Connect with us

Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook December 5-9

Published

on

Outlook
  • Forex Weekly Outlook December 5-9

The US economy continued its positive run last week, adding 178,000 jobs in November, and reducing its unemployment rate from 4.9 percent to a 9 year low of 4.6 percent. While the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annualize rate in the third quarter, more than the 2.9 percent initial estimations. The consumer confidence also surged to 107 from 100.8 in November, validating continuous job creation, even though wages dropped to -0.1 percent. The economy remains strong and in line with the Federal Reserve’s projection for interest rate hike in December.

However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) consensus on crude oil production cut last week, aided currencies of commodity dependent nations against the U.S dollar and bolstered emerging markets. This, first production cap agreement in 8 years is imperative to the financial market and expected to increase oil prices to about $55 a barrel in 2017 — provided non-OPEC members also agreed to production cap next week in Doha, Qatar.

In Canada, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter and added 10,700 jobs at 6.8 percent unemployment rate. Boosted by the surge in crude oil prices, the Canadian dollar rebounded against the U.S dollar to close at 1.3282 last week and poised to continue this week as the financial markets price-in OPEC deal in relation to Canada economic progress.

In the UK, the manufacturing sector expanded by 53.4 in November, but below projected 54.4. The weak pound continued to impact production cost as manufacturers had to up prices charge for goods to accommodate surges in the cost of imported raw materials due to the difference in foreign exchange rate. Nevertheless, the Markit report showed companies from Europe, the Middle East and the US ordered more and projected to maintain current level going forward. This combined with Brexit Secretary David Davis assertion that the U.K would secure access to the EU single market post-Brexit, bolstered pound to a two-month high against the U.S dollar last week. Again, this is another indication of how vulnerable the pound will be in a series of comments from policy makers as the U.K prepared to trigger article 50 in March, 2017.

Therefore, traders are advised to pay attention to changes in economic policies as the U.S, U.K, Italy, France, Japan etc. adjusts their policies to better accommodate present market reality.  Meanwhile, this week NZDCAD and EURGBP top my list.

NZDCAD

This commodity dependent pair stand-out for several reasons, one, Canadian currency/economy has picked up after Alberta’s wildfire, and projected to do better as OPEC and non-OPEC strive to reach consensus on production cut. Two, all through this year I have emphasized why the Kiwi is overpriced and the reason it will eventually pared gains, and aligned with the reserve bank of New Zealand foreign exchange rate projection. While, emerging economies are expected to get a boost from the surged in commodity prices and rebound in the manufacturing sector, Canada is at the heart of it all and forecast to do even more, especially with Trump plans to increase productivity in the U.S — Canada largest trading partner, the Canadian manufacturing sector is expected to once again come alive and continue to support job growth and income, which will eventually encourage consumer spending and spur inflation from the current low.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 5-9

Click to enlarge

Technically, this pair has lost about 529 pips, after peaking at 0.9923 three weeks ago — closing as doji below 0.9505 psychologically level last week. This week, I am bearish on NZDCAD as long as 0.9505 new resistance holds, with 0.9298 as the target.

EURGBP

This pair topped our list last week and since then has lost about 101 pips in our favour to close bearish at 0.8373, this week I remain bearish on EURGBP, one, the Italy referendum, France election, Greece economic issues, among other Europe economic struggle are likely to weigh more on the Euro single currency against the British pound this week. Another reason is the current pound position, the U.K economy/currency continued to differ post-Brexit catastrophe and pared losses.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 5-9

Click to enlarge

 

This week, as long as 0.8471 holds, I am bearish on EURGBP, with 0.8240 as first target and 0.8117 as the second target.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD

This two pair remains elusive, even with the US dollar renewed strength ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, these commodities dependent currencies remain moderately attractive and has managed to remain above comfortable sellers-price level in the last two weeks. While I remain bearish on both pairs. I will be standing aside this week to better monitor these economies in relation to a series of global happenings impacting these pairs.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

on

naira

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,260
  • Selling Rate: N1,250

Continue Reading

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

on

New Naira notes

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.

Continue Reading

Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

Published

on

Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending