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Dollar Climbs, Commodities Decline as Traders Assess Fed Timing

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Bureau Of Engraving And Printing Prints New Anti-Counterfeit 100 Dollar Bills

The Fed effect reverberated through global markets, pushing the dollar up and commodities down as traders increased bets on higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

The dollar climbed against all of its major peers, while global stocks were set for the longest slide since June after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials last week. Oil slumped below $47 a barrel as metals retreated. The S&P 500 Index advanced after a report showing further improvement in consumer purchases underscored the strength of the U.S. economy. Treasury yields retreated after Friday’s surge. Japanese shares led gains among the world’s biggest equity markets after central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated a pledge to boost monetary stimulus if needed.

Almost unthinkable two months ago, the prospect of a rate increase next month is now back on the table, with the probability rising to 42 percent from 24 percent in the space of a week. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Friday in Jackson Hole the case for an increase is getting stronger, while Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer indicated a tightening is possible at the next review. Those comments will sharpen the focus on Friday’s monthly U.S. payrolls report to gauge whether the economy is strong enough to sustain higher borrowing costs.

“If they manage to raise rates that will be relatively good news but it does entail a little bit more tightening in the system,” said Samy Chaar, a Geneva-based strategist at Lombard Odier, which manages about $170 billion.

A report on Monday showed American consumers boosted spending for a fourth month in July, bolstered by stronger income gains, sending the biggest part of the U.S. economy to a solid third-quarter start. The 0.3 percent rise matched forecasts and followed a 0.5 percent increase the prior month that was revised up, Commerce Department data showed. Incomes rose 0.4 percent, the most in three months. Payrolls data on Friday are forecast to show 180,000 jobs were added in August, according to economists.

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent at 9:30 a.m. in New York.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.3 percent. A gauge of auto makers posted the biggest decline, while sliding oil prices dragged energy producers lower. The volume of shares changing hands today was 70 percent lower than the 30-day average as U.K. markets were closed for a holiday.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.8 percent as almost two stocks declined for every one that advanced.

Fischer reiterated in an interview on CNBC that the possibility exists for two rate increases this year, starting as soon as September.

“The market has realized that the Fed meant it when it said two hikes are possible this year, repricing the September Fed hike chance,” said Aurelija Augulyte, a strategist at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen. It’s negative for “dollar-financing needs and puts pressure on commodity prices and hence, emerging-market exports,” she said.

Japanese stocks advanced as a weaker yen boosted the outlook for exporters. The Topix index climbed 2 percent as Toyota Motor Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp. jumped at least 3.9 percent.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.3 percent, after surging 0.8 percent on Friday. The yen fell 0.4 percent, after sliding 1.3 percent in the last session, and the euro fell to a two-week low. The pound weakened 0.5 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.8 percent, with South Korea’s won sliding 1 percent. Most of the central banks that are tracked by Bloomberg in both Asia and Europe have cut interest rates this year.
South Africa’s rand weakened 1.1 percent, after a 5.9 percent weekly loss. The currency posted its steepest slide of the year last week on concern that a stand-off between South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and the country’s police could lead to Gordhan’s ouster.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures returns on raw materials is down a fourth day, trimming a monthly advance as oil and precious metals fell.

West Texas Intermediate crude slid 1.4 percent to $46.98 a barrel amid doubts producers will agree on a deal to stabilize the market when suppliers meet next month for informal talks. A similar proposal was made in February, but a meeting in April ended with no final accord.

“The likelihood of them actually agreeing to some kind of production freeze is relatively low,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney, said in a Bloomberg television interview.

Gold extended its longest losing run since May to a 7th day, falling as much as 0.5 percent after losing 1.5 percent last week. Silver touched the lowest price in almost two months.

Bonds

Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield increased as much as four basis points to minus 0.035 percent, before being one basis point higher at minus 0.06 percent. The yield on similar-maturity French bonds was one basis point higher at 0.178 percent, having jumped earlier by four basis points.

Euro-area bonds are also coming under pressure with Spain’s acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy set to face a confidence vote Tuesday, and governments set to reissue debt after a summer lull that saw Germany the sole issuer last week. Countries in the region may sell about 30 billion euros ($34 billion) this week, according to Commerzbank AG.

“We treat the market rather defensively over the coming days and weeks” partly due to “heavy supply and Fed repricing,” Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris, wrote in a client note.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis point to 1.60 percent, after jumping six basis points to a two-month high in the last session. Fed funds futures showed there is a 65 percent chance that Yellen will raise interest rates by year-end.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Today Wednesday, 29 June 2022

The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30.

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The dollar to naira exchange rate today Wednesday, 29 June 2022 remained largely unchanged at the Investors and Exporters forex window and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s section of foreign exchange.

The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30. Forex traders transacted 206.65 million dollars at the official Investors and Exporters window on Tuesday.

In the CBN forex section, U.S. Dollar was sold at N415.6 by the apex bank to authorised dealers, slightly better than N415.64 it exchanged on Monday.

Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira appreciated from N509.824 to N508.53. However, against the Euro common currency, the value of the Naira dropped from N433.05 on Monday to N439.5 on Tuesday.

Dollar to Naira Black Market Exchange Rate

Forex scarcity continued to drag on the Naira value in the unregulated foreign exchange market popularly known as the black market.

On Wednesday, the Naira was exchanged at N614 for a United States Dollar on the black market. Representing another decline of N7 from N607 it was sold two weeks ago.

According to traders in that section of forex, rising demand amid a chronic scarcity is responsible for the wide foreign exchange rate of the local currency and could worsen if developed economies plunge into recession as widely projected.

Inflow into emerging economies like Nigeria will drop, hence impeding the apex bank’s ability to service the economy.

Crude Oil

Crude oil extended its gains for four consecutive days on Wednesday after it became obvious that OPEC and its allies will not be able to meet their targets as projected.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, appreciated to $120 a barrel on Wednesday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose from $99.33 per barrel a week ago to $112.37 per barrel.

According to Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA, said “A surprise drop by US API Crude Inventories by 3.8 million barrels helped the bullish momentum, with markets ignoring the rise in refined product stocks. Disruptions to Libyan and Ecuadorian production were supportive, but the Macron’s remarks yesterday around Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s limited production capacity seems to have been the main driver.”

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate, June 21, 2022

The Naira was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.

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us dollar

The Nigerian Naira remained largely flat against its global counterparts at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) section of foreign exchange on Tuesday.

The local currency was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.

The Euro common currency was the exception as the Naira declined by N1.308 from N437.4937 on Monday to N438.8017 Tuesday.

CBN Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Buying and Selling Rates

It is important to note that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rates are the rates the apex bank sells and buys from Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).

How Much is a Dollar to Naira in Black Market Today?

However, in the unregulated black market. The Naira remained weak against the United States Dollar and other global currencies. In Lagos and Abuja, the Nigerian Naira was exchanged at N610 to a United States Dollar, while at Ibadan it was sold at N605.

Operators are buying at N580 per US$1.

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 580
Selling Rate 610

Crude Oil

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, traded at $109 per barrel on Tuesday as the expected surge in summer demand outweighs supply concerns.  However, a global recession could force prices at some point this year.

Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA, in a note to Investors King said “Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing.”

Cryptocurrency

The unregulated cryptocurrency space remained largely in the red. However, Bitcoin, the world’s most dominant digital asset, pared losses to $21,258.31, representing an increase of 4.66%.

ETH, the token of the Ethereum protocol, appreciated by 3.80% to $1,158.30 a coin. Similarly, BNB inched higher by 3.52% to $224.16 a coin.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate, June 16, 2022

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Naira - Investors King

Naira declined against its global counterparts in the official foreign exchange market of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Thursday, June 16, 2022.

The Nigerian Naira dipped N0.07 against the United States Dollar from N415.72 on Wednesday to N415.79 Thursday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira remained bullish this week even though it gave back N1.1656 of the over N19 gained on Tuesday against the Pounds Sterling.

The CBN sold the Pounds Sterling at N503.5 on Thursday, compared to N502.4392 it exchanged on Wednesday and N521.491 it traded a week ago.

Also, against the Euro common currency, the local currency remained largely flat at N434.5421, the same rate (N434.5937) it was sold in the previous trading session. See the details below.

CBN Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN Buying and Selling Rates

Please note that the CBN exchange rates are the amount the central bank sells and buys from Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), the only approved forex deals as of today.

How Much is a Dollar to Naira in Black Market Today?

At the unregulated forex market popularly known as the black market, the Naira was sold at N610 in Abuja and Lagos on Thursday morning. In Ibadan, it was exchanged at N605.

The wide exchange rates when compared to the CBN rates were a result of chronic foreign exchange scarcity bedeviling the Nigerian economy. This scarcity forced businesses looking to purchase forex for raw material acquisition to patronise the black market despite CBN warnings against engaging in forex transactions with operators of that section. See selling and buying rates for US Dollars at the black market today below.

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 580
Selling Rate 610

Crude Oil

Brent crude oil against which Nigerian oil is price moderated to $117.92 a barrel from $123 on Tuesday following the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the interest rate by 75 basis points.

Oil prices rose on Monday after details of the ongoing crisis in Libya became public. It was reported that the country has shut down almost all its oil production fields, meaning about 1 million barrels per day is off the global market.

Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA in a note to Investors King said “The supply/demand situation, higher natural gas prices, the squeeze on refined products, and lost Russian production all mean that oil prices remain constructive at these levels for now.”

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