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Kachikwu: Nigeria Will Need Extra 900,000b/d to Recover Oil Lost to Militancy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has said that Nigeria will have to increase oil output by an average of 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) in order to recover crude oil that has been shut in to a series of militant attacks on oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta in recent months.

Kachikwu, who spoke to CNN’s Richard Quest last night, however said he was not particularly optimistic about the possible talks on a production freeze by other oil producing countries to bolster prices, saying similar efforts a few months ago had failed.

Despite his lack of confidence, the price of crude oil rose yesterday following reports that Russia and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may resume dialogue on a production freeze.

The petroleum minister said the federal government was in continuing dialogue with militants and their representatives in the Niger Delta and expressed confidence that in the next one or two months, a resolution will be reached to end the attacks on oil assets.

“There’s a lot of dialogue, a lot of security meetings and we expect that in the next one or two months, we will arrive at a lasting resolution on the problem in the Niger Delta,” he said.

He added that Nigeria would need to produce on average 900,000b/d extra to recover oil and the attendant revenue lost to the militancy in recent months.

“We are producing some 1.5 million barrels per day and would need on average 900,000 barrels per day to catch up on what we have lost. If we can achieve peace, this will be feasible,” he said.

However, when he was reminded by Quest that an extra 900,000b/d would run contrary to possible talks next month on a production freeze in order to shore up oil prices, Kachikwu said he was not optimistic that a consensus could be reached on an output cap, as efforts in the past had failed.

“I’m not too optimistic about an output freeze, because we tried this in the past and it failed.

“Also, OPEC accounts for 30 per cent of total global output, so we will need to be aggressive in our engagements with producers that account for 70 per cent of output, so it is only if a consensus is reached, then me have some hope,” he explained.

On yesterday’s criticism by parents of the Chibok girls that the military and its resources were being diverted to secure oil facilities instead of recovering the schoolgirls who were kidnapped from their school by Boko Haram two years ago, he said it was not true that the girls were less important than oil facilities in the Niger Delta.

“It is not true that oil facilities are more of a priority than the Chibok girls. As you know President Muhammadu Buhari from the outset of his administration built a coalition with neighbouring countries to defeat the terrorism in the North-east.

“He also had to set up a panel to probe the diversion of funds meant for the procurement of arms to fight the insurgency. All these suggest that the insurgency in the North-east is a major priority of this government.

“I am a father and I can imagine what it means to have my children kept in captivity in a forest and the president feels the same way. So he has not given up the girls,” the minister said.

Meanwhile, the price of crude oil rose yesterday following reports that Russia and OPEC may resume dialogue on a production cap.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the global oil benchmark Brent crude rose 0.9 per cent to $47.38 a barrel on London’s Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) futures exchange. It however traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures at $44.86 a barrel, up 0.8 per cent.

Both the WSJ and UK’s Telegraph reported that the price movements were triggered by comments made by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak that market action was likely if discussions at an upcoming meeting in Algeria between OPEC and its other ally producers go well.

According to WSJ, prices have gained since Saudi’s al-Falih signalled last week that his country was open to measures to stabilise the market which has been struggling with oversupply for the past two years.

Saudi is the biggest producer among members of OPEC and historically seen as the de facto leader of the oil cartel. The OPEC meeting in Algeria is scheduled as an informal gathering in September.

The Telegraph also reported that the price movement was in reaction to the OPEC Algeria meeting where the focus is expected to return to a possible supply cap deal after similar talks in Doha failed earlier this year.

Novak confirmed Russia’s participation at the Algeria meeting to Saudi newspaper, Asharq al-Awsat. Novak stated that his country – the world’s third largest supplier of oil – was also involved in early discussions.

He said: “We are co-operating in the framework of consultations regarding the oil market with OPEC countries and producers from outside the organisation, and are determined to continue dialogue to achieve market stability.”

At the weekend, al-Falih told the Saudi Press Agency that “we are going to have a ministerial meeting of IEF in Algeria next month, and there is an opportunity for OPEC and major exporting non-OPEC ministers to meet and discuss the market situation, including any possible action that may be required to stabilise the market”.

He added: “We’ve said before that market rebalancing is already taking place but the process of clearing crude and product inventories will take time. We are on the right track and prices should reflect that.”

Oil price recovery from a 12-year low of $28 a barrel in January had floundered last month when global economic fears reignited concern that there was a glut in the market, causing prices to slump back to $41.66 a barrel.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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