Connect with us

Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook June 6 -10

Published

on

Outlook

Forex Weekly Outlook June 6 -10

The US economy failed again in May to create enough new jobs to support consumer spending after falling short in April. Although, manufacturing expanded moderately 51.3, but wasn’t enough to curtail the slump in the non-manufacturing sector from 55.7 to 51.3.

Also, unemployment rate improve from the previous 5 percent to 4.7 percent, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent. With the economy adding just 38,000 workers to payrolls in May, it is right to say June rate hike is now officially out of the picture, even if we were to add 35,000 Verizon Communications Inc. workers on strike. It will still be below 159,000 forecast by economists prior to the release.

Like I said last week, the more investors price in the possibility of unchanged rate, the more the dollar will lose it’s gains like we saw on Friday after job report. This week, volatility is expected across the board as investors try to decipher possible market direction amid uncertainties surrounding the EU referendum in the UK. Fed Chair Yellen Janet is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Philadelphia on Monday.

Brexit, UK

The UK economy have been saddled with the referendum vote due in June, but not only that, certain sectors of the economy are yet to pick up, especially the manufacturing sector where orders have dropped. In April, inflation fell to 0.3 percent for the first time since September, moving farther away from BOE 2 percent target. In fact, key officials of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee were reported saying the economy will require an additional stimulus even if the referendum vote is positive.

Last week, the pound fell against all its counterparts after polls showed that number of people in support of Britain exit from the European Union has risen more than the number of people against it. Even after May economic data shows service sector growth is picking up, this sort of volatility is expected this week as we await June 23 referendum vote. Sellers and Buyers should beware.

Australia

The Australian economy is important because of the potential it holds, if well understood. Aussie dollar lost more than 70 percent of its early year gains after inflation unexpectedly contracted -0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. Prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates by 25 basis points, but surprising RBA rebuke any further rates cut while insisting the economy is on track as record low interest rates are aiding economic revival.

Here are two take away, Australian economy grew 1.1 percent in the first quarter, more than 0.7 percent recorded in the final quarter of 2015. This couple with central bank data that showed business lending rose at the fastest pace in seven years and the unemployment rate of 2 1/2 year low, are key indicators that consumer spending would pick-up soon and further strengthens the Aussie dollar, especially now that the US June rate hike is out of the picture. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to announce cash rate decision on Tuesday.

New Zealand

The Kiwi economy has shown remarkable recovery since retail sales plunged in the first quarter of the year. The economy was boosted by a 2.6 percent surge in Global Dairy Trade price Index in May and subsequently reflects in the 292 million trade surplus. With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising its inflation expectation for  the second quarter and business confidence increasing to 11 percent in May amid  growing construction and tourism sector. It is normal for the Kiwi dollar to respond likewise.

Japan

The US job report just compounded Bank of Japan woes, one, Japan is looking for ways to intervene in its currency gains and has repeatedly said the yen move is one sided and “considered undesirable“. Two, Japan can’t intervene because of the G7 agreement that prohibit nations from using currency devaluation as a tool to stimulate growths (exports), but with investors fleeing the dollar, Euro and Pound, the flashlight is once again on the yen this week and could open up 105.21 price level against the dollar, a sustained  break should give us 102.21.

China bank holiday on Thursday and Friday. Click here to see our favourite pairs this week.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Forex

CBN Goes After Abokifx, Freezes Bank Accounts for Publishing Black Market Rates

Published

on

Abokifx - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks to freeze all the bank accounts associated with AbokiFX and its owner, Oniwinde Olusegun Adedotun, for publishing foreign exchange rates other than the rates determined by the CBN.

The apex bank had warned publishers to desist from publishing forex rates determined by the unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market, where speculators and hoarders largely manipulate the nation’s foreign exchange rates as seen in recent weeks.

In an email to publishers by the NGN Project, presumably acting on behalf of the CBN, the organisation had quoted section 11 sub-section 1(c) and 2 (a,b) of the National Economic Intelligence Committee Act of 2004 that stated “it shall be an offence for any person, association of individuals or body corporate (whether public or private) to publish or cause to be published exchange and interest rates other than the rates determined by the Bank from time to time.”

The Act stipulated N100,000 fine or imprisonment for a term of two years or both for individual and N500,000 fine and suspension or revocation of certificate of registration or cerificate of incorporation for association or individuals or corporate body.

This was after the central bank halted the sale of forex to bureau de change operators after accussing them of aiding the activities of criminals at the unregulated black market and been a channel for illicit financial flow. The move, which resulted in chronic forex scarcity and all time high foreign exchange rate, has forced the apex bank to go after publishers in effort to discourage people from patronising the black market and to force Nigerians to reject the unreason exchange rate of N567 to a United States Dollar and approach their banks for N412 to N415 per US Dollars.

Despite covid-19 challenges and limited forex generation, the apex bank has continued to support the Nigerian Naira and go after forex manipulators.

The NGN Project had described AbokiFX.com and its owner has criminals ‘committing crimes against the Nigerian state’. See the email CBN sent to publishers below.

 

Continue Reading

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, September 16, 2021

Published

on

Naira - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Thursday as it plunged to N565 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N765 and N650 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N555, N765 and N645 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 557/565** 758/765** 640/650** 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

 

Continue Reading

Naira

Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today, Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Published

on

Naira Notes - Investors King

Naira extended its decline on Tuesday as it hits N557 against the United States Dollar at the parallel market, popularly called the black market.

The local currency exchanged at N557 to a United States Dollar at the black market, representing an all-time record low against the greenback. Against the British Pound and the Euro common currency, the Naira slid to N760 and N645, respectively.

Africa’s largest economy is enmeshed in low forex liquidity caused by poor economic structure that over the years has limited and weakened the nation’s foreign revenue generation. This weak foreign revenue generation has impeded Nigeria, a largely import dependent economy, from effectively servicing her economy with necessary forex for economic activities.

The inability to service the economy with enough forex coupled with the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria to halt the sale of forex to Buruea De Change Operators have compounded Nigeria’s forex situation and further disrupted the Naira’s outlook.

Still, the apex bank continues to post its inaccessible official rates as shown in the table below. Despite insisting that exchange rates are stipulated Central Bank of Nigeria’s rates, many Nigerians and businesses operating in the country find it hard or impossible to access forex at the central bank’s rates.

The Central Bank of Nigeria sells U.S Dollar at N410.51, while the British Pound and Euro are sold at N568.1869 and N483.6629, respectively.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

Continue Reading




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending