The Nigerian stocks equities rebounded last week after two weeks of bear run, appreciating by 1.48 per cent following renewed demand on the back of bargain hunting and positive reactions to the results impressive results of Access Bank Plc and Guaranty Trust Bank Plc(GTBank).
Investors’ sentiments had remained negative in the past weeks due to weak half year (H1) corporate results of most companies. Also, many investors saw the fixed income market as a safer investment destination following the recent hike in Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), leading to a significant flow of investments into the fixed income market. This development priced down most equities, thereby creating an entry opportunity for discerning investors.
The renewed demand for equities by such discerning investors led the market to close on a bullish note last week with the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share Index, rising by 1.48 per cent to close at 28,642.25. Similarly, market capitalisation added N117.4 billion to be at N9. 5 trillion. Trading volume also improved by 20 per cent to N12.940 billion staked on 1.375 billion, up from N10.711 billion invested in 1.361 billion shares.
With the exception of the NSE Insurance Plc and NSE Oil and Gas Indices that depreciated, other sectoral indicators appreciated while NSE ASeM Index closed flat. The NSE Consumer and Industrial Goods indices advanced the most, up 2.6 per cent apiece on the account of rally in Nigerian Breweries Plc ( 5.8 per cent) Unilever Nigeria(10.2 per cent), Lafarge Africa Plc (+5.1 per cent) and Dangote Cement (+1.7 per cent). The Banking Sector Index rose 2.1 per cent on gains in GTBank (+4.1 per cent), which reported a six month gross earnings and profit after tax (PAT) of N209.9 billion and N77.5 billion respectively. Similarly, Access Bank gained 1.6 per cent after reporting gross earnings and PAT of N185.2 billion and N39.5 billion in that order. Conversely, the NSE Insurance Index declined 1.2 per cent as a result of losses in Continental Reinsurance Plc (-3.0 per cent) and Custodian (-2.3 per cent).
Daily Performance Summary
The bulls dominated the market , being in control for four days. The NSE ASI trended northwards from Monday to Wednesday, appreciating 0.26 per cent, 0.27 per cent and 0.18 per cent in the first three trading sessions before easing on Thursday due to profit taking. However, the bulls resurged on Friday, up 0.6 per cent. Trading had opened for the week on Monday on a bullish note, with the NSE appreciating by 0.26 per cent to close at 27,316.52. Similarly, the NSE Industrial Goods Index rose 1.98 per cent and Consumer Goods (+0.86 per cent).On the other hand, the NSE Oil and Gas (-2.23 per cent) and NSE Banking indices suffered losses of 2.23 per cent and 1.66 per cent respectively. Market breadth was negative with 11 gainers versus 37 losers. Total volume traded decreased by 45.41 per cent to 213.64 million shares, valued at N2.05 billion, and traded in 3,742 deals.
The bullish sentiments persisted on Tuesday following sustained interest in large cap stocks such as Zenith Bank, GTBank and Nigerian Breweries as the NSE ASI rose by 0.27 per cent. On Wednesday, the positive momentum in the equities market continued with the NSE ASI gaining 0.2 per cent to close at 27,437.25. Market capitalisation added N16.6 billion to close at N9.4trillion.
However, the market could not sustain the bullish run on Thursday as the NSE ASI decline by 0.1 per cent to close at 27,420.99, while market capitalisation N5.6 billion to be N9.4 trillion. The market was dragged by sell-offs in GTBank (-1.2 per cent), Guinness (-3.8 per cent), Union Bank (-4.8 per cent) and Transcorp (-4.6 per cent).
Meanwhile, market turnover stood at 1.375 billion shares worth N12.940 billion in 16,915 deals were traded by investors on the floor of the exchange in contrast to a total of 1.361 billion shares valued at N10.711 billion that exchanged hands the previous week in 16,070 deals.
The Financial Services Industry led the activity chart with 1.195 billion shares valued at N8.631 billion traded in 10,365 deals, thus contributing 86.90 per cent and 66.70 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The Conglomerates Industry followed with 76.489 million shares worth N154.736 million in 964 deals. The third place was occupied by the Consumer Goods Industry with a turnover of 38.048 million shares worth N1.768 billion in 2,676 deals.
Trading in the top three equities namely, United Bank for Africa Plc, Access Bank Plc and FBN Holdings Plc accounted for 559.065 million shares worth N2.452 billion in 3,690 deals, contributing 40.66 per cent and 18.95 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.
Also traded during the week were a total of 57,828 units of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) valued at N766,162.96 executed in 37 deals, compared with a total of 1,003 million units valued at N12.116 million transacted last week in 43 deals.
A total of 3,127 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N3.057 million were traded in six deals compared to a total of 4,044 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N4.062 million transacted last week in six deals.
Gainers and Losers
The price movement chat showed that 25 equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than 18 equities of the previous week. Conversely, 39 equities depreciated in price, higher than the 38 equities of the previous week, while 116 equities remained unchanged lower than one hundred and 124 equities recorded in the preceding week. Unilever Nigeria Plc led the price gainers with 10.2 per cent, followed by N.E.M Insurance Plc with 10 per cent. Nigerian Breweries Plc gained 5.7 per cent, while Lafarge Africa Plc 5.1 per cent. Other top gainers include: Eterna Plc (5.1 per cent); Seven-Up Bottling Company Plc (4.9 per cent); Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc (4.3 per cent); GTBank Plc (4.1 per cent); Fidelity Bank Plc (4.0 per cent); Livestock Feeds Plc (3.3 per cent).
On the contrary, Champion Breweries Plc led the price losers with 19.5 per cent, trailed by Wema Bank Plc with 15.1 per cent, while National Aviation Handling Company Plc appreciated by 14.0 per cent. Cement Company of Northern Nigeria Plc appreciated by 11.9 per cent.
Other losers are: Fidson Healthcare Plc (11.6 per cent); AIICO Insurance Plc (10 per cent); Conoil Plc (9.6 per cent), UACN Property Development Company Plc (9.4 per cent); Unity Bank Plc (8.1 per cent) and International Breweries Plc (8.0 per cent.
OPEC+ Delegates Seek Steady Oil Production Levels as Committee of Ministers Meet Next Week
With the recent hike in the prices of oil at the international markets, the delegates of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have canvassed for a steady oil production output.
This is coming a few days before the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the organisation would meet to deliberate on the demand and supply chain of crude oil in the global space.
The meeting of the Advisory Committee of Ministers is said to hold online as top OPEC officials continue to push for unchanged oil production levels.
Investors King reports that there has been an uncertain recovery in global demand for oil as international oil prices had climbed in the past two weeks.
It was gathered that Saudi Arabia and its partners are planning to hold a review of output levels on February 1, 2023 after agreeing significant cutbacks late last year to keep world crude markets in balance.
While awaiting clarity on the recovery in consumption in China and the impact of sanctions on Russian supply, the delegates said they expected the Ministers not it tamper with the output.
The Opec+ is embracing conservative stance even China, the biggest oil importer in the world battles devastating effects of COVID-19 pandemic.
Also, Opec+ is expecting the full impact of European Union sanctions on member-country Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts at Eurasia Group have said, in a report, that there are possibilities of Opec+ maintaining the status quo beyond next week’s meeting.
According to the report, prices of oil have stabilised while there are significant levels of uncertainty surrounding both supply and demand.
It was gathered that feedback from the top OPEC hierarchy would go a long way in forming the decision to hold steady or not.
The Secretary-General of petroleum exporting countries, Haitham Al-Ghais has expressed hope on the global economy as the nascent rebound in China is tempered by weakness in advanced economies.
For Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Opec+ would be proactive and preemptive to keep markets in equilibrium.
The head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC, Helima Croft, said there were pointers that Saudi Arabia wants to adopt the policy of preemption and keep production constraints in place until there are clear indications that there is sufficient demand for additional supply.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Energy Aspects Ltd. revealed that Opec+ will only start to reverse its supply curbs, which were formally about 2 million barrels a day, and increase production in the second half of the year.
At this period, accelerating demand would have tightened the market.
Meanwhile, the 23-nation alliance is scheduled to meet at OPEC’s Vienna headquarters in early June to review production levels for other months in the year.
Oil Gains Marginally on Possible Demand Recovery in China
Oil prices inched slightly higher on Wednesday as optimism for a demand recovery in China and expectations that major producers will maintain current output policy offset global recession worries.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, appreciated by 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $86.30 per barrel after falling by 2.3% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.20, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday.
“Expectations that China’s fuel demand will recover in the second half of the year are growing and are likely to support market sentiment,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.
Analysts from the Bank of America Securities said the reopening of the Chinese economy after years of tough COVID restrictions could unleash a large wave of pent-up demand over the next 18 months.
On the supply side, volumes should remain steady for the medium term as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, is expected to keep its output policy unchanged.
An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the producer group’s current oil output policy when it meets next week, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday, as hopes for higher Chinese demand are balanced by worries over inflation and the global economy.
OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.
However, gains in oil prices were capped by a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories that was reported after the market settled on Tuesday.
U.S. crude stocks rose by about 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 20, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. That was triple the forecast for an about 1 million build in a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday.
Nissan’s Kikukawa, however, expects the build “to be temporary as the supply disruptions from a cold snap in the United States a few weeks ago would only impact data in the next couple of weeks”.
Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be released later on Wednesday.
Kikukawa expects WTI to trade in a range between $75 and $85 a barrel in the coming weeks.
Markets are also watching out for interest rate decisions from central banks for more trading cues.
“It seems that the absence of hawkish Fed comments from the current blackout period has removed a key overhang for risk sentiments for now, providing some renewed traction back into growth,” Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, said in a note.
Investors are waiting to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will “react to recent downside surprise in inflation and growth” when it meets next week, the analyst added.
Fuel Scarcity: IPMAN Decries 50% Reduction of Product Supply Since July 2022
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN has faulted the oil sector’s incapability to cater for the full fuel supply order of oil marketers nationwide.
Investors King learnt that the volume of products supplied to marketers dropped by 50 percent since July, 2022 which has worsened the fuel scarcity situation.
The Deputy National President of IPMAN, Zahra Mustapha, during a Television interview stressed that there is confusion in the nation’s oil sector.
Mustapha, who said the fuel subsidy issue is complex, explained that the federal government is overwhelmed by the burden of fuel subsidy which is not sustainable.
“The fact of the matter is that we are in a very complex situation because the burden of subsidy that the government is carrying is no more sustainable and the volume that the NNPC for now, being the sole importer of the petroleum product, PMS, has been hit hard, because of that the supply that we receive as the marketers at the loading point is being reduced by over 50 per cent.
“It doesn’t seem that they (NNPC) are bringing in more, if they are, we will be getting the volume we usually get before. Since July/August last year the volume we receive now is not up to 40 or 50 percent of what we usually get. As of today, the volume we are getting is not enough,” he said.
Mustapha stated that the situation has been reported to the oil sector regulatory bodies and the oil marketers are expecting their actions.
He further lamented the high supply cost and transportation which makes them sell it at a much higher rate to the consumers.
“We are supposed to get this product at N148 but we are buying at N22o and it keeps increasing. 240 in Lagos, 235 in Warri, 240 in Port Harcourt, in Calabar it is as high as N250 per litre for marketers, and you buy and transport yourself to where your retail outlet is. We cannot buy the product between 220 to 240 naira, transport it for about N50, which is already N300, then expect the marketer to sell to the public for N200 or N190. It is not realisable.
“There are a lot of confusions in the industry, which the government must come in and address these confusions so that the common man can get the product for the approved price,” said Mustapha.
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