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Yen Pares Drop as Traders Switch Focus to Europe’s Banking Woes

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The yen rebounded, paring an earlier decline, as stocks fell and Deutsche Bank AG dropped to a fresh record.

The resurgence in demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency showed the post-U.S. presidential debate effect inherited from Asian markets didn’t last long in the European day. Instead, renewed concerns over the health of the continent’s banking sector and the prospect of U.S. fines for Volkswagen AG came into play, reducing the yen’s fall.

It tumbled earlier from the strongest level in a month after a CNN/ORC poll following the first U.S. presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump showed 62 percent of viewers said Clinton won the contest, compared with 27 percent who gave the advantage to Trump. Aberdeen Asset Management Plc said higher-yielding assets would be hurt by a victory by the real-estate developer and reality TV star, while BK Asset Management recommended buying the yen if he won in December.

“There’s concern about the health of European banks — risks are skewed to the upside for the yen,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “And despite the perceived result of the U.S. presidential debate, we expect the market to become more nervous if polls remain close.”

Ups and Downs

The yen dropped less than 0.1 percent to 100.38 per dollar as of 7:10 a.m. in New York, having weakened as much as 0.7 percent after the debate.

Mexico’s peso — used by many investors as a proxy for the U.S. election outcome — was still the biggest gainer among 31 major currencies versus the dollar, jumping 1.6 percent to 19.57 per greenback, set for its best performance in almost three months. It dropped to a record 19.9333 before the debate.

As Germany’s biggest bank and carmaker, the fates of Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen are crucial to the European economy. VW has been caught up in a test-cheating scandal, while the lender’s woes worsened in recent days when it was reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out state assistance before national elections in September 2017.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Naira Remains Pressure at N465/US$ Despite BDCs Expecting $50.9m from CBN

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Naira Remains under pressure

Naira Remains at N465/US$ Despite BDCs Expecting $50.9m Injection from CBN

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s foreign exchange sales to the bureau de change operators (BDCs).

Since the apex bank resumed forex sales about two weeks ago, the local currency had only improved slightly against global counterparts as investors and businesses doubt the central bank’s ability to sustain forex intervention given the weak foreign reserves and low oil prices.

Two weeks ago, the apex bank injected $51.8 million into the foreign exchange market to ease scarcity and support Naira’s value, however, despite the amount injected, the local currency only moderated slightly from N480 to a US dollar to N443 before depreciating back to N465 following the increase in electricity tariff and complete subsidy removal.

In what appeared like investors have started pricing in a further decline in consumer spending, especially with inflation hovering above 13 percent and expected to rise further with an increase in prices.

Also, Nigeria’s unemployment rate remained high at 27.1 percent, meaning apart from weak revenue generation and definitely low tax revenue, businesses will not be creating enough jobs to cushion the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.

A situation expected to further weigh on Naira outlook against global counterparts, even with central bank forex sales.

The Naira exchanged at N465 to a US dollar on Tuesday despite Bureau de change operators expecting $50.9 million forex allocation from the central bank today. This means, the market no longer expect a meaningful impact from the apex bank intermittent intervention because of the disparity in the amount being injected and forex backlog estimated at slightly over $5 billion.

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CBN Moves Against 55 Companies, Individuals for Forex Infractions

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CBN Commences Investigation into FX Activities of  55 Companies, Individuals

In an effort to ease foreign exchange pressure and better manage the dwindling foreign reserves, the Central Bank of Nigeria has intensified fight against companies and individuals taking advantage of the nation’s limited foreign reserves.

The apex bank said it has commenced investigations into the activities of 55 companies and individuals engaging in foreign exchange transactions.

The central bank attributed the reason for the investigation to foreign exchange deals outside the official Investors & Exporters (I&E) forex window.

Some of the companies being investigated are Stallion Nigeria Limited, Interswitch Nigeria Limited, as well as a leading global shipping line, CMA CGM Nigeria Shipping Limited.

Other big names on the list are Petro-Afrique Energy Services Limited, Steel Force Far East Limited, Auto Petroleum Company Limited, Cavendish Mechanicals Limited, Aquashield Oil & Marine Limited, Haitch & Elf Integrated Services Limited, Fenog Nigeria Limited, and Promasidor Nigeria Limited.

The I&E window was established to facilitate foreign exchange transactions and encourage a moderate market-determined exchange rate.

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Naira Declines to N465 Against US Dollar on Black Market

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

Naira Falls to N465 Against US Dollar on Black Market

Nigeria’s economic uncertainties continued to weigh on the Nigerian Naira despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s forex sale resumption.

The local currency declined by N3 from N462 a US dollar to N465 on the black market even with over $58 million injected into the forex market through the bureau de change.

Against the British Pound, Naira depreciated by N5 from N595 to N600 on Friday while it dipped by N3 against the European common currency to N548, down from N545 it traded on Thursday.

A series of weak economic fundamentals and anti-people policy continued to hurt the nation’s economic outlook and investors’ confidence.

In a recent event, the Nigerian government simultaneously raised electricity tariffs, pump prices and foreign exchange rates in an economy that depends on imports for most of its supplies.

Also, with the unemployment rate at over 27 percent, inflation rate over 13 percent and the number of companies shutting downing operation rising on a daily bases, foreign investors and even local investors are now holding back on investments needed to support the nation’s weak foreign reserves and cushion the negative effect of COVID-19.

While the exchange rates have moderated slightly from COVID-19 peak, it remains close to COVID-19 record.

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