Hillary Clinton appears to have edged out her Republican opponent Donald Trump in the first presidential debate, based on analysts’ take on the market reaction.
“Early indications suggest Hillary won the debate; at least didn’t lose. Futures are higher and the peso is rallying,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank.
U.S. stock index futures erased losses to trade positive as the debate kicked off. Futures were near session highs as the debate ended, with Dow futures briefly adding more than 100 points.
The U.S. dollar last traded about 1.8 percent weaker against the Mexican peso and was stronger against the yen. The euro-dollar held steady near $1.125.
In the last few days, the Mexican peso has hit all-time lows against the U.S. dollar as Trump appeared to gain momentum in election polls.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed more than 150 points lower Monday, weighed by concerns ahead of the evening debate and pressure on the financial sector from a plunge in shares of Deutsche Bank to record lows.
“I think Hillary Clinton did pretty well. I think she was better prepared than Trump,” said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird. “Whether the debate will mean anything (remains) to be seen.”
Key market issues such as drug pricing and breaking up the banks were not discussed at this debate. But both candidates agreed on the need to strengthen cybersecurity. Clinton focused more on combating terrorism in cyberspace, while Trump said hacking and cyberwarfare was a “huge problem.”
Paul Christopher, head global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said Clinton’s “direct references to supporting Arab allies against ISIS was also a strong statement that reiterated the current administration’s approach, although she did not offer much that was new.”
“Mr. Trump agreed that we could be better at cybersecurity, but his answers were diffuse and unfocused, and handicapped by his well-known favorable comments about Russian President [Vladimir] Putin,” Christopher said. “Mr. Trump could have said more about opening a broader cyber front against ISIS.”
To be sure, the immediate Monday night market reaction to the debate could reverse, and analysts were quick to point out that there are still two more presidential debates to come ahead of the November election.
“If markets think she did well, then the polls need to reflect that. In the financial industry, the (market participants), they can have an assessment she won. That doesn’t mean the average voter has the same view,” said Andres Jaime, global FX and rates strategist at Barclays.
“If a poll in the next few days shows the race is as tight as it (was heading into the debate), then markets will probably sell off,” he said. He said clarity on the latest polls should come by the end of the week.
China and EU Seek Partnership: Xi Jinping Proposes Key Trade Alliance
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his desire for China and the European Union (EU) to become key trade partners and foster trust in supply chains, during a meeting with EU leaders in Beijing.
The talks marked the first in-person summit between the two sides in four years and addressed a range of economic concerns, including data flows and market access.
Xi emphasized China’s commitment to high-quality development and opening up, positioning the EU as a crucial partner in economic and trade cooperation.
He envisioned the EU as a trusted collaborator in industrial and supply chain cooperation, aiming for mutual benefits and win-win results.
The summit delved into longstanding issues, such as efforts by Europe to “de-risk” its supply chains and the EU’s anti-subsidies investigation into Chinese-made electric vehicles.
China criticized the investigation, urging the EU to avoid using it for “trade protectionism.”
Xi called for the elimination of interference between China and the EU, a statement likely directed at the United States, which has taken actions, including enlisting the Netherlands, to curb China’s development of high-end semiconductors.
The EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, described their conversation with Xi as “good and candid.”
They discussed the main challenges amid increasing geopolitical frictions, emphasizing a commitment to balanced trade relations and pledging to enhance people-to-people exchanges.
During the meeting, Italy formally informed China of its exit from the Belt and Road Initiative, highlighting ongoing strains between the EU and China.
Xi discussed Belt and Road with EU leaders, expressing a willingness to connect it with the EU’s Global Gateway infrastructure plan.
However, deep issues remain, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade imbalances, and Chinese overcapacity exported to Europe.
Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, stressed the need to address these issues to foster a positive relationship between Beijing and Brussels.
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Nigeria Eyes BRICS Membership within Two Years as Foreign Minister Emphasizes Strategic Alignment
In a strategic move towards global economic collaboration, Nigeria is aspiring to join the BRICS group of nations within the next two years.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, affirmed that Nigeria is open to aligning itself with groups that demonstrate good intentions, well-meaning goals, and clearly defined objectives.
Tuggar stated, “Nigeria has come of age to decide for itself who her partners should be and where they should be; being multiple aligned is in our best interest.”
He emphasized the need for Nigeria to be part of influential groups like BRICS and the G-20, citing criteria such as population and economy size that position Nigeria as a natural candidate.
BRICS, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, stands as a formidable bloc of emerging market powers.
In a recent move to expand its influence, BRICS invited six additional nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, to join the group.
Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, has been absent from the BRICS alliance, prompting discussions on the potential economic and political advantages the bloc could offer the country.
Analysts have noted that BRICS membership could provide Nigeria with significant leverage on the global stage.
Vice President Kashim Shettima clarified that Nigeria did not apply for BRICS membership after the bloc’s announcement of new members in August.
Shettima emphasized the principled approach of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, highlighting a commitment to consensus building in decisions related to international partnerships.
As Nigeria eyes BRICS membership, the move is seen as a strategic step towards enhancing its global economic and diplomatic influence.
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