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China Fine-tunes Oil Deals with FG, Seeks Sovereign Guarantee on Investments

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China Nigeria
  • China Fine-tunes Oil Deals with FG, Seeks Sovereign Guarantee on Investments

Nigeria and China on Tuesday began to put finishing touches to the multi-billion dollar oil deals both countries had initiated, and which will see Chinese firms invest heavily in Nigeria’s energy sector.

But while the terms in the business deals are being worked out, the firms have indicated that they would be requesting a sovereign guarantee from the Nigerian government to back their planned investment on pipeline construction.

To this end, a delegation of Chinese companies had a meeting with officials of the Nigerian government at the headquarters of the NNPC in Abuja.

The meeting, where the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the oil deals was fine-tuned, followed the inauguration of an inter-ministerial implementation committee on Monday by the government to meet with the investors.

Present at the meeting yesterday were members of the committee comprising representatives from NNPC, Ministry of Finance, the Debt Management Office (DMO), Budget Office of the Federation, and Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, among others.

A representative of the Chinese delegation, Julie Zhu, in her presentation, highlighted some of the investments which the MoU will cover in 2017.

In the upstream sector, Zhu, said the China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) would support Nigeria with an oil-backed loan of $5.5 billion to ramp up upstream oil production.

She said the CINDA consortium – made up of many leading Chinese state-owned companies – would invest in setting up one new gas central processing facility (CPF) at a cost that would be between $3 billion and $3.54 billion.

Zhu also stated that they plan to build a new petroleum pipeline that would run from Port Harcourt to Kano at the cost of between $4.3 billion and $5.4 billion.

The Chinese delegation however said funding for the pipeline would be covered by a sovereign guarantee, because of the risk of vandalism associated with Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

“In China, the media coverage of Nigeria is actually very negative. You have Boko Haram in the north and militancy in the south keeps coming up. Nobody is going to invest, lay a pipeline and the next day you bomb it, that is why Nigeria as a government will need to guarantee they can deal with those issues,” Zhu said.

She equally explained that the Chinese companies were proposing to invest in the construction of three power plants to be located in Abuja, Kaduna and Kano at the cost of between $3.6 billion and $4.5 billion.

According to her, they will revamp the country’s four refineries with $0.9 billion and $1.1 billion to get them working so that they can refine more oil.

Zhu, however, said that after revamping the refineries, there were plans to add petrochemical units to increase the profitability of their operations.

All these, Zhu said, would be done at the same time. “It has to be (done at the same time) because the power plants cannot work if you don’t have the pipeline. The pipeline will not work if you can’t process the gas,” she said.

Cash Call Arrears

But as the federal government seeks to woo Chinese investors to increase their stake in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, it remained focused on ensuring that international oil companies (IOCs) were not left out, with President Muhammadu Buhari assuring them that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) will soon consider a proposal to settle the cash call arrears owed the government’s joint venture partners.

Over the years, the federal government has found it difficult to fund its share of cash call obligations for the joint venture oil assets, forcing the IOCs to fund the projects singlehandedly. The government’s cash call arrears are estimated at $7 billion.

A statement issued by the president’s media aide, Mr. Garba Shehu, said Buhari spoke at the State House, Abuja‎ during a meeting with the Director, Global Upstream of Shell, Mr. Andrew Brown who met with the president yesterday.

The president also said that the security of oil infrastructure would continue to be prioritised side-by-side the dialogue with the stakeholder-communities in the Niger Delta.

He, however, urged oil companies to take more responsibility in the protection of oil installations to complement the efforts of Nigerian Navy in the region.

The president also restated the determination of his administration to restore the country to the “good old days of accountability”.

Buhari said he would leave a legacy of improved infrastructure, particularly in the power sector, and also ensure better security in the Niger Delta region.

“It is only by doing this that investor morale and confidence will return, and the economy will be positioned on the path of growth,” the president said.

Buhari, who commended Shell for its faith in the economy and staying power, assured his guest on some issues of concern raised by Shell.

In his remarks, Mr. Brown, informed the president of the resumption of oil exportation from the Forcados terminal following its restoration.

He called for continued protection by the Nigerian Navy, in view of repeated threats of attack by militants.

Brown commended the anti-corruption posture of the Buhari administration, as well as the efforts to streamline and stabilise the economy for long-term projects, saying all the efforts will go a long way to reinforce Shell’s investment plans in Nigeria.

No Plan to Increase Fuel Price

Meanwhile, NNPC has said there is no plan by the federal government to increase the price of petrol from its current N145 per litre.

NNPC was quick to make this clarification yesterday after its Group General Manager in charge of the Crude Oil Marketing Division, Mr. Mele Kyari, admitted on Monday that the current price was unsustainable due to the prevailing exchange rate.

He also said that under the current price regime, the subsidy element had crept back, but was categorical that the Buhari administration would not contemplate another hike in the price of the product.

Speaking on the issue yesterday, the Group General Manager, Public Affairs in NNPC, Mallam Garba Deen Muhammad, restated that there would be no need for the government to undertake an upward review of the price of petrol, because in its estimation, there was oversupply of the product in the country.

He also explained that in the wake of rising prices of crude oil in the international market, it had done long-term supply deals with suppliers to mitigate whatever price shock the development might bring on its downstream operations.

Muhammad also disclosed that a new regime that would allow petroleum marketers have more access to foreign exchange to aid fuel importation had been negotiated and taken off.

Although he refused to provide more clarity on the new FX arrangement, he said it was negotiated on the basis of complaints by the marketers, stressing that the arrangement was adequate for them.

“The statement was made within the context of technical terms and not downstream operations. But the bottom line is that there is absolutely no plan by government to increase fuel price above the N145 per litre maximum level,” said Muhammad.

He further said: “If there is going to be anything like that, the agency responsible for fixing price – the PPPRA – will definitely communicate to Nigerians and give reasons why that will happen, but as at this moment, there is absolutely no plan to do that and no need to do that because we have more than enough supply.

“We also have long-term procurement contracts with our suppliers and the usual reasons that would necessitate any review of the price at the moment have been well taken care of. We have long-term contracts and enough stock.”

On the new FX arrangement for marketers, Muhammad said: “They have been complaining and their complaints have been addressed adequately to their satisfaction.

“A new window has been opened to make adequate FX available to them for importation and they are satisfied with it. In fact, we are waiting for them to now deliver because we have fulfilled our own part of the bargain.

“Besides, we have a glut in the market, people have imported and are waiting for off-takers to buy their products to sell and it is the case in every part of the country.

“Discussions were held, negotiations were made within the committee that is making FX available to marketers including the CBN representatives and the marketers.

“The discussion started a few weeks ago and the window became effective two weeks ago. When people make complaints, you have to investigate and find solutions to the complaints.”

When asked if there was a subsidy element on petrol, Muhammad said: “There is no subsidy in the market now. What we were explaining is what the price modulation will do, we said it will make importation of petroleum products easier for everybody and the need to subsidise will not be there because prices will be determined by market forces.

“You buy and sell at prices that are acceptable to you. People sell at prices less than N145, and it is not magic but diligent pursuit of commonsense, and that is what has been responsible for the stability and we intend to maintain the momentum. There has been no shift in policy since the new management of NNPC took over.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IEA Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast by 100,000 Barrels per Day

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Crude Oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The agency cited a sluggish start to the year in developed economies as a key factor contributing to the downward revision.

According to the latest Oil Market Report released by the IEA, global oil consumption has continued to experience a slowdown in growth momentum with first-quarter growth estimated at 1.6 million bpd.

This figure falls short of the IEA’s previous forecast by 120,000 bpd, indicating a more sluggish demand recovery than anticipated.

With much of the post-Covid rebound already realized, the IEA now projects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024.

Furthermore, growth is expected to decelerate further to 1.1 million bpd in the following year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.

This revision comes just a month after the IEA had raised its outlook for 2024 oil demand growth by 110,000 bpd from its February report.

At that time, the agency had expected demand growth to reach 1.3 million bpd for 2024, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the current revision.

The IEA’s latest demand growth estimates diverge significantly from those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While the IEA projects modest growth, OPEC maintains its forecast of robust global oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd for 2024, consistent with its previous assessment.

However, uncertainties loom over the global oil market, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

The IEA has highlighted the impact of drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries, which could potentially disrupt fuel markets globally.

Up to 600,000 bpd of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter due to these attacks, according to the IEA’s assessment.

Furthermore, unplanned outages in Europe and tepid Chinese activity have contributed to a lowered forecast of global refinery throughputs for 2024.

The IEA now anticipates refinery throughputs to rise by 1 million bpd to 83.3 million bpd, reflecting the challenges facing the refining sector.

The situation has raised concerns among policymakers, with the United States expressing worries over the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

There are fears that these attacks could lead to retaliatory measures from Russia and result in higher international oil prices.

As the global oil market navigates through these challenges, stakeholders will closely monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to adapt to the evolving landscape.

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Crude Oil

Federal Government Allows Indigenous Refineries to Purchase Crude Oil in Naira or Dollars

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Dangote Refinery

The Federal Government of Nigeria has announced that domestic crude oil refiners and other operators in the sector are now permitted to buy crude oil in either naira or dollars.

This move comes as a response to longstanding demands from stakeholders in the industry and is poised to reshape the dynamics of the nation’s oil market.

The announcement was made on Monday through the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission during a briefing in Abuja.

According to the commission, the decision to allow the purchase of crude oil in naira or dollars aligns with the provisions of Section 109(2) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

The development of the new template involved collaboration with key stakeholders, including representatives from NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services, Crude Oil/Condensate Producers, Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association of Nigeria, and Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Gbenga Komolafe, said the new template will ensure a seamless implementation of the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation (DCSO) and maintain a consistent supply of crude oil to domestic refineries.

He highlighted that the flexibility to transact in either naira or dollars would alleviate pressure on the country’s foreign exchange rate, potentially benefiting the overall economy.

Responding to inquiries regarding the currency of transaction, Komolafe reiterated that payments could be made in either United States dollars or naira, or a combination of both, as agreed upon in the Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) between the producer and the refiner.

This flexibility is expected to ease the financial burden on indigenous refineries and support their sustainability in the face of economic challenges.

The decision comes after modular refineries in Nigeria faced threats of shutdown due to difficulties in accessing foreign exchange for crude oil purchases.

These refineries with a combined capacity of producing 200,000 barrels of crude oil daily, struggled to secure dollars for purchasing crude, which is priced in US dollars.

The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria had previously expressed concerns over the impact of the foreign exchange crisis on their operations.

Furthermore, alongside the announcement regarding crude oil purchases, the government revealed an increase in the country’s crude oil and condensate reserves to 37.5 billion barrels as of January 1, 2024.

Gas reserves also saw an uptick, reaching 209.26 trillion cubic feet during the same period, signifying substantial potential for future exploration and production activities.

As Nigeria navigates its oil and gas landscape, the decision to allow indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in naira or dollars marks a significant step towards supporting local industry players and promoting economic stability in the sector.

With the potential to enhance operational efficiency and mitigate financial challenges, this policy shift holds promise for the growth and sustainability of Nigeria’s oil refining sector.

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Commodities

Citigroup Predicts $3,000 Value Amidst Investor Surge

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gold bars - Investors King

Citigroup Inc. has predicted that the world’s leading safe haven asset, gold will reach $3,000 per ounce.

This announcement comes amidst a significant surge in investor interest in the precious metal, fueled by a myriad of factors ranging from geopolitical tensions to shifting monetary policies.

Analysts at Citigroup, led by Aakash Doshi, have upgraded their estimates for average gold prices in 2024 to $2,350, with a 40% upward revision in their 2025 prediction to $2,875.

They anticipate that trading will regularly test and surpass the $2,500 price level in the latter half of the year.

The rationale behind Citigroup’s optimistic outlook lies in several key factors. Firstly, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has spurred increased investor inflows into gold as historically low interest rates tend to make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.

Also, ongoing conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine have heightened geopolitical uncertainty, further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, have been actively accumulating gold reserves, adding to the overall demand for the precious metal.

China, in particular, has demonstrated robust consumer demand for gold, further underpinning Citigroup’s bullish stance.

According to Citigroup analysts, the resurgence of inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has played a significant role in supporting the climb towards the $3,000 mark.

This trend marks a departure from recent years, where such inflows were relatively subdued.

While Citigroup acknowledges the possibility of a pullback in prices around May or June, they anticipate strong buying support at the $2,200 per ounce threshold, suggesting that any dips in price may be short-lived.

The bank’s forecast aligns with sentiments expressed by other major financial institutions. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, has raised its year-end forecast for gold to $2,700, citing similar factors driving the commodity’s upward trajectory.

UBS Group AG also sees gold reaching $2,500 by the year’s end, further corroborating the bullish outlook shared by Citigroup.

As investors brace for what could be a historic rally in gold prices, Citigroup’s projection serves as a testament to the growing optimism surrounding the precious metal.

With geopolitical tensions simmering and central banks poised to enact accommodative monetary policies, gold appears poised to shine brightly in the months ahead, potentially realizing Citigroup’s ambitious target of $3,000 per ounce.

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