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Dollar Slumps on Fed Bets as European Stocks Retreat With Oil

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Dollar

The dollar weakened versus all of its major peers and gold jumped the most in two weeks as prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike this year remained subdued. Equities declined in Europe and Asia as oil retreated.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank to its weakest since June ahead of U.S. reports on housing starts, inflation and industrial output. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell the most in two weeks as U.S. stock index futures declined. Japanese shares led losses in Asia as the yen climbed toward 100 per dollar. Crude snapped a three-day surge before American stockpiles data and nickel fell following its biggest jump of the month. U.K. government debt gained before the Bank of England conducts a bond-buying auction.

The dollar is losing ground and global equities are near a one-year year high as lackluster data in the world’s biggest economies fuel speculation the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates amid monetary easing in Asia and Europe. The probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase in 2016 is below 50 percent and the greenback has lost ground versus 15 of 16 major peers in the past month.

“The yen is being driven by the dollar’s weakness, spurred on by increasing expectations the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates this year,” said Nicholas Teo, a strategist at KGI Fraser Securities in Singapore. “If the Fed doesn’t move this year, there’s a risk of steeper moves next year. That’s very dangerous.”

U.S. data on Tuesday are forecast to show consumer prices were unchanged in July from the previous month, while housing starts were at about the same level as in June and industrial output gains slowed. The U.K. will also report on consumer-price growth, which will be the first hard data on how the economy performed in the month following the country’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

Currencies

The yen strengthened 0.9 percent to 100.33 versus the greenback as of 8:12 a.m. London time, while Bloomberg’s dollar index sank 0.4 percent.

“The yen could test the 100 mark due to further softening of the dollar,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “A sustained break of that level would up the pressure on the BOJ to take steps at its September meet to support it.”

The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index climbed to its highest since June 2015 as South Korea’s won strengthened 0.9 percent and the currencies of Malaysia, Hungary and Poland gained at least 0.4 percent.

The pound rose 0.1 percent to $1.2893, after a Monday close of $1.2880 that was the weakest since June 1985. The currency has lost more than 2 percent this month versus the dollar, the worst performance among major currencies.

Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.6 percent, slipping for a third day.
Linde AG jumped 4.4 percent after it was reported to have held merger talks with Praxair Inc., a deal that would create the world’s largest supplier of industrial gases.

Futures on the S&P 500 were 0.2 percent lower, after the U.S. benchmark ended the last session at a record high. Asset managers in the U.S. are favoring stocks over Treasuries, while active equity funds are the most bullish since 2008, according to Bank of America Corp.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 0.2 percent, extending Monday’s retreat from a one-year high. Japan’s Topix index slid 1.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index retreated from its best close since January. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was little changed near a nine-month high.

Bank of Guiyang Co. soared by the 44 percent daily limit on its first day of trading in Shanghai even after a spate of warnings that the nation’s bad loans are understated and lenders may need bailouts in coming years. Jet Airways India Ltd. declined for a sixth day in Mumbai after reporting a 54 percent drop in first-quarter profit.

Oil fell 0.8 percent to $45.37 a barrel in New York as the market weighed expectations for U.S. stockpiles rising further from a record against speculation that informal OPEC talks next month may revive discussions to freeze output. It jumped 10 percent over the last three trading sessions as Saudi Arabia indicated it’s prepared to discuss stabilizing the market. U.S. crude inventories probably increased by 900,000 barrels, rising for a fourth week and keeping supplies above the five-year average for this time of year.

Most industrial metals slipped after an index of the main contracts traded on the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest gain in two weeks on Monday. Nickel dropped 1.5 percent in London, after climbing 2 percent in the last session, and zinc was down 0.3 percent.

Gold added 0.7 percent, buoyed by expectations U.S. interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon. Platinum gained more than 1 percent.

Bonds

The U.K.’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.52 percent, near a record low, before the Bank of England seeks to buy 1.17 billion pounds ($1.5 billion) of debt due in more than 15 years as part of its expanded quantitative-easing program. The central bank fell short of achieving a similar target at last week’s bond-buying auction, spurring gains in longer-dated gilts.

The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade fell three basis points to 1.53 percent. Rates on similar-maturity debt in Germany and Japan decreased by about one basis point to minus 0.09 percent and minus 0.10 percent, respectively.

Noble Group Ltd.’s dollar-denominated bonds fell for a second day after the Singapore-listed commodity trader’s debt rating was cut two levels by Moody’s Investors Service, which said liquidity could come under pressure over the next 12 months amid weaker-than-expected profitability. The notes due 2020 fell to 77.26 cents on the dollar, giving a yield of 15.52 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Netanyahu Stands Firm as US Halts Bomb Shipment Over Rafah Invasion Warning

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Netanyahu

Amidst escalating tensions between Israel and the United States, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has adopted a defiant stance following the US decision to halt a shipment of bombs and warned against Israel’s potential invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

In a bold statement, Netanyahu declared, “If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone,” emphasizing Israel’s resolve to pursue its objectives despite opposition.

The Prime Minister’s comments, delivered via social media and a subsequent interview with American talk show host Dr. Phil, underscore Israel’s determination to address security threats posed by the Gaza Strip, particularly by Hamas militants operating in Rafah.

Netanyahu reiterated the necessity of military action in Rafah to eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions, condemned Hamas’s history of violence and reiterated Israel’s commitment to achieving victory and ensuring the safety of its citizens.

The US administration, led by President Joe Biden, expressed concerns over the potential humanitarian impact of an Israeli invasion of Rafah, prompting the decision to withhold additional offensive weapons shipments to Israel.

Biden’s statement echoed broader international apprehensions about the escalation of violence and civilian casualties in the conflict-stricken region.

However, Netanyahu remained resolute in Israel’s approach, asserting the country’s right to defend itself against security threats. He emphasized Israel’s efforts to minimize civilian casualties and facilitate the evacuation of civilians from Rafah before any military action.

Despite the US’s decision to pause the bomb shipment, Netanyahu affirmed Israel’s commitment to its longstanding alliance with the US. He acknowledged past disagreements between the two nations but expressed optimism about resolving current tensions through dialogue and cooperation.

In response, White House officials reiterated the US’s support for Israel’s security while urging restraint and emphasizing the need to avoid actions that could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The administration clarified that the decision to halt the bomb shipment was aimed at preventing potential civilian casualties in Rafah.

The confrontation between Israel and the US underscores the complexity of navigating regional conflicts and balancing strategic interests. As tensions persist, both nations face the challenge of reconciling their respective security imperatives with broader humanitarian concerns, seeking to avert further escalation while addressing the root causes of the conflict in the Middle East.

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EFCC Declares Former Kogi Governor, Yahaya Bello, Wanted Over N80.2 Billion Money Laundering Allegations

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Yahaya Bello

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has escalated its pursuit of justice by declaring former Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, wanted over alleged money laundering amounting to N80.2 billion.

In a first-of-its-kind action, the EFCC announced Bello’s wanted status in connection with the alleged embezzlement of funds during his tenure as governor.

The commission, armed with a 19-count criminal charge, accused Bello and his cohorts of conspiring to launder the hefty sum, which was purportedly diverted from state coffers for personal gain.

The declaration of Bello as a wanted fugitive came after a series of failed attempts by the EFCC to effect his arrest.

Despite an ex-parte order from Justice Emeka Nwite of the Federal High Court, Abuja, mandating the EFCC to apprehend and produce Bello in court for arraignment, the former governor managed to evade capture with the reported assistance of his successor, Governor Usman Ododo.

This latest development shows the challenges faced by law enforcement agencies in holding powerful individuals accountable for their actions.

However, it also demonstrates the unwavering commitment of the EFCC to uphold the rule of law and ensure that justice is served, irrespective of the status or influence of the accused.

In response to the EFCC’s declaration, the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, issued a stern warning to Bello, stating that fleeing from the law would not resolve the allegations against him.

Fagbemi urged Bello to honor the EFCC’s invitation and cooperate with the investigation process, saying it is important to uphold the rule of law and respect the authority of law enforcement agencies.

The EFCC’s pursuit of Bello underscores the agency’s mandate to combat corruption and financial crimes, sending a strong message that individuals implicated in corrupt practices will be held accountable for their actions.

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Concerns Mount Over Security as National Identity Card Issuance Shifts to Banks

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NIMC enrolment

Amidst the National Identity Management Commission’s (NIMC) recent announcement that the issuance of the proposed new national identity card will be facilitated through applicants’ respective banks, concerns are escalating regarding the security implications of involving financial institutions in the distribution process.

The federal government, in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigeria Inter-bank Settlement System (NIBSS), introduced a new identity card with payment functionality, aimed at streamlining access to social and financial services.

However, the decision to utilize banks as distribution channels has sparked apprehension among industry stakeholders.

Mr. Kayode Adegoke, Head of Corporate Communications at NIMC, clarified that applicants would request the card by providing their National Identification Number (NIN) through various channels, including online portals, NIMC offices, or their respective banks.

Adegoke emphasized that the new National ID Card would serve as a single, multipurpose card, encompassing payment functionality, government services, and travel documentation.

Despite NIMC’s assurances, concerns have been raised regarding the necessity and security implications of introducing a new identity card system when an operational one already exists.

Chief Deolu Ogunbanjo, President of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers, questioned the rationale behind the new General Multipurpose Card (GMPC), citing NIMC’s existing mandate to issue such cards under Act No. 23 of 2007.

Ogunbanjo highlighted the successful implementation of MobileID by NIMC, which has provided identity verification for over 15 million individuals.

He expressed apprehension about integrating the new ID card with existing MobileID systems and raised concerns about data privacy and unauthorized duplication of ID cards.

Moreover, stakeholders are seeking clarification on the responsibilities for card blocking, replacement, and delivery in case of loss or theft, given the involvement of multiple parties, including banks, in the issuance process.

The shift towards utilizing banks for identity card issuance raises fundamental questions about data security, privacy, and the integrity of the identification process.

With financial institutions playing a pivotal role in distributing sensitive government documents, there are valid concerns about potential vulnerabilities and risks associated with this approach.

As the debate surrounding the security implications of the new national identity card continues to intensify, stakeholders are calling for greater transparency, accountability, and collaboration between government agencies and financial institutions to address these concerns effectively.

The paramount importance of safeguarding citizens’ personal information and ensuring the integrity of the identity verification process cannot be overstated, especially in an era of increasing digital interconnectedness and heightened cybersecurity threats.

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