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The Urgency of Nigeria’s Economic Diversification

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Nigeria NSE

In 2012, Nigeria became the second African country to be listed on JP Morgan’s emerging market bond index and quickly became the biggest economy in Africa after surpassing South Africa with a GDP of $509.9 billion in 2013. Establishing itself as the second fastest-growing key emerging economy after China in 2014, with crude oil at an all-time high of $107.64 a barrel, words get out, economists and investors across the world renewed their interests in the Nigerian economy, a nation of over 170 million people and growth rate of 7.4 percent.

However, all these were short-lived as global oil prices plunges, with Nigeria generating 53 percent of her revenue from crude oil and 93 percent of her foreign revenue. The economic dip, Naira, Nigerian currency had to be devalued three times as Nigerian foreign reserve can no longer sustain fix rate of 155 naira to a US dollar, exhibiting characteristics of the first phase of economic recession, it became conspicuous that the nation that was once a global destination for investments needs a more sustainable economic policy with a long-term strategy.

Diversification

The ongoing discussion between the US and Iran has further proven that Nigeria can no longer exist as a mono-crude oil economy but as a multi-diversified economy. The research conducted by Bloomberg shows that global oil supply would increase in 2016, when Iran’s oil is expected to hit the global market and forces oil prices below the current level, in fact, analysts forecasted $20 a barrel for crude oil in 2016. If the Nigerian economy is struggling this much at $45 a barrel the state of the economy is better imagined when the crude oil price hit $20 a barrel.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the Agricultural sector employed 70 percent of the Nigerian labour market, which comprises mainly the youth. The service industry is currently the fastest-growing sector with manufacturing as the frontier, if Nigeria as a nation would overcome its current economic route there is a need for urgent economic diversification across all sectors.

The research conducted by Maria Uzonwanne of the Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University shows that “there exists a positive relationship between economic growth in Nigeria and diversification of other sectors because, when there was proper management of human resources, huge investment and concentration on agriculture, the Nigerian economy was recorded to be healthy and vibrant”, which means effective diversification strategy with proper management of manpower and government investment will not merely resuscitate Nigerian economy but also enables Nigeria to feed her growing population and subsequently eradicate poverty and create jobs.

Nigeria’s unemployed graduates are expected to increase by 24.33 percent in 2020, which means there would be more unemployed graduates by 2020 if nothing is done now, British Council.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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