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U.K. GDP Would Suffer 10.7% Hit in Worst Case No-Deal Brexit

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U.K.'s economy
  • U.K. GDP Would Suffer 10.7% Hit in Worst Case No-Deal Brexit

The U.K. will suffer a major economic hit over 15 years if Parliament rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal and the country crashes out of the European Union with no new trade arrangements in place, according to official analysis.

A government report on Wednesday said GDP will be as much as 10.7 percent lower by 2034 if there’s no orderly exit and the supply of workers from the bloc dries up.

The new analysis paints a dire picture of the worst-case scenario but does not provide a clear picture of the economic impact of the deal May finalized with the EU last week. Instead it provides an analysis based loosely on a plan that’s already been rejected by the bloc.

The omission of May’s agreement is likely to be politically awkward for the government, because the numbers are intended to help inform politicians before they vote on whether to accept or reject the deal May has negotiated. The Bank of England will publish its own analysis later Wednesday.

If Parliament rejects May’s deal, the U.K. will be on course to crash out of the EU on March 29 into a legal limbo, with no special rules in place to regulate trade with the bloc. Backers of May’s deal hope the findings in the analysis will bring wavering politicians — especial Conservative rebels — into line.

The analysis is almost certain to provoke a backlash from Tory Brexiteers, who say predictions of economic damage are part of “Project Fear” and insist a no-deal Brexit would leave Britain better off.

May appears to be heading for defeat in the Parliamentary vote on whether or not to back her deal, which will be held on Dec. 11, amid massive opposition from pro-Brexit rebels in her own Conservative Party.

They point to Treasury analysis published before the 2016 referendum that warned of a possible recession within two years and a significant rise in unemployment. As it turned out, unemployment is at a four-decade low and the economy has recorded continued growth, though there is little dispute that investment and consumer spending have been adversely affected by Brexit.

The Treasury has been at pains to make clear that the analysis is a cross-government effort after arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson privately accused Chancellor Philip Hammond’s department of being “the heart of Remain” and trying to ruin Brexit. May’s office on Tuesday said that the work is an analysis rather than an official forecast.

A risk is that the study provides ammunition to all sides in the Brexit debate, including the campaign for a second referendum to reverse Brexit and those pressing for a Norway-style option.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Naira to Dollar Rate Today: Naira Exchanges at N463 to Dollar on Black Market

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Naira to Dollar Rate on Black Market Today Stood at N463

The Nigerian Naira to dollar rate slid slightly against the United States dollar on Tuesday on the black market as social unrest continues to weigh on the nation’s economic outlook.

The local currency lost N1 against the US dollar to N463 while against the British pound it remains pressured at N592.

This decline continues against the European Union’s common currency, the Euro. The Naira traded at N540 to a single Euro on the black market.

Naira to dollar rate plunged amid rising economic uncertainties and unclear policy path caused by both COVID-19 and government limited fiscal buffers to cushion the negative impacts of the virus on Africa’s largest economy.

This coupled with the ongoing social unrest by the Nigerian youths to force decorum across the Nigerian Police Force and call global attention to decades of systemic intimidation and harassment of innocent citizens.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange has been closing flat since Thursday and continued this week, suggesting that investors are concerns and wary of eventualities as they look to safeguard their investments.

Again, the projected third-quarter recession, low foreign revenue generation, weak consumer spending and the rising cost of living are some of the factors hurting the Nigerian Naira outlook.

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Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate Dips to N462 at Black Market Amid Social Unrest

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Youth Protests Weigh on Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate on Black Market

The ongoing youth protest in Nigeria continues to weigh on the economic outlook and investors’ sentiment across the board.

The Nigerian Naira to a US dollar exchange rate declined by N1 from N461 on Tuesday to N462 on Wednesday and in the early hours of Thursday at the black market.

Against the British Pounds, the Naira exchanged at N600, down from the N592 it traded on Tuesday. This decline continues against Europe’s common currency as the Naira dipped against the Euro by N2 from N538 to N540 on the black market.

The nationwide protest by the Nigerian youth to curb police brutality and harassment on daily basis continues to disrupt business activities in Africa’s largest economy.

Nigerian youths are saying enough is enough after the death of several youths by the law enforcement agency, Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), that was constituted to curb robbery but gone rogue and made extortions, harassments and in some cases killing of innocent citizens their means of livelihood.

Despite the government disbanding the unit and promise to redeploy officers to other existing units, commands and formations, the youths are saying they want a total discharge of corrupt officers and the entire reform of the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) before they will even consider backing down on the ongoing protest, especially after politicians started sponsoring thugs to attack peaceful protesters in Lagos and Abuja.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange closed flat on Wednesday amid rising uncertainty surrounding the government’s ability to de-escalate the situation given the fact that the youths no longer trust the administration or Nigerian government.

The Naira remained weak against global counterparts and expected to plunge further once the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report expected by many experts to plunge the nation into its second recession in four years.

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Naira Declines on the Black Market on Tuesday

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Naira Plunges Against Global Counterparts on Tuesday on the Black Market

The Nigerian Naira declined on Tuesday on the black market despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to prop up the value of the local currency against global counterparts.

The Naira declined by N4 from N457 per US dollar it traded on Friday to N461 on Tuesday morning. Against the European common currency, the Naira fell by N1 to N538 from N537.

However, the local currency improved by N3 against the British pound from N595 it exchanged on Friday to N592 on Tuesday.

Nigeria’s weak economic outlook continues to weigh on the Naira outlook, especially with the economy projected to enter recession in the third quarter.

Despite efforts to cushion the negative effect of COVID-19 on the nation’s economy, unclear policy path amid weak business sentiment and low foreign revenue generation needed to sustain economic productivity in a majorly import-dependent economy drag on Nigerian Naira value and the entire economic outlook.

 

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