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U.S. Stocks Retreat as Metals Prices Gain, Dollar Drop

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U.S. stocks fell, as commodities from copper to gold advanced amid a slide in the dollar that was fueled by speculation global growth may not be strong enough to warrant further central-bank tightening. Crude erased an advance to fall back below $32 a barrel.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated after rising 0.8 percent. Disappointing results at retailers dragged consumer shares lower. Crude slid, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its biggest two-day loss since 2009. Emerging-market equities rallied almost 3 percent. The pound fell after Ian McCafferty, the Bank of England’s only policy dissenter over the past six months, dropped his call for higher interest rates.

The dollar’s retreat was sparked by data showing the U.S. services sector grew at the slowest pace in nearly two years, underscoring the vulnerability of the American economy to unsteadiness abroad. The report tipped the fixed-income market’s balance closer toward zero rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, amid prospects central banks from Asia to Europe will act to quell the turmoil that’s roiled markets in 2016. The greenback’s drop helped prop up the price of gold and industrial metals.

“The lower the dollar, the better it is for commodities, so we are seeing a little bounce back,” Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Capital Markets in New York said by phone. “The number of Fed rate raises has continued to be reduced by the market place, probably a little bit too much. But yes the Fed will cut back, we will not do four interest rates raises this year.”

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,907 at 2:51 p.m. in New York. The gauge advanced yesterday for the first time this month, erasing a drop of more than 1 percent as oil’s surge topped 7 percent. The benchmark equity gauge is down more than 6 percent so far in 2016.

Materials shares advanced 2.2 percent, as Freeport McMoRan Inc. surged with copper. Energy producers fell 0.2 percent after earlier gaining. Shares in consumer-discretionary stocks fell. Kohl’s Corp. sank 19 percent after slow sales squeezed profits. Ralph Lauren Corp. plunged after the company cut its annual forecast.

Economic data did little to alter perceptions on the strength of the world’s largest economy. Initial jobless claims last week rose more than expected, Labor Department data showed, while factory orders declined at a faster pace in December than the previous month.

“The question is what can we hang our hat on right now? It’s not earnings, it’s not what central banks are able to do, and it’s certainly not what we’re seeing with economic data,” Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in New York, said by phone. “Central banks continue to take their targets down on growth and inflation and part of today’s frustration came with the whippiness of crude.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent, after rising as much as 1.1 percent. Daimler AG led automakers to among the biggest declines out of the 19 industry groups. Gauges of energy shares and commodity producers jumped more than 3.3 percent, for the best performances.

Credit Suisse Group AG slumped 11 percent to its lowest price since August 1992 after posting a quarterly loss as it wrote off goodwill and set aside provisions for litigation, while its two investment-banking divisions slumped.

Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.6 percent, with more than five stocks advancing for every one that declined. Material and energy producers led gains among 10 industry groups, climbing almost 5 percent.

Russia’s Micex Index jumped 2.4 percent, the most in a week, and shares in Dubai rallied 2.8 percent. Equity benchmarks in South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Africa rose at least 0.8 percent.

Emerging-market currencies headed for a two-day advance. Malaysia’s ringgit and South Korea’s won strengthened at least 1.4 percent against the dollar, sending a gauge of developing-nation exchange rates toward a one-month high. Turkey’s lira erased this year’s losses.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, retreated 0.6 percent after sliding as much as 1.9 percent last session.

The greenback fell against all of its 16 major peers except Mexico’s peso and the British pound, which was weighed down by the Bank of England ’s unanimous vote to keep interest rates unchanged. Officials signaled borrowing costs will stay low as they cut their growth and inflation forecasts.

The dollar slipped 1 percent to 116.67 yen, after erasing all its gains since the BOJ’s surprise Jan. 29 move. The greenback weakened 1 percent to $1.1214 per euro, and has now fallen every day this week.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures returns on raw materials, fell 0.2 percent after earlier rallying as much as 1.2 percent. The gauge advanced 1.9 percent yesterday.

Oil sank after rallying earlier. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9 percent to $31.67 a barrel in New York, after jumping as much as 4.1 percent. Some OPEC member states and non-members have been talking about an extraordinary meeting on production.

Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest oil company, deepened investment cuts and offered to pay dividends in stock. Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it depleted its oil and gas reserves much faster than it replenished them with new resources in 2015, its worst performance since 12 years ago.

Industrial metals benefited from a drop in the U.S. currency that makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors. Aluminum for delivery in three months climbed to the highest this year on the LME, and lead advanced for the eighth day in a row, the longest run since June 2014.

Spot gold climbed for a fifth day, the longest run of gains in five months, as expectations of continued low U.S. interest rates seeped through the market.

Bonds

The Treasury 10-year note yield slipped two basis points to 1.87 percent. The yield dropped to 1.79 percent Wednesday, the lowest level since February 2015. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co. say bonds are poised to fall and traders aren’t prepared for how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Spanish and Italian government bonds led declines across the euro region as investors questioned the level of additional stimulus they can expect from the European Central Bank.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Gold

Gold Steadies After Initial Gains on Reports of Israel’s Strikes in Iran

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Gold, often viewed as a haven during times of geopolitical uncertainty, exhibited a characteristic surge in response to reports of Israel’s alleged strikes in Iran, only to stabilize later as tensions simmered.

The yellow metal’s initial rally came on the heels of escalating tensions in the Middle East, with concerns mounting over a potential wider conflict.

Spot gold soared as much as 1.6% in early trading as news circulated regarding Israel’s purported strikes on targets in Iran.

This surge, reaching a high of $2,400 a ton, reflected the nervousness pervading global markets amidst the saber-rattling between the two nations.

However, as the day progressed, media reports from both countries appeared to downplay the impact and severity of the alleged strikes, contributing to a moderation in gold’s gains.

Analysts noted that while the initial spike was fueled by fears of heightened conflict, subsequent assessments suggesting a less severe outcome helped calm investor nerves, leading to a stabilization in gold prices.

Traders had been bracing for a potential Israeli response following Iran’s missile and drone attack over the weekend, raising concerns about a retaliatory spiral between the two adversaries.

Reports of an explosion in Iran’s central city of Isfahan further added to the atmosphere of uncertainty, prompting flight suspensions and exacerbating market jitters.

In addition to geopolitical tensions, gold’s rally in recent months has been underpinned by other factors, including expectations of US interest rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, and robust consumer demand, particularly in China.

Despite the initial surge followed by stabilization, gold remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East and broader geopolitical dynamics.

Investors continue to monitor the situation closely for any signs of escalation or de-escalation, recognizing gold’s role as a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty.

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Commodities

Global Cocoa Prices Surge to Record Levels, Processing Remains Steady

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Cocoa futures in New York have reached a historic pinnacle with the most-active contract hitting an all-time high of $11,578 a metric ton in early trading on Friday.

This surge comes amidst a backdrop of challenges in the cocoa industry, including supply chain disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and rising production costs.

Despite these hurdles, the pace of processing in chocolate factories has remained constant, providing a glimmer of hope for chocolate lovers worldwide.

Data released after market close on Thursday revealed that cocoa processing, known as “grinds,” was up in North America during the first quarter, appreciating by 4% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, processing in Europe only saw a modest decline of about 2%, and Asia experienced a slight decrease.

These processing figures are particularly noteworthy given the current landscape of cocoa prices. Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa futures have more than doubled, reflecting the immense pressure on the cocoa market.

Yet, despite these soaring prices, chocolate manufacturers have managed to maintain their production levels, indicating resilience in the face of adversity.

The surge in cocoa prices can be attributed to a variety of factors, including supply shortages caused by adverse weather conditions in key cocoa-producing regions such as West Africa.

Also, rising demand for chocolate products, particularly premium and artisanal varieties, has contributed to the upward pressure on prices.

While the spike in cocoa prices presents challenges for chocolate manufacturers and consumers alike, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the cocoa market.

Despite the record-breaking prices, the steady pace of cocoa processing suggests that chocolate lovers can still expect to indulge in their favorite treats, albeit at a higher cost.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Refinery Leverages Cheaper US Oil Imports to Boost Production

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Crude Oil

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is capitalizing on the availability of cheaper oil imports from the United States.

Recent reports indicate that the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day has begun leveraging US-grade oil to power its operations in Nigeria.

According to insights from industry analysts, the refinery has commenced shipping various products, including jet fuel, gasoil, and naphtha, as it gradually ramps up its production capacity.

The utilization of US oil imports, particularly the WTI Midland grade, has provided Dangote Refinery with a cost-effective solution for its feedstock requirements.

Experts anticipate that the refinery’s gasoline-focused units, expected to come online in the summer months will further bolster its influence in the Atlantic Basin gasoline markets.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Dangote’s entry into the gasoline market is poised to reshape the West African gasoline supply dynamics.

Despite operating at approximately half its nameplate capacity, Dangote Refinery’s impact on regional fuel markets is already being felt. The refinery’s recent announcement of a reduction in diesel prices from N1,200/litre to N1,000/litre has generated excitement within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This move is expected to positively affect various sectors of the economy and contribute to reducing the country’s high inflation rate.

Furthermore, the refinery’s utilization of US oil imports shows its commitment to exploring cost-effective solutions while striving to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand. As the refinery continues to optimize its production processes, it is poised to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s energy landscape and contribute to the country’s quest for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.

Moreover, the Nigerian government’s recent directive to compel oil producers to prioritize domestic refineries for crude supply aligns with Dangote Refinery’s objectives of reducing reliance on imported refined products.

With the flexibility to purchase crude using either the local currency or the US dollar, the refinery is well-positioned to capitalize on these policy reforms and further enhance its operational efficiency.

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