U.S. stocks fell, as commodities from copper to gold advanced amid a slide in the dollar that was fueled by speculation global growth may not be strong enough to warrant further central-bank tightening. Crude erased an advance to fall back below $32 a barrel.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated after rising 0.8 percent. Disappointing results at retailers dragged consumer shares lower. Crude slid, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its biggest two-day loss since 2009. Emerging-market equities rallied almost 3 percent. The pound fell after Ian McCafferty, the Bank of England’s only policy dissenter over the past six months, dropped his call for higher interest rates.
The dollar’s retreat was sparked by data showing the U.S. services sector grew at the slowest pace in nearly two years, underscoring the vulnerability of the American economy to unsteadiness abroad. The report tipped the fixed-income market’s balance closer toward zero rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, amid prospects central banks from Asia to Europe will act to quell the turmoil that’s roiled markets in 2016. The greenback’s drop helped prop up the price of gold and industrial metals.
“The lower the dollar, the better it is for commodities, so we are seeing a little bounce back,” Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Capital Markets in New York said by phone. “The number of Fed rate raises has continued to be reduced by the market place, probably a little bit too much. But yes the Fed will cut back, we will not do four interest rates raises this year.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,907 at 2:51 p.m. in New York. The gauge advanced yesterday for the first time this month, erasing a drop of more than 1 percent as oil’s surge topped 7 percent. The benchmark equity gauge is down more than 6 percent so far in 2016.
Materials shares advanced 2.2 percent, as Freeport McMoRan Inc. surged with copper. Energy producers fell 0.2 percent after earlier gaining. Shares in consumer-discretionary stocks fell. Kohl’s Corp. sank 19 percent after slow sales squeezed profits. Ralph Lauren Corp. plunged after the company cut its annual forecast.
Economic data did little to alter perceptions on the strength of the world’s largest economy. Initial jobless claims last week rose more than expected, Labor Department data showed, while factory orders declined at a faster pace in December than the previous month.
“The question is what can we hang our hat on right now? It’s not earnings, it’s not what central banks are able to do, and it’s certainly not what we’re seeing with economic data,” Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in New York, said by phone. “Central banks continue to take their targets down on growth and inflation and part of today’s frustration came with the whippiness of crude.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent, after rising as much as 1.1 percent. Daimler AG led automakers to among the biggest declines out of the 19 industry groups. Gauges of energy shares and commodity producers jumped more than 3.3 percent, for the best performances.
Credit Suisse Group AG slumped 11 percent to its lowest price since August 1992 after posting a quarterly loss as it wrote off goodwill and set aside provisions for litigation, while its two investment-banking divisions slumped.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.6 percent, with more than five stocks advancing for every one that declined. Material and energy producers led gains among 10 industry groups, climbing almost 5 percent.
Russia’s Micex Index jumped 2.4 percent, the most in a week, and shares in Dubai rallied 2.8 percent. Equity benchmarks in South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Africa rose at least 0.8 percent.
Emerging-market currencies headed for a two-day advance. Malaysia’s ringgit and South Korea’s won strengthened at least 1.4 percent against the dollar, sending a gauge of developing-nation exchange rates toward a one-month high. Turkey’s lira erased this year’s losses.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, retreated 0.6 percent after sliding as much as 1.9 percent last session.
The greenback fell against all of its 16 major peers except Mexico’s peso and the British pound, which was weighed down by the Bank of England ’s unanimous vote to keep interest rates unchanged. Officials signaled borrowing costs will stay low as they cut their growth and inflation forecasts.
The dollar slipped 1 percent to 116.67 yen, after erasing all its gains since the BOJ’s surprise Jan. 29 move. The greenback weakened 1 percent to $1.1214 per euro, and has now fallen every day this week.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures returns on raw materials, fell 0.2 percent after earlier rallying as much as 1.2 percent. The gauge advanced 1.9 percent yesterday.
Oil sank after rallying earlier. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9 percent to $31.67 a barrel in New York, after jumping as much as 4.1 percent. Some OPEC member states and non-members have been talking about an extraordinary meeting on production.
Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest oil company, deepened investment cuts and offered to pay dividends in stock. Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it depleted its oil and gas reserves much faster than it replenished them with new resources in 2015, its worst performance since 12 years ago.
Industrial metals benefited from a drop in the U.S. currency that makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors. Aluminum for delivery in three months climbed to the highest this year on the LME, and lead advanced for the eighth day in a row, the longest run since June 2014.
Spot gold climbed for a fifth day, the longest run of gains in five months, as expectations of continued low U.S. interest rates seeped through the market.
The Treasury 10-year note yield slipped two basis points to 1.87 percent. The yield dropped to 1.79 percent Wednesday, the lowest level since February 2015. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co. say bonds are poised to fall and traders aren’t prepared for how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
Spanish and Italian government bonds led declines across the euro region as investors questioned the level of additional stimulus they can expect from the European Central Bank.
Oil Posts 2% Gain for the Week Despite India Virus Surge
Oil prices steadied on Friday and were set for a weekly gain against the backdrop of optimism over a global economic recovery, though the COVID-19 crisis in India capped prices.
Brent crude futures settled 0.28% higher at $68.28 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 0.29% to $64.90 per barrel.
Both Brent and WTI are on track for second consecutive weekly gains as easing restrictions on movement in the United States and Europe, recovering factory operations and coronavirus vaccinations pave the way for a revival in fuel demand.
In China, data showed export growth accelerated unexpectedly in April while a private survey pointed to strong expansion in service sector activity.
However, crude imports by the world’s biggest buyer fell 0.2% in April from a year earlier to 40.36 million tonnes, or 9.82 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since December.
In the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, jobless claims have dropped, signalling the labour market recovery has entered a new phase as the economy recovers.
The recovery in oil demand, however, has been uneven as surging COVID-19 cases in India reduce fuel consumption in the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer.
“Brent came within a whisker of breaking past $70 a barrel this week but failed at the final hurdle as demand uncertainty dragged on prices,” said Stephen Brennock at oil brokerage PVM.
The resurgence of COVID-19 in countries such as India, Japan and Thailand is hindering gasoline demand recovery, energy consultancy FGE said in a client note, though some of the lost demand has been offset by countries such as China, where recent Labour Day holiday travel surpassed 2019 levels.
“Gasoline demand in the U.S. and parts of Europe is faring relatively well,” FGE said.
“Further out, we could see demand pick up as lockdowns are eased and pent-up demand is released during the summer driving season.”
Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange to Commence Gold Trading
With the admission of Dukia Gold’s diversified financial instruments backed by gold as the underlying asset, Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange is set to commence gold trading.
According to Dukia Gold, the instruments will be in form of exchange-traded notes, commercial papers and other gold-backed securities, adding that it will enable the company to deepen the commodities market in Nigeria, increase capacity, generate foreign exchange for the Nigerian government to better diversify foreign reserves and create jobs across the metal production value chain.
Tunde Fagbemi, the Chairman, Dukia Gold, disclosed this while addressing journalists at Pre-Listing Media Interactive Session in Lagos on Thursday.
He said, “We are proud to be the first gold company whose products would be listed on the Lagos Futures and Commodities Exchange. The listing shall enable us facilitate our infrastructure development, expand capacity and create fungible products.
“This has potential to shore up Nigeria’s foreign reserve and create an alternative window for preservation of pension funds. A gold-backed security is a hedge against inflation and convenient preservation of capital.”
“As a global player, we comply with the practices and procedures of London Bullion Market Association and many other international bodies. Our refinery will also have multiplier effects on the development of rural areas anywhere it is located,” he added.
Mr Olusegun Akanji, the Divisional Head, Strategy and Business Solutions, Heritage Bank, said the lender had created a buying centre for verification of quality and quantity of gold and reference price to ensure price discovery in line with the global standard.
Oil Nears $70 as Easing Western Lockdowns Boost Summer Demand Outlook
Oil prices rose for a third day on Wednesday as easing of lockdowns in the United States and parts of Europe heralded a boost in fuel demand in summer season and offset concerns about the rise of COVID-19 infections in India and Japan.
Brent crude rose 93 cents, or 1.4%, to $69.81 a barrel at 1008 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 85 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.54 a barrel.
Both contracts hit the highest level since mid-March in intra-day trade.
“A return to $70 oil is edging closer to becoming reality,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
“The jump in oil prices came amid expectations of strong demand as western economies reopen. Indeed, anticipation of a pick-up in fuel and energy usage in the United States and Europe over the summer months is running high,” he said.
Crude prices were also supported by a large fall in U.S. inventories.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) industry group reported crude stockpiles fell by 7.7 million barrels in the week ended April 30, according to two market sources. That was more than triple the drawdown expected by analysts polled by Reuters. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels.
Traders are awaiting data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday to see if official data shows such a large fall.
“If confirmed by the EIA, that would mark the largest weekly fall in the official data since late January,” Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
The rise in oil prices to nearly two-month highs has been supported by COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the United States and Europe.
Euro zone business activity accelerated last month as the bloc’s dominant services industry shrugged off renewed lockdowns and returned to growth.
“The partial lifting of mobility restrictions, the expectation that tourism will return in the near future, and the lure of the psychologically important $70 mark are all likely to have contributed to the price rise,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.
This has offset a drop in fuel demand in India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, which is battling a surge in COVID-19 infections.
“However, if we were to eventually see a national lockdown imposed, this would likely hit sentiment,” ING Economics analysts said of the situation in India.
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