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Carney to Ignore Inflation Jump as November Rate Cut Seen

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Mark Carney
  • Carney to Ignore Inflation Jump as November Rate Cut Seen

Days after the Bank of England governor said he’ll tolerate faster price gains in his efforts to support the economy, more than 70 percent economists said the Monetary Policy Committee will cut the benchmark rate to a record-low 0.1 percent on Nov. 3. The panel, which will keep its quantitative-easing program running as planned, will present new economic projections the same day.

The pound’s 18 percent drop since the Brexit vote is creating a dilemma for policy makers because it’s fueling faster inflation. As BOE staff crunch numbers and prepare the crucial new quarterly forecasts, they’ll have to take into account the impact of the currency move and leave Carney to decide on the right time for more easing.

“It’s going to be a pretty close call,” said Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec in London who currently predicts a cut but plans to review the forecast in the coming weeks. “It’s an incredibly difficult one this time around, particularly with sterling having moved that much further.”

The economists’ forecasts are increasingly at odds with the money markets, which show traders see just a 5 percent probability of a reduction next month, down from 17 percent after the BOE’s September policy meeting.

The pound’s depreciation took it to a three-decade low earlier this month, pushing up consumer prices. The inflation rate rose to an annual 1 percent in September, the fastest pace since 2014, data today showed. U.K. government bonds are also falling, pushing the 10-year yield to its highest level since the Brexit referendum result.

Adding to the complexity is a better-than-expected economic backdrop since June, which could prompt officials to raise their growth forecasts. Staff have already lifted their third-quarter GDP estimate, and policy makers Michael Saunders and Kristin Forbes have said that the outlook may not be as weak as the central bank predicted in August.

“Presentationally, it’s difficult to revise growth and inflation forecasts higher and ease policy,” said Jason Simpson, a London-based fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale SA. “There is also the added complication that cutting rates while the market does not expect it risks further weakness in the currency.”

Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said this month that the November Inflation Report will be a “very important forecast round.”

Higher Prices

Shoppers are already seeing tangible effects of price gains, with Apple raising the cost its iPhone 7 by 11 percent in the U.K. and Unilever and Tesco having a public dispute over pricing.

Economists in the monthly survey see inflation at an average 1.2 percent this quarter, unchanged from last the previous survey. Forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are at 2.2 percent and 2.3 percent, the latter slightly raised from September.

Such a small overshoot of the BOE’s 2 percent target would make life easier for policy makers, who’ve had to defend the August stimulus package that included a rate cut and asset purchases because of the economy’s signs of strength.

“If we had wanted to ensure that we set policy — the level of interest rates — in such a way as to ensure there was no chance of it rising above target, then we would have had to have set tighter policy,” Broadbent said in a BBC interview on Monday. “That would have meant lower economic growth and that would have increased the chances of unemployment going up.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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