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Dollar Heads For Steepest Three-Week Slide

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External Reserves

The dollar headed for its steepest three-week slide in more than four years as an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve spurred analysts and investors to reassess forecasts for the greenback.

A Bloomberg index tracking the U.S. currency against 10 major peers climbed from an eight-month low reached Friday, two days after Fed officials unexpectedly cut projections for interest-rate increases to two this year from the four they estimated in December. Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Morgan Stanley, two of the world’s top 10 currency forecasters, are highlighting the risk of more dollar weakness.

“The fact that they didn’t raise rates and wound back expectations for future increases in 2016 has obviously hurt the U.S. dollar,” said Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital Pty in Sydney. “That can continue in the very near term.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,185.52 as of 6:28 a.m. in New York, having fallen earlier to 1,180.83, the lowest since June 30. It has dropped 3.7 percent since Feb. 26, poised for the biggest three-week slump since October 2011. The greenback has depreciated at least 0.4 percent against all of its Group-of-10 peers since March 11.

Fed’s Outlook

The Fed meeting prompted investors to question whether the dollar’s rally has run out of steam. Bloomberg’s gauge had climbed 37 percent between its 2011 low and the closing peak reached on Jan. 22 of this year, as the promise of superior economic growth and rising interest rates contrasted with sluggish economic activities elsewhere.

“In terms of the relative difference in interest rates, the rally is over,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” with Manus Cranny and Anna Edwards. “The Fed has said we’re not going to be pushing this game like we were expected too.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its year-end forecast for dollar-yen to 103 from 110 the same day. The median estimate is 120 among more than 60 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The dollar was little changed at 111.38 yen Friday, on track for a 2.2 percent slide this week. It reached 110.67 on Thursday, the lowest since October 2014. The greenback gained 0.4 percent Friday to $1.1268 per euro, paring its weekly decline to 1 percent.

‘More Dovish’

“The Fed has become much more dovish — the market realizing maybe the Fed being a little bit more behind the curve,” Dominic Schnider, the head of commodities and Asia-Pacific foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit in Hong Kong, said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s simply not good for the dollar, and so we have this generic dollar weakness right now which will not disappear in the very short term.”

While Morgan Stanley and Macquarie agree on the prospects for near-term weakness, they remain dollar bulls.

The greenback will decline over a one-to-three month horizon, after which it will begin climbing again on a resumption of Fed tightening amid looser policy elsewhere, Macquarie strategists Nizam Idris, Gareth Berry and Teresa Lam wrote in a report Thursday.

“The falling USD has the characteristics of a pain trade that seems to have further to run,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Hans Redeker, the global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note the same day . However, “for the USD to experience a long-term trend change requires more than a dovish Fed.”

Bloomberg

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Banking Sector

FBN Holdings To Invest N103.1bn In Corporate, Retail Businesses

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FBN Holdings

As part of means of actualizing its expectation of raising N150 billion from its existing shareholders by way of rights issue, the management of FBN Holdings said it has budgeted an estimated N103.1 billion for its corporate business and retail business lending segments of the market.

The Holdings recently held the signing ceremony to begin the rights issue offering of 5,982,548,799 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N25.00 per share to its existing shareholder on the basis of one new ordinary share for every six ordinary shares held as of October 18, 2024.

Extracts from the offer raising prospectus of the financial institution revealed that lending to the corporate business segment gets N77.34 billion, while lending to the retail business segment gets a budget of N25.78 billion.

This covers 68.95 per cent of the N150 billion proposed rights issue the management seeks to raise from existing shareholders.

Out of the N150 billion, a total of N29.46 billion was budgeted to support international business expansion and N14.73 billion for investment in automation and digital banking.

According to the financial institution, seamless and convenient banking experience for its customers would be guaranteed through its significant investment in automation and digital banking.

Through its mobile banking app, FirstMobile, and its internet banking platform, FirstOnline, the management of FBN Holdings said it has effectively acquired a broad cross-section of the target demography, with a clear proposition of owning bank accounts and utilising various financial services from the comfort of their locations.

It added that the bank plans to upgrade the FirstMobile and FirstOnline apps with additional features while driving customer adoption of the platforms, noting that the development is in line with First Bank’s commitment to providing customers with the best-in-class electronic banking experience.

The offer, however, is part of the company’s plan to recapitalise its commercial banking subsidiary, First Bank of Nigeria Limited,  with a view to increasing the bank’s capacity for business development and growth.

Chairman, FBN Holdings, Olufemi Otedola in a statement from the document urged shareholders to support the Rights issue by accepting their rights, stating that the company will be well positioned to achieve its strategic objectives and to deliver improved returns to all stakeholders.

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Finance

Currency Outside Banks Increases By 66.2% As Nigerians Shun Formal Banking Channels

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New Naira notes

A recent data has revealed that currency outside banks increased by 66.2 percent in September 2024.

To this end, money outside traditional banking channels rose to N4.02 trillion compared to N2.42 trillion reported in September 2023.

This represents an increase of N1.60 trillion in just one year.

This was revealed in the Money and Credit Statistics data of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to the data, on a month-on-month basis, currency outside banks grew by 3.8 percent in September 2024 from August’s figure of N3.87 trillion, translating to an increase of N147.9 billion.

The trend suggests a growing inclination among the public to retain cash outside formal banking channels, a shift that could impact banks’ liquidity and shape monetary policy dynamics.

The CBN data further shows that a considerable proportion of Nigeria’s currency is held outside the banking system.

In September 2024, approximately 93.1 percent of currency in circulation was outside banks, a rise from 87.5 percent recorded in September 2023.

This shift may reflect limited trust in banking services, inflationary pressures, or a structural dependence on cash in Nigeria’s largely informal economy.

Such a high percentage of currency outside banks poses potential challenges for channelling funds into productive investments, potentially hindering economic growth.

The CBN report also highlights a parallel rise in overall currency in circulation, which encompasses both bank-held and outside cash.

In September 2024, currency in circulation rose beyond 56.1 percent year-on-year to reach N4.31trn, up from N2.76trn in September 2023, reflecting an increase of N1.55trn.

This indicates that the volume of currency retained outside the banking sector outpaced the total released for circulation within the past year.

Compared to August 2024, currency in circulation rose by 4.0 percent month-on-month, adding N166.2bn from the previous figure of N4.14trn.

Earlier in September, the CBN announced plans to sanction banks that fail to dispense cash through their automated teller machines, as part of efforts to improve cash availability in circulation.

The CBN also revealed plans to release an additional N1.4 trillion into circulation over the next three months to ease cash flow within the banking system.

This strategy aims to ensure that ATMs and bank branches have sufficient cash, addressing ongoing challenges faced by customers over cash shortages.

In related developments, it was observed that Nigeria’s money supply grew significantly by 62.8 percent year-on-year in September 2024, despite the Monetary Policy Committee’s tightening stance intended to manage excess liquidity to control inflation.

According to CBN data, M3 reached N108.95 trillion in September 2024, up from N66.94 trillion in the same period last year.

On a month-on-month basis, money supply rose by 1.6 percent, increasing from N107.19trn in August 2024.

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Banking Sector

Zenith Bank Achieves Triple-Digit Growth, Revenue Surges 118% to N2.9 Trillion

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Zenith Bank - Investors King

Zenith Bank Plc has announced its unaudited results for the third quarter ended 30 September 2024, recording a remarkable triple-digit growth of 118% from N1.33 trillion reported in Q3 2023 to N2.9 trillion in Q3 2024.

This performance underscores the Group’s resilience and market leadership in spite of the challenging macroeconomic environment.

According to the Bank’s unaudited third quarter financial results presented to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the triple-digit growth in the topline also led to an increase in the bottom line, as the Group recorded a 99% Year on Year (YoY) increase in profit before tax, growing from N505 billion in Q3 2023 to N1.0 trillion in Q3 2024.  Profit after tax equally grew by 91% from N434.2 billion to N827 billion in the same period.

The growth in the topline was driven by the expansion of both interest income and non-interest income. Interest income saw a notable 190% rise to N1.95 trillion, attributed to the high-yield environment.

Non-interest income rose by 41% to N856 billion, bolstered by substantial growth in fees and commissions, which highlights the strength of Zenith Bank’s retail growth and the robust performance of its digital channels during the reporting period.

The robust increase in profitability reflects the Bank’s focus on operational efficiency and strong risk management practices. Earnings per share (EPS) nearly doubled, rising to N26.34 from N13.82 in Q3 2023, underscoring Zenith Bank’s strong value creation for shareholders.

The Bank’s balance sheet grew significantly, with total assets growing by 49% to N30.4 trillion, largely supported by customer deposits, which rose by 42% to N21.6 trillion.

This growth in deposits was broad-based across corporate and retail segments, highlighting the Bank’s deepening reach and customer loyalty.

Gross loans increased by 46% to N10.3 trillion, underscoring the commitment to supporting strategic sectors in the economy.

Capital adequacy ratio remained strong, improving to 21.9%, well above regulatory requirements. The return on average equity (ROAE) stood at 37.8%, up from 35.1%, while return on average assets (ROAA) also improved to 4.3% as Zenith Bank maximized its asset base.

Cost of funds increased to 4.3%, reflecting the broader market trend of rising interest rates, while the cost of risk was maintained at 7.3%, underscoring the Bank’s proactive approach in provisioning for credit risk.

The Bank’s cost-to-income ratio rose to 39.5%, reflecting the impact of strategic investments in technology and capacity building aimed at supporting long-term growth, even as it continues to strive for greater operational efficiency.

Zenith Bank’s asset quality remains a cornerstone of its strength, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 4.5%, within regulatory limits. A high coverage ratio of 198.4% underscores the Bank’s disciplined approach to risk management, positioning it for resilience in the face of market volatility while supporting stable loan growth.

Zenith Bank remains steadfast in its commitment to sustainable growth and value creation. The Bank launched a capital raise program on August 1, 2024, consisting of a combined Rights Issue and Public Offer.

This capital raise was driven by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s recapitalization directive for commercial banks issued in March 2024. While the Bank awaits final capital verification approvals from authorities, the fundraising exercise was successful, reflecting strong confidence in Zenith Bank’s brand.

The additional capital will enhance the Bank’s ability to expand its product offerings, deepen its penetration in strategic sectors, boost lending to the real sector and pursue its African and global expansion plan.

In furtherance of this, the Bank in September 2024 received regulatory approval for the establishment of a Zenith Bank branch in Paris, France, which is fully operational and will enhance the Bank’s product offerings in international markets.

With a strengthened capital base, Zenith Bank is well-positioned to navigate the evolving economic landscape, while putting best-practice sustainability standards at the heart of its business.

The Bank will also continue to prioritize opportunities that enhance stakeholder value and a strong compliance and corporate governance culture, which will reinforce the its leadership position within Nigeria’s financial sector and drive long-term growth.

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