A potential U.K. exit from the European Union next week may have far-reaching implications for the $5.3 trillion-a-day currency market. Add to that list Japan’s currency strengthening to levels that spark speculation about central bank intervention to counter the move.
The yen surged to the strongest in almost two years against the dollar this week as investors sought refuge before the June 23 British referendum. The rally prompted Finance Minister Taro Aso to express concern and call for coordination with foreign counterparts to address what he described as disorderly exchange-rate moves.
“They would be able to intervene,” Alan Ruskin, New York-based head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s fourth-largest currency trader, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “If the yen was moving through 100 against the dollar and there were some Brexit-related events, then I could certainly see the Bank of Japan saying ‘Look here guys, we’re subject to all these external forces.’”
The Bank of Japan refrained this week from adding to stimulus, even as policy makers seek to bolster economic growth, which would benefit from a weaker yen making exports more competitive. Japan’s currency has rallied more than 15 percent against the dollar this year on haven demand from global economic turmoil, with hedge-fund positioning reaching the most bullish in six years.
Japan’s currency rose 2.6 percent this week, reaching 103.55 per dollar, the strongest level since August 2014. It added 2.4 percent to 117.47 per euro.
The premium for one-month options to buy the yen versus the greenback, over the cost of contracts to sell, widened to about 3 percentage points on June 16, the most since 2010, according prices compiled by Bloomberg. The gap was at 2.8 on Friday.
Analysts at Standard Bank Group Ltd., Prudential Financial Inc., Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. and Toronto-Dominion Bank said they are on watch for yen intervention.
“The most likely catalyst for that would be a Brexit outcome, in my view, which would lead potentially to very high volatility in foreign-exchange markets,” said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
Aso, who is also deputy prime minister, said Friday that he wants to take “firm action” in line with Group-of-Seven and G-20 agreements on avoiding unstable currency markets.
Yet there’s no indication from the G-7 that they’re open to joint intervention. The last time Japan sold yen to restrain gains was in 2011, in a multilateral intervention following the devastating earthquake and tsunami.
Naira Plunges to N621 at Black Market
The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday.
The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday. The Naira exchanged at N621 to a United States Dollar amid persistent foreign exchange scarcity.
At the Investors and Exporters’ forex window, the local currency dropped to N425.75 against the United States Dollar after opening the day at N422.25/US$1 on Monday. Forex traders in that segment of the forex market transacted $47.56 million in value and volume, Investors King reports.
However, Naira improved slightly against the U.S Dollar at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forex section. Naira exchange rate to dollar improved marginally from N415.86/US$ to N415.8.
Against the Pounds Sterling, the Nigerian Naira declined in value to N505.6544 from N500.6539. Similarly, against the European common currency, the local currency dipped slightly in value from N434.0331 to N434.7605.
Oil prices dropped by $6 on Tuesday as concerns over the global recession containing demand outweighed supply concerns.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, declined by $6.65 to $106.85 a barrel while the U.S. West Texas Crude Oil lost $5.65 to $102.78 a barrel.
“Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management wrote.
Crude oil remains an important commodity for the Nigerian economy given its nature as a mono-product economy. Africa’s largest economy relies on crude oil revenue to service its economy and sustain its currency value against its global counterparts.
However, the inability to prop up crude oil production despite the increase in oil prices continued to hurt Nigeria’s foreign reserves and the availability of dollars in the economy. Hence, the Nigerian Naira is presently trading at a record low of N621 to a United States Dollar.
Cryptocurrency Exchange Rates
Global economic uncertainty ahead of the projected recession continues to dictate the performance of the cryptocurrency space in recent weeks.
Bitcoin extended its decline by 2.37% in the last 24 hours to $19,387.33 per coin. ETH, a token of the Ethereum protocol, lost 3.09% of its value to $1,079 a coin.
Meanwhile, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, has suspended its cryptocurrency project called Libra. Celsius, a cryptocurrency lender, has paused withdrawals and announced plans to cut 150 jobs.
Cryptocurrency space market value dropped from over $2.5 trillion at its peak to about $900 million presently. The huge decline forced several players to cut losses and halt capital inflow into the cryptocurrency space.
Dollar to Naira Today Wednesday, 29 June 2022
The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30.
The dollar to naira exchange rate today Wednesday, 29 June 2022 remained largely unchanged at the Investors and Exporters forex window and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s section of foreign exchange.
The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30. Forex traders transacted 206.65 million dollars at the official Investors and Exporters window on Tuesday.
In the CBN forex section, U.S. Dollar was sold at N415.6 by the apex bank to authorised dealers, slightly better than N415.64 it exchanged on Monday.
Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira appreciated from N509.824 to N508.53. However, against the Euro common currency, the value of the Naira dropped from N433.05 on Monday to N439.5 on Tuesday.
Dollar to Naira Black Market Exchange Rate
Forex scarcity continued to drag on the Naira value in the unregulated foreign exchange market popularly known as the black market.
On Wednesday, the Naira was exchanged at N614 for a United States Dollar on the black market. Representing another decline of N7 from N607 it was sold two weeks ago.
According to traders in that section of forex, rising demand amid a chronic scarcity is responsible for the wide foreign exchange rate of the local currency and could worsen if developed economies plunge into recession as widely projected.
Inflow into emerging economies like Nigeria will drop, hence impeding the apex bank’s ability to service the economy.
Crude oil extended its gains for four consecutive days on Wednesday after it became obvious that OPEC and its allies will not be able to meet their targets as projected.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, appreciated to $120 a barrel on Wednesday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose from $99.33 per barrel a week ago to $112.37 per barrel.
According to Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA, said “A surprise drop by US API Crude Inventories by 3.8 million barrels helped the bullish momentum, with markets ignoring the rise in refined product stocks. Disruptions to Libyan and Ecuadorian production were supportive, but the Macron’s remarks yesterday around Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s limited production capacity seems to have been the main driver.”
Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate, June 21, 2022
The Naira was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.
The Nigerian Naira remained largely flat against its global counterparts at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) section of foreign exchange on Tuesday.
The local currency was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.
The Euro common currency was the exception as the Naira declined by N1.308 from N437.4937 on Monday to N438.8017 Tuesday.
CBN Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Buying and Selling Rates
It is important to note that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rates are the rates the apex bank sells and buys from Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).
How Much is a Dollar to Naira in Black Market Today?
However, in the unregulated black market. The Naira remained weak against the United States Dollar and other global currencies. In Lagos and Abuja, the Nigerian Naira was exchanged at N610 to a United States Dollar, while at Ibadan it was sold at N605.
Operators are buying at N580 per US$1.
|Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN)||Black Market Exchange Rate Today|
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, traded at $109 per barrel on Tuesday as the expected surge in summer demand outweighs supply concerns. However, a global recession could force prices at some point this year.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA, in a note to Investors King said “Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing.”
The unregulated cryptocurrency space remained largely in the red. However, Bitcoin, the world’s most dominant digital asset, pared losses to $21,258.31, representing an increase of 4.66%.
ETH, the token of the Ethereum protocol, appreciated by 3.80% to $1,158.30 a coin. Similarly, BNB inched higher by 3.52% to $224.16 a coin.
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