Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook September 19 – 23

Published

8 years ago

September 18, 2016

The US dollar gained against all the major currencies last week, following better than expected inflation report released on Friday. This, coupled with the comments from Federal Reserve officials bolstered the attractiveness of the US dollar as investors/traders jumped on it in anticipation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise borrowing cost.

While, speculations formed the bulk of the unsustainable dollars’ gains. It is imperative to note that the dollar’s gains was partly the reason import prices dropped from an increase of 0.1 percent in July to a decline of-0.2 percent in August, this drop in prices is expected to weigh on September consumer price index and damped August recorded progress.

Again, the drop in consumer spending (-0.3%) and worse than expected producer prices (0.0%) record in August are pivotal to Fed’s rate decision — especially with industrial production (-0.4%) and capacity utilization (75.5%) declining at the same time. Hence, the disconnection between macro data and current dollar bullish run should be closely watched per adventure the Bank of Japan decided as that will either shift current dollar gains to the Yen or boost it even further. This week, volatility is expected as the FOMC meets to announce economic projection and federal funds rate on Wednesday.

In Australia, the unemployment rate dropped to three-year low of 5.6 percent in August, despite the loss of 3,900 jobs. The contradictory result confirmed Capital Economics insinuation that the fall in jobs was a bit bigger than it looked. Also, the weak wages and low consumer spending at a record low unemployment rate point to an economy that is struggling and grossly ambiguous.

In the UK, the pound lost part of its gains last week after data revealed that producer price input dropped to 0.2 percent from 3.1 percent and that consumer prices remained unchanged at 0.6 percent even with the weak pound. Although, unemployment rate remained 4.9 percent, average earnings dropped from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent and consumer spending managed to exceed expectation by declining 0.2 percent against the 0.4 percent widely expected.

This week, the world awaits the Bank of Japan decision (BOJ) after over three years of unconventional monetary policy called qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE). The Hahuriko Kuroda team is expected to expand its monetary policy in an effort to boost exports and fight off insistent low consumer prices, and also halt the continuous gain of the Yen. Accordingly, the financial markets will experience high volatility this week as both the Fed and BOJ attempt to further their economic growth amid high global risks and uncertainties.

Overall, the financial market is yet to find its rhythm as central banks strive to strike a balance between fiscal and monetary policy. This week, GBPJPY and EURAUD top my list.

GBPJPY

After the series of weak macro data released last week, the pound lost more than two weeks’ gains against all the major currencies. While the reports were not that bad, the impact on the pound showed how vulnerable the UK economy is to eventualities, as such greater attention should be given to this pair this week. Especially with the Fed and BOJ economic statement due on Wednesday.

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Technically, after breaking 134.90 support level established in June. This pair has changed its outlook to the downside, while we need the BOJ decision to further validate this prediction. I am bearish on GBPJPY with 129.85 as the target, as long as 134.90 resistance holds.

EURAUD

Last week, our target hit at 1.5000. But since then Euro-area economic outlook has changed after Mario Draghi decision to leave rates unchanged. The Euro-area industrial production dropped from 0.8 percent to -1.1 percent, while both German and Euro-area ZEW economic sentiment also plunged. All these combined with weak manufacturing sector and post-Brexit uncertainties are weighing on the euro-zone economic outlook.

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While, the Australian economy on the other hand, improved its unemployment rate to three-year low and has consistently used its broad financial base to enforce investors’ confidence in its economy, even though capital importation has seen a decline in recent time. The economy remained vibrant against the Euro single currency. This week, I am bearish on EURAUD as long as 1.5000 resistance holds, 1.4777 remains the first target and 1.4665 target two.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

19 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

20 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.