourable economic climate (52.7 index points), competition (44.1 index points), unclear economic laws (43.5 index points), unfavourable political climate (38.5 index points), access to credit (37.3 index points) and insufficient demand (36.5 index points) as the major factors constraining business activity in the current quarter.

Also, a breakdown of the respondents by type of businesses showed that 13.8 per cent were import-oriented, 2.0 per cent were export-oriented, 7.8 per cent were both import and export-oriented, and 76.4 per cent were neither import- nor export-oriented (Table 2, sections 16). The distribution of firms by employment size showed that small size firms constituted 81.3 per cent of responses, medium size firms 14.2 per cent, and large size firms 4.5 per cent.

The overall confidence index (CI), which stood at –29.0 points in Q4 2016, indicated respondent firms’ pessimism on the macro economy, however at 32.2 points, the overall CI points to greater confidence on the macro economy in the next quarter.

The pessimistic outlook of respondents in the current quarter was driven by the opinion of respondents from services (-9.4 points), industrial (-7.9 points), wholesale/retail trade (-7.5 points) and construction (-4.2 points ) sectors. Conversely, the expected drivers for the optimism on the macro economy in the next quarter are services (12.3 points), wholesale/retail trade (8.4 points), industrial (6.5 points) and construction (4.0 points) sectors.

Also, the drivers (by type of business) of the pessimism on the macro economy in the current quarter were “neither importer nor exporter” (-22.0 per cent), followed by “importer” (-3.9 per cent) and ‘both importer & exporter” (-2.8 per cent). In addition, the drivers (by size of business) of the pessimism on the macro economy in the current quarter were the small (-23.7 per cent), medium (-4.3 per cent) and large (-1.0 per cent).

” The financial condition index in the current quarter stood at -17.6 per cent and was driven by the wholesale/retail trade (-5.5 points), industrial (-5.1 points), services sector (-4.0 points) and construction (-3.0 points) sectors.

“Respondents’ pessimism in the volume of total order and internal liquidity positions (financial conditions), dampened the volume of their business activities in the current quarter. Similarly, respondents pessimism on access to credit, further lessened their internal liquidity positions in the review quarter,” the report added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Refinery Leverages Cheaper US Oil Imports to Boost Production

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Crude Oil

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is capitalizing on the availability of cheaper oil imports from the United States.

Recent reports indicate that the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day has begun leveraging US-grade oil to power its operations in Nigeria.

According to insights from industry analysts, the refinery has commenced shipping various products, including jet fuel, gasoil, and naphtha, as it gradually ramps up its production capacity.

The utilization of US oil imports, particularly the WTI Midland grade, has provided Dangote Refinery with a cost-effective solution for its feedstock requirements.

Experts anticipate that the refinery’s gasoline-focused units, expected to come online in the summer months will further bolster its influence in the Atlantic Basin gasoline markets.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Dangote’s entry into the gasoline market is poised to reshape the West African gasoline supply dynamics.

Despite operating at approximately half its nameplate capacity, Dangote Refinery’s impact on regional fuel markets is already being felt. The refinery’s recent announcement of a reduction in diesel prices from N1,200/litre to N1,000/litre has generated excitement within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This move is expected to positively affect various sectors of the economy and contribute to reducing the country’s high inflation rate.

Furthermore, the refinery’s utilization of US oil imports shows its commitment to exploring cost-effective solutions while striving to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand. As the refinery continues to optimize its production processes, it is poised to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s energy landscape and contribute to the country’s quest for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.

Moreover, the Nigerian government’s recent directive to compel oil producers to prioritize domestic refineries for crude supply aligns with Dangote Refinery’s objectives of reducing reliance on imported refined products.

With the flexibility to purchase crude using either the local currency or the US dollar, the refinery is well-positioned to capitalize on these policy reforms and further enhance its operational efficiency.

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Havens Seekers Turn to Bonds Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Prices Surge

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Crude Oil - Investors King

As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, investors are seeking refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, particularly bonds, while crude oil prices surge on fears of supply disruptions.

The latest developments in the Middle East have sparked a rush to secure assets perceived as less risky amidst growing uncertainty.

With crude oil trading just over 1% higher, having given up earlier gains of as much as 4.2%, investors are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of real supply disruptions.

While there is currently no evidence of such disruptions, concerns persist that any escalation in tensions could affect oil flows through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or lead to renewed attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Edward Bell, head of market economics at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai, said it is important to assess whether there have been any tangible impacts on the physical supply or shipment of oil products, indicating that if the answer is negative, the premium may need to be recalibrated.

Meanwhile, Oman’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning what it termed Israel’s repeated military attacks in the region in response to the blasts in Iran. This is the first reaction from Gulf Arab states to the reported Israeli strike on Iran.

The ministry also called for international efforts to focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is engaged in conflict with Iranian-backed Hamas, and to seek a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist, argued that the ball is now in Iran’s court, with its next actions likely to determine the broader economic impact of the situation.

In the financial markets, bonds are emerging as the preferred haven for investors seeking safety amid the heightened tensions.

Bunds in Europe, together with Treasuries in the US, are expected to rally, reflecting investor appetite for low-risk assets.

Crude oil prices are also benefitting from the uncertainty, driven primarily by concerns over potential supply disruptions.

As investors navigate the evolving situation, the search for safe-haven assets underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in global markets.

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East continue to shape investor behavior, with a keen focus on developments that could impact global economic stability.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

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Crude Oil

Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

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