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Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 – December 2

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Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 - December 2
  • Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 – December 2

The US economy continues its progress ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision next month, boosting the U.S dollar attractiveness against the majors, especially the Euro and the Yen. Validated by a series of positive economic data released last week, the markets continue to price-in December rate hike. While, businesses and investors are focusing on possible increase in productivity and a stock market rally in 2017, as the president-elect, Trump, plans to increase economic productivity by lowering taxes and increasing job creation.

Still, new home sales dropped from 574,000 in September to 563,000 in October, below general consensus of 591,000, but durable goods sold in the same month rose 4.8 percent. Making it four consecutive months that orders for U.S capital goods has climbed.  However, Trump’s intermittent comments have increased uncertainty and created doubt as to how economies affected by these policies plan to fight back, especially on the issue of Tran-Pacific Partnership trade deal negotiated for 7 years, one the president elected announced he will call off on January 20 — his first day in the office.

Nevertheless, the third quarter preliminary GDP, personal spending data needed to assess the health of consumer spending and ADP non-farm employment change due this week are important in the Fed’s rate decision and the U.S dollar attractiveness in December.

In China, outstanding loans rose from 28 percent to 40 percent of the GDP, as rising property values refused all effort by the policy makers to abate. This continuous rise in the values of real estate in major Chinese cities has led to speculation of possible real estate catastrophe should downturn started.

Even though, industrial profits surged 9.8 percent to 616.1 billion Yuan in October, continuous plunge of the Yuan is likely to sap companies’ profits in 2017 – especially those companies that rely on overseas imports for raw materials. While, increase in prices will bolster China’s inflation rate, mixed business sentiment is likely to weigh on new investment and economic outlook of 2017. This is very important to the Australian economy as China is its biggest trading partner.

In Japan, the Yen continued its decline against major currencies, after investors abandoned the haven currency for the U.S dollar. This is not entirely bad, in fact, it offers the Bank of Japan an opportunity to boost its low consumer prices and enhance its weak manufacturing sector due to low oversea orders (exports). Also, productivity and consumer spending are expected to pick up as exports revamp the manufacturing sector and improve wages.

Overall, global financial markets remain vibrant but with high level of uncertainty and risk. Traders are advised to pay attention to economic data and comments from policy makers as countries like France, Italy, etc. go to the poll. This week, I will be looking to trade EURGBP and my last week pick, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

EURGBP

The Euro-area is yet to a find lasting solution to Greece financial woe, yet Italy is getting ready for referendum on December 4th. All these coupled with Brexit and weak manufacturing sector are affecting the embattled 19-nation single currency, and with the U.K positive economic data and monetary measures announced to be implemented in order to sustain current job creation and consumer spending. I expect the pound to continue its current progress against the euro this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 - December 2

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Last week, after a bearish continuation candlestick opened below 20-days moving average and close below 0.8584 support, this pair has confirmed its bearish stance. So, this week I will be looking to sell below 0.8471 support level for 0.8240 target.

AUDUSD

This pair rebounded mid-way, following Trump comments on Tran-Pacific Partnership trade deal last week. But for reasons like weak yuan and RBA comments on the danger of high foreign exchange rate on the economy, a situation that is likely to worsen once China imports from Australia start slowing down. Again, the U.S dollar is currently the most attractive currency and expected to remain so for a while, with this, I am compelled to maintain my bearish view on AUDUSD. This week, as long as 0.7505 resistance holds, I am bearish on this pair with 0.7203 as the target.

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 - December 2

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NZDUSD

For a similar reason, I am bearish on NZDUSD this week as long as price remains below 0.7050, outside the ascending channel started over a year ago. I am bearish on NZDDUSD and will be looking to sell on sustained break of 0.6989 support for 0.6771 target.

Forex Weekly Outlook November 28 - December 2

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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Forex

Investors in Turmoil as Zimbabwe’s New Currency Wipes Out 330% Stock Market Gain

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Zimbabwe’s financial landscape has been rattled by the introduction of the new currency ZiG, spelling trouble for investors who had sought refuge in the stock market amidst economic turmoil.

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) All Share Index has plummeted by 99.95% since the rollout of ZiG on April 5. This has erased more than 330% gain recorded earlier this year.

The introduction of ZiG, short for Zimbabwe Gold, was intended to provide stability to the country’s currency and succeed the embattled Zimbabwean dollar, which had already lost 80% of its value in 2024 alone.

However, instead of instilling confidence, the new currency has sent shockwaves through the stock market, leaving investors grappling with the fallout.

Prior to the currency conversion, investors had flocked to the stock market as a safe haven amid the Zimbabwean dollar’s depreciation and soaring inflation rates, which had reached a seven-month high of 55.3% in March.

However, the abrupt introduction of ZiG has reversed their fortunes, plunging share prices and trading volumes as the market grapples with the transition.

Justin Bgoni, the CEO of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, attributed the market’s poor performance to a combination of factors, including delays in currency conversion by financial institutions and tight liquidity conditions.

He noted that investors were also hesitant and uncertain about the value of assets denominated in ZiG terms, further exacerbating the situation.

The conversion of share prices from the old currency to ZiG at a swap rate of 1 ZiG to 2,498 Zimbabwean dollars has led to a significant decline in trading volumes and revenues for brokerage firms.

Lloyd Mlotshwa, head of research at Harare-based brokerage IH Securities, highlighted that brokerages have experienced a substantial hit to earnings, with some seeing their revenues drop by at least 50%.

Stockbrokers in the capital, Harare, described the current market conditions as “a painful early winter,” marked by limited trading volumes and uncertainty. They anticipate broader ramifications across the stock market architecture, affecting not only stockbrokers but also custodians, government taxes, and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange itself.

Enock Rukarwa, a research and investment consultant at FBC Securities, said stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income and pointed out that the majority of the economy still transacting in US dollars.

He suggested that stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income.

Imara Asset Management, Zimbabwe’s largest independent brokerage overseeing $100 million in assets, warned of further upheaval in the coming months as share prices adjusted to ZiG.

The company’s CEO and CIO, John Legat and Shelton Sibanda, criticized the decision to adopt ZiG instead of US dollars, considering that many listed businesses operate in USD.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 23rd, 2024

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New Naira Notes

As of April 23rd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,250 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,290 and sell it at N1,280 on Monday, April 22nd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,250
  • Selling Rate: N1,240

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