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U.S Payrolls Rose Less Than Projected in September

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U.S payrolls rose less than projected in September, wages stagnated and the jobless rate was unchanged as people left the workforce, signaling the global slowdown and financial-market turmoil are rippling through the world’s largest economy.

The addition of 142,000 jobs followed a revised 136,000 gain the prior month that was lower than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 96 economists called for a 201,000 advance. The jobless rate held at 5.1 percent, and wage growth was unchanged.

The weak report vindicates the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an interest-rate increase last month. Cooling overseas markets, a stronger dollar and lower oil prices that are hampering exports and manufacturing raise the risk that employers will hesitate before taking on more staff.

 A weaker-than-expected report “would chip away at confidence about the strength of the expansion,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “It may be a signal that there was a knee-jerk reaction by businesses to the market volatility.”

Employers added workers in industries including retailing, education, and leisure and hospitality.

Payroll estimates of 96 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 149,000 to 256,000 after a previously reported 173,000 advance for August.

The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, was projected to hold at 5.1 percent, the lowest since 2008, according to the survey median.

 Revisions to prior reports cut a total of 59,000 jobs from payrolls in the previous two months.

Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 118,000 after a 100,000 gain the prior month.

Government Hiring

Government payrolls rose by 24,000. Employment at state and local agencies is often influenced at this time of the year by swings in the education sector related to the timing of the school year.

There may be some payback after the surge in local government education payrolls in recent months, Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note before the report.

Factory payrolls fell by 9,000. Manufacturing and mining have been hurt by cutbacks in drilling and exploration following the plunge in oil and commodities prices. Exports also are weakening amid a China-led slowdown in global growth.

Retailers increased payrolls by 23,700. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose 35,000.

The participation rate, which indicates the share of the working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.4 percent from 62.6 percent. That was the lowest since October 1977.

The average work week for all workers fell to 34.5 hours from 34.6 hours.

Average hourly earnings were unchanged from the month before, the report showed. They increased 2.2 percent over the 12 months ended in September, the same year-over-year change as in August. They’ve posted a 2 percent gain on average since the current expansion began in mid-2009.

Among the few positive signs in the report was a figure showing more full-time job opportunities. Americans working part time who would prefer a full-time position decreased to 6.04 million, the fewest since August 2008, from 6.48 million.

Underemployment

The underemployment rate — which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want to work but have given up looking — dropped to 10 percent, the lowest since May 2008, from 10.3 percent.

The gap between the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate is one reason Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other policy makers have said they’ll increase interest rates only gradually.

In a speech last week Yellen said there are still people seeking full-time work who could be pulled back into the labor force if the jobless level fell further. She noted that “may involve a temporary decline in the unemployment rate somewhat below the level that is estimated to be consistent, in the longer run, with inflation stabilizing at 2 percent.”

In their meeting last month, policy makers projected this long-term rate was 4.9 percent, according to officials’ median forecast.

Central bankers delayed raising their benchmark interest rate in September. It’s been near zero since December 2008. Officials next meet on Oct. 27-28, and Yellen has been among those saying an increase this year remains on track.

 

Source: Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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Economy

IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

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In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

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