Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 – December 2

Published

7 years ago

November 27, 2016

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 - December 2

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 – December 2

The US economy continues its progress ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision next month, boosting the U.S dollar attractiveness against the majors, especially the Euro and the Yen. Validated by a series of positive economic data released last week, the markets continue to price-in December rate hike. While, businesses and investors are focusing on possible increase in productivity and a stock market rally in 2017, as the president-elect, Trump, plans to increase economic productivity by lowering taxes and increasing job creation.

Still, new home sales dropped from 574,000 in September to 563,000 in October, below general consensus of 591,000, but durable goods sold in the same month rose 4.8 percent. Making it four consecutive months that orders for U.S capital goods has climbed. However, Trump’s intermittent comments have increased uncertainty and created doubt as to how economies affected by these policies plan to fight back, especially on the issue of Tran-Pacific Partnership trade deal negotiated for 7 years, one the president elected announced he will call off on January 20 — his first day in the office.

Nevertheless, the third quarter preliminary GDP, personal spending data needed to assess the health of consumer spending and ADP non-farm employment change due this week are important in the Fed’s rate decision and the U.S dollar attractiveness in December.

In China, outstanding loans rose from 28 percent to 40 percent of the GDP, as rising property values refused all effort by the policy makers to abate. This continuous rise in the values of real estate in major Chinese cities has led to speculation of possible real estate catastrophe should downturn started.

Even though, industrial profits surged 9.8 percent to 616.1 billion Yuan in October, continuous plunge of the Yuan is likely to sap companies’ profits in 2017 – especially those companies that rely on overseas imports for raw materials. While, increase in prices will bolster China’s inflation rate, mixed business sentiment is likely to weigh on new investment and economic outlook of 2017. This is very important to the Australian economy as China is its biggest trading partner.

In Japan, the Yen continued its decline against major currencies, after investors abandoned the haven currency for the U.S dollar. This is not entirely bad, in fact, it offers the Bank of Japan an opportunity to boost its low consumer prices and enhance its weak manufacturing sector due to low oversea orders (exports). Also, productivity and consumer spending are expected to pick up as exports revamp the manufacturing sector and improve wages.

Overall, global financial markets remain vibrant but with high level of uncertainty and risk. Traders are advised to pay attention to economic data and comments from policy makers as countries like France, Italy, etc. go to the poll. This week, I will be looking to trade EURGBP and my last week pick, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

EURGBP

The Euro-area is yet to a find lasting solution to Greece financial woe, yet Italy is getting ready for referendum on December 4th. All these coupled with Brexit and weak manufacturing sector are affecting the embattled 19-nation single currency, and with the U.K positive economic data and monetary measures announced to be implemented in order to sustain current job creation and consumer spending. I expect the pound to continue its current progress against the euro this week.

Click to enlarge

Last week, after a bearish continuation candlestick opened below 20-days moving average and close below 0.8584 support, this pair has confirmed its bearish stance. So, this week I will be looking to sell below 0.8471 support level for 0.8240 target.

AUDUSD

This pair rebounded mid-way, following Trump comments on Tran-Pacific Partnership trade deal last week. But for reasons like weak yuan and RBA comments on the danger of high foreign exchange rate on the economy, a situation that is likely to worsen once China imports from Australia start slowing down. Again, the U.S dollar is currently the most attractive currency and expected to remain so for a while, with this, I am compelled to maintain my bearish view on AUDUSD. This week, as long as 0.7505 resistance holds, I am bearish on this pair with 0.7203 as the target.

Click to enlarge

NZDUSD

For a similar reason, I am bearish on NZDUSD this week as long as price remains below 0.7050, outside the ascending channel started over a year ago. I am bearish on NZDDUSD and will be looking to sell on sustained break of 0.6989 support for 0.6771 target.

Click to enlarge

Up Next

Naira Falls to N480/$ on Parallel Market on FX Scarcity

Don't Miss

Naira Weakens to 470 on Fresh Dollar Scarcity

Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Comments

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.