Japan’s former top currency official Eisuke Sakakibara says the the nation’s central bank stimulus is nearing its limit, and the yen will gradually strengthen toward 90 per dollar next year.
Japan’s currency gained the most since July last week, touching 100.10 on Thursday, the day after the Bank of Japan shifted policy toward targeting the shape of the sovereign yield curve instead of money-supply expansion, while leaving the negative deposit rate and scale of asset purchases unchanged. The yen could break 100 “at any time,” and may “immediately” strengthen as far as 95, according to Sakakibara, who was dubbed “Mr. Yen” for his ability to influence the exchange rate while a senior Ministry of Finance bureaucrat in the 1990s.
“The yen would probably have a slow appreciation, so that I would not be surprised to see dollar at 90 yen at the end of next year,” the 75-year-old, who is now a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, said in an interview Monday. “At the very least, monetary easing is getting exhausted. They’ve been doing it for a long time. The effect is getting weaker and weaker.”
With its latest stimulus tweaks, Japan’s central bank has effectively positioned itself for the long haul, also scrapping a two-year time frame for achieving 2 percent inflation. After Governor Haruhiko Kuroda started quantitative-and-qualitative easing in April 2013, the yen depreciated as much as 26 percent versus the dollar to a 13-year low of 125.86 in June 2015. With the BOJ now cornering 36 percent of the Japanese government bond market, doubts have grown about the sustainability of the program. The surprise introduction of a negative-rate policy in January of this year only weakened the yen for one day.
Sakakibara says it’s unlikely the central bank will aggressively ease monetary conditions further. While a deepening of the negative deposit rate “is not unthinkable,” the probability is low because the policy has not been well received by financial institutions or the general public, he said.
Kuroda reiterated Monday there is no limit to monetary policy, and said talk of limits is not helpful at all.
The yen was at 100.93 per dollar as of 3:48 p.m. in Tokyo. It surged to as high as 99.02 on June 24, in the immediate aftermath of the U.K. referendum decision to leave the European Union. It is the best-performing developed-market currency in 2016 with a 19 percent appreciation versus the dollar.
Sakakibara accurately predicted the currency’s advance this year from near 120 per dollar to beyond 100 for the first time since 2013, defying the consensus among analysts at the start of the year for it to fall to 124. The median estimate remains that the yen will end the year weaker at 104 per dollar.
Strength in the yen has been exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s decision to refrain from raising rates so far in 2016. Futures signal 55 percent odds of tighter policy by the end of this year.
Given the diverging outlook for monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, some appreciation of the yen against the dollar “is only natural,” according to Sakakibara. However an exchange rate of 95-100 would be all right for the Japanese economy.
“This level of yen strength is not a crisis,” he said. “If it breaks 90 and hits 80, then I would start to consult with the U.S. for joint intervention.”
Naira to Dollar Rate Today: Naira Exchanges at N463 to Dollar on Black Market
Naira to Dollar Rate on Black Market Today Stood at N463
The Nigerian Naira to dollar rate slid slightly against the United States dollar on Tuesday on the black market as social unrest continues to weigh on the nation’s economic outlook.
The local currency lost N1 against the US dollar to N463 while against the British pound it remains pressured at N592.
This decline continues against the European Union’s common currency, the Euro. The Naira traded at N540 to a single Euro on the black market.
Naira to dollar rate plunged amid rising economic uncertainties and unclear policy path caused by both COVID-19 and government limited fiscal buffers to cushion the negative impacts of the virus on Africa’s largest economy.
This coupled with the ongoing social unrest by the Nigerian youths to force decorum across the Nigerian Police Force and call global attention to decades of systemic intimidation and harassment of innocent citizens.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange has been closing flat since Thursday and continued this week, suggesting that investors are concerns and wary of eventualities as they look to safeguard their investments.
Again, the projected third-quarter recession, low foreign revenue generation, weak consumer spending and the rising cost of living are some of the factors hurting the Nigerian Naira outlook.
Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate Dips to N462 at Black Market Amid Social Unrest
Youth Protests Weigh on Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate on Black Market
The ongoing youth protest in Nigeria continues to weigh on the economic outlook and investors’ sentiment across the board.
The Nigerian Naira to a US dollar exchange rate declined by N1 from N461 on Tuesday to N462 on Wednesday and in the early hours of Thursday at the black market.
Against the British Pounds, the Naira exchanged at N600, down from the N592 it traded on Tuesday. This decline continues against Europe’s common currency as the Naira dipped against the Euro by N2 from N538 to N540 on the black market.
The nationwide protest by the Nigerian youth to curb police brutality and harassment on daily basis continues to disrupt business activities in Africa’s largest economy.
Nigerian youths are saying enough is enough after the death of several youths by the law enforcement agency, Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), that was constituted to curb robbery but gone rogue and made extortions, harassments and in some cases killing of innocent citizens their means of livelihood.
Despite the government disbanding the unit and promise to redeploy officers to other existing units, commands and formations, the youths are saying they want a total discharge of corrupt officers and the entire reform of the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) before they will even consider backing down on the ongoing protest, especially after politicians started sponsoring thugs to attack peaceful protesters in Lagos and Abuja.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange closed flat on Wednesday amid rising uncertainty surrounding the government’s ability to de-escalate the situation given the fact that the youths no longer trust the administration or Nigerian government.
The Naira remained weak against global counterparts and expected to plunge further once the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report expected by many experts to plunge the nation into its second recession in four years.
Naira Declines on the Black Market on Tuesday
Naira Plunges Against Global Counterparts on Tuesday on the Black Market
The Nigerian Naira declined on Tuesday on the black market despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to prop up the value of the local currency against global counterparts.
The Naira declined by N4 from N457 per US dollar it traded on Friday to N461 on Tuesday morning. Against the European common currency, the Naira fell by N1 to N538 from N537.
However, the local currency improved by N3 against the British pound from N595 it exchanged on Friday to N592 on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s weak economic outlook continues to weigh on the Naira outlook, especially with the economy projected to enter recession in the third quarter.
Despite efforts to cushion the negative effect of COVID-19 on the nation’s economy, unclear policy path amid weak business sentiment and low foreign revenue generation needed to sustain economic productivity in a majorly import-dependent economy drag on Nigerian Naira value and the entire economic outlook.
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