Forex

Forex Week Outlook July 25 – 29

Published

8 years ago

July 24, 2016

The US economy last week led global financial markets with a series of positive economic data that further confirmed the economy is growing. The housing starts rose 4.8 percent to 1.19 million units, while the labor market continued its improvement with a three month low unemployment claims of 253,000.

Whereas in the U.K., Brexit effect has begun to crystallize as consumer spending waned to six-month low. Also, both the services and manufacturing PMI shrank, plunging business activity to over seven years low. The gauge of private sector economy declined to 47.7, below the 50 level that signify contraction from expansion. In short, things are beginning to look rough for the world’s fifth largest economy.

In Europe, manufacturing sector recorded substantial improvement compared to the U.K., although the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Brexit is expected to weigh on growth going forward — yet he made no changes to monetary policy, saying stimulus will be expanded if necessary.

The world’s third largest economy, Japan, has ruled out widely speculated ‘helicopter money’ as a solution to its deflation. The interview conducted on June 17 but published on July 21, prompted investors to increase their yen positions against its counterparts on Thursday. But quickly receded after the Bank of Japan governor Haruiko Kuroda reiterated his readiness to ease policy further if required.

We have very powerful policy framework, and I don’t think there’s any significant limitation of further easing of monetary conditions in Japan, if necessary, said Kuroda.

In New Zealand, inflation failed to beat 0.5 percent expected by economists in the second quarter of the year, forcing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to join the list of central banks considering monetary action to lift inflation. The consumer price index which measures inflation came out 0.4 percent, daunting RBNZ progress so far. This week, GBPUSD, USDCHF, EURUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD top the list for me.

GBPUSD

Presently, the UK economic outlook is weak, and with various business gauges falling to levels not seen since the financial crisis, investors will seek safe haven assets in the US or elsewhere.

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The pound has failed to break 1.3490 resistance level after five attempts, and has since been trading largely between 1.3103 and 1.3490 price levels. Currently, the pound is not attractive enough to cause major damage against the US dollar. Hence, a sustained break below 1.3103 support level will confirm the continuation of downward trend started on June 24 to give about 294 pips with 1.2809 as the target.

USDCHF

The US dollar is currently stronger than Swiss Franc, and as such has gained 452 pips since May 3. Breaking 0.9843 key resistance level established above wedge pattern started on January 29 this year.

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I am bullish on USDCHF with 1.0000 (parity) as the first target, a sustained break should open up another 93 pips to 1.0093 resistance level.

Last Week Recap

EURUSD dropped 93 pips last week, but far from our target of 1.0714. This week I remain bearish on this pair provided price remains below 1.1090 resistance level.

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Last week, the AUDUSD gave us 117 pips to close at 0.7464 price level, after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced it will keep stimulus expansion options open on Tuesday.

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This week, I remain bearish on AUDUSD with 0.7379 as the first target, a sustained break should open up 0.7143 as highlighted last week.

Last week, USDCAD hit our target at 1.3142, giving us is 259 pips. This week, USDCAD is perhaps my favourite pair for two reasons, one, U.S. crude supply is at its highest seasonal levels in at least two decades. Two, loonie is crude oil backed currency. This week, I remain bullish on USDCAD with 1.3387 as the target as long as price remain above our last week target of 1.3142.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.