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European Stocks Climb With Asia Shares; Pound Weakens Before BOE

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European equities gained while Asian stocks advanced, rebounding from their worst day since the aftermath of the Brexit vote, as crude oil held onto a recovery. The pound retreated with the Bank of England expected to cut interest rates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained after U.S. shares advanced Wednesday. Mining shares and energy producers drove the Asian index up from its lowest level since June 24, the day when referendum results showed Britain had decided to leave the European Union. U.S. crude extended gains into a second session after the steepest drop in American gasoline supplies since April soothed concern over a glut. The greenback rose before Friday’s jobs data and metals declined amid concern about increased supply from China.

The global equity rebound that took hold in July started to falter as August opened, with oil descending into a bear market and data failing to bolster confidence in the world economy. While central banks and governments have signaled unprecedented support, Japan’s latest efforts — which include monetary and fiscal stimulus — haven’t had their intended effect amid concern the plans won’t be enough to revive price growth. The Bank of England is expected to cut benchmark interest rates on Thursday, while non-farm payrolls data in the U.S. Friday could provide clues for Federal Reserve policy.

“The theme remains dominant in markets that monetary policy has effectively done as much as it can and that reflation, if required, should come via other means,” Sharon Zollner, a senior economist in Auckland at ANZ Bank of New Zealand Ltd., said in a note to clients. “The reality is that interest rates remain at record-low levels and, in an environment of moderate growth and low inflation, that is supportive of higher-yielding assets and Asia-Pacific markets should continue to benefit, as long as the growth picture holds together.”

Stocks

The European index rose 0.5 percent as of 8:07 a.m. in London. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent, following last session’s 1.9 percent slide. The index, which jumped 5.8 percent in July, is down about 1 percent this week.

The Topix index climbed 0.9 percent as the yen reversed some of its recent advance. The stocks gauge had also dropped by the most in more than five weeks on Wednesday.

India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex advanced 0.2 percent, led by automakers and logistics companies that benefit from the passage of a national sales tax bill on Wednesday. Tata Motors Ltd., owner of Jaguar Land Rover, jumped 4 percent to be the strongest performer.

Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, following a 0.3 percent increase in the underlying index on Wednesday. The U.S. benchmark had fallen 0.8 percent over the previous two sessions.

“There’s slow movement in a market that’s looking for a reason to go up or go down — it just hasn’t found any,” said Jeff Carbone, managing partner of Cornerstone Financial Partners, which oversees almost $1.1 billion in assets in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We haven’t seen that breakout that would suggest the market is based on fundamentals, it’s still very tied to central banks.”

Currencies

The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 101.54 per dollar, adding to its 0.4 percent slide on Wednesday.

Japan’s currency has gained about 0.5 percent this week, as traders weigh the BOJ’s decision last Friday to only bolster purchases of exchange-traded funds, as well as a fiscal package flagged Tuesday by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The Aussie added 0.1 percent and Malaysia’s ringgit bounced with oil, climbing 0.3 percent from a four-day low. The rupee rose 0.1 percent.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, was up 0.1 percent after rising 0.3 percent on Wednesday, when emerging-market currencies led declines.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters Wednesday that a rate hike “could be appropriate this year.” Odds on the Fed boosting benchmark borrowing costs in 2016 have dropped to 39 percent, with last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. growth data damping expectations of tightening.

Sterling declined 0.2 percent to $1.3295. The BOE is expected to cut its benchmark from a record low of 0.5 percent and may boost an asset purchase program that stands at 375 billion pounds ($500 billion).

Bonds

Australian sovereign bonds retreated, with 10-year yields rising two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.95 percent, building on Wednesday’s 11 basis-point jump. Similar maturity Japanese debt yielded minus 0.08 percent, up 1 1/2 basis points.

Treasuries were little changed, with yields on notes due in a decade steady at 1.55 percent. Ten-year rates jumped at the start of this week, as the record-setting rally in global bonds appeared to falter. Yields on German 10-year bunds were also steady, at minus 0.04 percent.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $40.84 per barrel, after Wednesday’s 3.3 percent rebound that came when U.S. government data showed gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.26 million barrels last week, the most since April. Brent crude fell 0.2 percent to $43 a barrel.

WTI is still down more than 1 percent this week, after the commodity sold off on Monday and Tuesday amid resurgent concern over a global glut. Citigroup Inc. to Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted the slump would be short-lived, while Societe Generale SA said the price correction would be limited due to a better balance between supply and demand.

“We’re seeing rebalancing,” Scott Darling, regional head of oil and gas at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “We think in the near-term, oil will be under pressure because demand is moderating.”

Gold for immediate delivery dropped 0.5 percent to $1,351.59 an ounce, after declining 0.4 percent on Wednesday. Last session’s retreat halted the precious metal’s longest rally in a month.

Copper dropped 2 percent to $10,525 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Nickel also fell 2 percent, while Aluminum was down 0.4 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Nigeria Eyes Oil Production Surpassing OPEC Quota Amidst Positive Projections and Global Collaborations

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In a strategic move to exceed the OPEC-imposed oil production quotas, Nigeria, led by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, is on a trajectory to outperform expectations.

The recent 36th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting projected Nigeria’s oil production quota at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024.

However, Lokpobiri revealed in a Twitter post that Nigeria currently produces 1.5 million bpd for crude and 300,000 bpd for condensate.

Addressing concerns about Nigeria’s ability to meet these targets, Lokpobiri assured, “What we are producing is much more than what is projected in the 2024 budget estimate.”

Despite discrepancies between OPEC’s projections and Nigeria’s budget estimates, the minister expressed confidence that the country would surpass the outlined targets.

Furthermore, to fortify Nigeria’s position in the global energy landscape, Lokpobiri engaged in a pivotal meeting with Baker Hughes Chairman, Lorenzo Simonelli, on the sidelines of the ongoing 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28).

Baker Hughes, a global energy technology company, expressed keen interest in sustaining and enhancing its investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. Simonelli emphasized the company’s commitment to contributing to Nigeria’s energy transformation agenda and collaborating on sustainable energy practices.

Lokpobiri commended Baker Hughes for its longstanding partnership with Nigeria and affirmed the government’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for investments in the refinery sector.

The meeting set the stage for a promising collaboration that aligns with Nigeria’s objectives and contributes to global sustainable energy goals.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Face Downward Pressure Amid OPEC+ Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices find themselves caught in the crossfire of geopolitical tensions and the aftermath of the recent OPEC+ decision on Monday.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeran oil is priced, shed 0.9% or 73 cents settled at $78.15 per barrel at about 7 am Nigerian time while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil experienced an 0.8% decline or 64 cents to $73.43 a barrel.

“Crude seems to be under continued pressure from the OPEC+ decision. Some degree of discounting of the deeper OPEC+ cuts is justified, but as of now, the crude complex has completely disregarded them,” stated Vandana Hari, the founder of Vanda Insights, an oil market analysis provider.

Last week, oil prices suffered a slump of over 2%, fueled by investor skepticism regarding the depth of supply cuts committed to by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+.

Lingering concerns about sluggish global manufacturing activity added to the pessimism.

The OPEC+ cuts, declared as voluntary on Thursday, have raised doubts about the full implementation of the proposed reductions and left investors questioning the metrics for measurement.

As the global focus shifts to the Middle East, geopolitical tensions resurface with renewed hostilities in Gaza.

Against this backdrop, three commercial vessels faced attacks in international waters in the southern Red Sea, leading to heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.

While the resumption of the Israel-Hamas conflict injected a bullish momentum into oil prices, analysts, including CMC Markets’ Tina Teng, remain cautious.

“However, oil prices may continue to be under pressure for the time being due to China’s disappointing economic recovery and the ramp-up of U.S. production”, Teng stated.

Amid this intricate web of challenges, the specter of additional sanctions on Russia and a potential pause in sanctions relief for OPEC member Venezuela by the White House further add layers of complexity to the already delicate global oil market.

As the world watches, uncertainties persist, shaping the future trajectory of oil prices in an intricate dance of geopolitics and market dynamics.

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Commodities

Gold Hits Record High and Bitcoin Surpasses $40,000 in Asian Markets Despite Fed’s Cautious Stance

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gold bars - Investors King

Gold rose to a record high of $2,135.39 per ounce on Monday during the Asian trading session while Bitcoin broke $40,000 a coin resistance levels. 

This was despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious reminder that policymakers are not in a rush to ease interest rates.

Market analysts observed an influx of investments into gold and Bitcoin, attributing the trend to mounting expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the coming year.

Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne, noted, “Markets are piling in on the rate cut bets. Gold can run higher and will do so at the earliest sign of a recession.”

The rally in these alternative assets persisted even as the dollar experienced a slight uptick, and two-year Treasuries retraced some of Friday’s robust gains.

Traders maintained their bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, with swaps pricing in a full reduction by May and projecting a full point of easing by December 2024.

Powell, while stating that the central bank is ready to hike further if necessary, emphasized that policy is “well into restrictive territory.”

This surge in gold and Bitcoin comes on the heels of US stocks closing at their highest since March 2022. However, concerns linger as signs emerge that American households, after a period of exuberant spending, might be starting to pull back.

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, cautioned that the recent rebound in shares leaves them technically overbought and at risk of a consolidation or short-term pullback.

As the global economy continues to face uncertainties, all eyes will be on key events this week, including Australian growth, Chinese inflation, and US non-farm payrolls data.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market anticipates potential approval of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, adding another layer of excitement to the financial landscape.

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