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U.K. 2Q Current-Account Deficit Widens; GDP Growth Revised Up

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UK Consumers
  • Current-account gap climbs to 5.9% of GDP from 5.7% in 1Q
  • GDP growth revised to 0.7% on the back of services, investment

The U.K. current-account deficit widened in the second quarter as the trade gap hit a 2 1/2-year high and Britain continued to record heavy outflows of investment income.

The shortfall — the difference between money coming into the U.K. and money sent out — was 28.7 billion pounds, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. That equates to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product, up from 5.7 percent in the first quarter. The deficit hit a record 7 percent at the end of last year.

Brexit has thrown the current-account gap into the spotlight, with some analysts warning that foreign investors may be less willing to finance the shortfall by buying U.K. assets. Mounting concern has contributed to the sharp fall in sterling since the June 23 decision to leave the European Union.

Separately, the ONS said the economy grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter, slightly more than the 0.6 percent previously estimated. Consumers stepped up their spending and business investment increased, offsetting the biggest drag from net trade since 2013.

At 5.4 percent of GDP last year, the U.K. current-account deficit was double that of the U.S. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has warned of a reliance on “the kindness of strangers” and credit-rating agencies highlight the gap as a key weakness. Trade Secretary Liam Fox added his voice on Thursday as he chided British companies for exporting too little.

Sterling Hopes

The total trade deficit widened to 12.7 billion pounds in the second quarter, or 2.6 percent of GDP. The gap between what British investors earn on their foreign investments and what foreigners earn on their investments in Britain narrowed but still totaled almost 10 billion pounds. The deficit on secondary income, which covers remittances and government transfers, widened.

There are hopes that a more competitive pound will help boost demand for exports and reduce spending on imports. Economists surveyed see the current-account deficit narrowing to 4 percent of GDP in 2017 from a record 5.5 percent this year.

The GDP figures paint a picture of an economy that held its own prior to the Brexit vote and there are signs of continuing resilience.

In July, services rose by 0.4 percent, boosted by retail sales, the film industry and computer programming. Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in the same month and construction stagnated. Together with business surveys for August, it suggests Britain is on course to avoid contraction in the third quarter.

No Shock

“This fresh data tends to support the view that there has been no sign of an immediate shock to the economy, although the full picture will continue to emerge,” said ONS statistician Darren Morgan.

The revision to the second quarter was due to services and investment being higher than previously estimated. Business investment rose 1 percent instead of 0.5 percent and services grew 0.6 percent, up from 0.5 percent. Net trade knocked 0.8 percentage points off growth as exports fell 1 percent and imports gained 1.3 percent.

GDP grew 2.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. On an annualized basis, it expanded 2.7 percent, compared with 1.4 percent in the U.S.

Economists expect a sharp slowdown next year as Brexit hits hiring and investment and accelerating inflation saps consumer spending. Real disposable income grew 0.6 percent in the second quarter while the savings ratio fell to 5.1 percent from 5.6 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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