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Nigeria Worries as Oil Prices Tumble

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Offshore oil platform is seen in Huntington Beach
  • Nigeria Worries as Oil Prices Tumble

Fears about early resuscitation of Nigeria’s economy has heightened as oil prices tumbled at the global market on Friday by more than three per cent after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said October output reached another record of 33.64 million barrels per day, up 240,000 bpd from September.

Nigeria, which largely depends on proceeds from its oil exports, is currently in economic recession, having recorded negative growth rate in its Gross Domestic Product in two consecutive quarters. This is reflected in drastic drop in income, employment, manufacturing and retail sales.

Although the Federal Government said it was already taking steps to take the country out of the economic mess, the continued militant attacks on oil installations in the Niger Delta and the new development in global oil market could frustrate the government’s efforts, according to experts.

Crude futures have wiped out gains made since the end of September when OPEC said it would agree to cut oil production to shore up persistently low prices, according to Reuters.

It said in a report on Friday that while investors had been sceptical that a deal to cut or freeze oil output levels would be reached at an OPEC meeting on November 30, an increasing amount of data had underscored a global skew towards oversupply.

It also noted that following the latest data, the cartel would have to trim up to a million barrels per day of output to make good on its promise to reduce production to between 32.50 million bpd and 33.0 million bpd.

It quoted a trader at Tyche Capital Advisors in New York, Mr. Tariq Zahir, as saying, “The next couple of weeks, even if they get a deal done, there’s so much oil coming to the market. Prices deserve to be here, maybe even a little lower.”

With oil price crashing to less than $50 per barrel, Nigeria’s production output has tumbled over 400,000 barrels due to militancy activities in the Niger Delta region. Oil production plummeted to 1.69 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2016, down from 2.11 million barrel per day in the first quarter, with oil-based GDP contracting by 17.5 per cent in quarter two compared to 1.9 per cent in the first quarter.

As oil revenues dwindle, Nigeria has resorted to desperate measures including using crude to offset its debts.

For instance, the Federal Government recently said it had reached an outline settlement to resolve a protracted dispute with Western energy companies, under which the groups would be paid $5bn to cover exploration and production costs.

A report by Financial Times said Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, Eni, Chevron and Total had signed deals relating to the settlement of costs incurred between 2010 and 2015, as they also sought to forge new financing arrangements for their joint ventures in Nigeria.

The settlement, which would be a haircut on the over $6bn the oil majors claimed they were owed by Nigeria, would need the approval of two government bodies and the final sign-off from President Muhammadu Buhari, the report added.

Meanwhile, international Brent crude futures traded at $44.34 per barrel on Friday, down $1.50, or 3.27 per cent, its lowest since August.

The US West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were down by $1.51, or 3.4 per cent, to $43.14 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency has said the supply overhang could run into a third year in 2017, should OPEC fail to act.

In its monthly oil market report last Thursday, the IEA said global supply rose by 800,000 bpd in October to 97.8 million bpd, led by record OPEC output and rising production from non-OPEC members such as Russia, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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