The bullish spirit that gripped oil traders as industry giants from Saudi Arabia to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declared the supply glut over is rapidly ebbing away.
Oil is poised for a drop of 20 percent since early June, meeting the definition of a bear market. While excess crude production is abating, inventories around the world are brimming, especially for gasoline, and a revival in U.S. drilling threatens to swell supplies further. As the output disruptions that cleared some of the surplus earlier this year begin to be resolved, crude could again slump toward $30 a barrel, Morgan Stanley predicts.
“The tables are turning on the bulls, who were prematurely constructive on oil prices on the basis the re-balancing of the oil market was a done deal,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “It’s probably going to take a little longer than they expected.”
Oil almost doubled in New York between February and June as big names from Goldman and the International Energy Agency to new Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said declining U.S. oil production and disruptions from Nigeria to Canada were finally ending years of oversupply. Prices are set for their biggest monthly loss in a year amid a growing recognition the surplus will take time to clear.
“There’s lots of crude and refined products around,” said David Fransen, Geneva-based head of Vitol SA, the biggest independent oil trader. “Demand growth has faltered a bit.”
The stockpiles of crude and refined oil that built up in industrialized nations during the years of oversupply remain formidable, standing at a record of more than 3 billion barrels, according to the Paris-based IEA. Traders struggling to sell cargoes are hoarding the most barrels on board tankers at sea since the end of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the agency estimates.
In some countries the glut seems to be getting bigger, with weekly U.S. government data on Wednesday showing a surprise inventory increase in the world’s biggest oil consumer at at time when summer driving demand should deplete stockpiles.
The latest challenge for the market is “a shift in the surplus from crude to products,” Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. Refiners churned out gasoline earlier in the year to take advantage of cheap crude, and stockpiles of the motor fuel are now at the highest for the time of year in at least 20 years, EIA data show.
The next move lower could come as crude production ramps back up, said Adam Longson, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York. Canadian oil-sands producers have restored what was halted in May when wildfires menaced more than 1 million barrels of daily output. Nigeria has partially recovered after militant attacks curbed production to a three-decade low, according to the IEA.
In the U.S., production declines have leveled off over the past three weeks, EIA data shows. The weekly count of active oil rigs published every Friday by Baker Hughes Inc. has recorded its longest run of increases since August.
“Did the glut disappear in the first place?” asked Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “It was masked for a while by the shortfalls in Nigeria and Canada, but it did not disappear.”
Still, banks from Citigroup Inc. to Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA are confident the overall re-balancing of the market remains on track, despite the current price retreat, and that markets will recover by the end of year. The latest sell-off reflects the strength of the dollar, which curbs investors’ appetite for commodities, rather than any worsening of supply-demand fundamentals, according to Goldman Sachs.
“I would call it a bump on the road towards a looming rebalancing,” said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays in London. “The supply side is adjusting sharply and we will see it slow down a lot faster than demand from the fourth quarter onwards. The low price is creating a one-two punch moment for the supply side, taking off both current and future supplies.”
The recovery will take prices up to $50 a barrel by the end of the year, according to Barclays and Commerzbank. In the meantime however, sentiment has soured so much that further losses to $40 are inevitable, Commerzbank’s Weinberg said. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost as much as 1.4 percent to $40.57 a barrel on Friday.
“The oversupply will diminish,” Weinberg said. “But the market is deaf in one ear right now. Sentiment was too pessimistic at the beginning of the year, extremely bullish in June, and now back again to pessimism.”
Oil Rises to $43.76 Despite Falling Oil Demand
Brent Crude Rises to $43.76 Per Barrel on Friday
Oil price extended its gain on Friday despite OPEC and other experts predicting a further decline in demand for the commodity.
The Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose from $39.44 per barrel on Tuesday to $43.76 per barrel on Friday before pulling back to $43.42 per barrel.
The oil surged after reports showed that US oil producers were shutting down due to hurricanes and also that crude oil inventories dropped by over 9 million barrels in the week ended September 11, 2020.
The commodity started its bullish run a day after OPEC lowered its demand outlook for the year through the first half of 2021, saying recovery without COVID-19 remained slow.
“Once again, OPEC+ meets against a worrying backdrop of soft global oil prices and an uncertain demand outlook,” Cailin Birch from The Economist Intelligence Unit told CNBC via email on Thursday.
“We maintain our view that Brent crude prices will average just over $42 a barrel in 2020, assuming that OPEC+ partners reconfirm their commitment to output cuts at their September meeting,” Birch said.
Another expert, Tim Bray, a senior portfolio manager at GuideStone Capital Management, through an email said “I do not believe we should expect any material change of course out of the OPEC meeting this week when they review market fundamentals, in part because compliance with previously agreed production cuts has been high,” Tim Bray, senior portfolio manager at GuideStone Capital Management, told CNBC via email.
“It might set the stage for action at future meetings, however,” Bray said.
Coronavirus: European Investment Bank (EIB) Approves € 12.6bn Financing for Transport, Clean Energy, Urban Development and COVID-19 Resilience
€ 3.1 billion for COVID-19 public health and business financing; € 3.5 billion for private sector investment and working capital schemes; € 3 billon for clean energy and energy efficiency investment around the world; € 2 billion for Naples-Bari high speed train link largest loan in EIB history.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) today approved € 12.6 billion of new financing for projects across Europe and around the world.
New financing agreed today includes more than € 3.1 billion of COVID-19-related investment to improve public health, strengthen public services and back investment by companies in sectors hit by the pandemic.
Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, the EIB has approved € 20.1 billion to enable public and private partners around the world to better tackle health, social and economic challenges.
The EIB Board, meeting by video conference, also backed investment in agriculture, water, housing, telecommunications and urban development across Europe, as well as in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
“Fighting climate change and tackling the COVID-19 pandemic must go hand in hand to achieve a green recovery. The EU Bank is working around the world to help mitigate the impact of the pandemic on lives, jobs and businesses; and to ensure that investment focuses on sustainability, innovation, and on reducing the devastating impact of climate change. The 12.6 billion Euros of new EIB financing approved today show how we are working with thousands of local partners to make a long-term difference to people’s lives during these challenging times”, said Werner Hoyer, President of the European Investment Bank.
Largest ever EIB loan to transform travel in southern Italy
Passengers travelling between Rome, Naples and Bari will from 2027 benefit from reduced journey times, a quicker and environmentally friendly alternative to car transport, and improved connections thanks to the largest loan the EIB ever approved.
The EIB board gave the green light for a EUR 2 billion loan to support the construction of the new high-speed train link that will cut journey times by 1 hour and forty minutes between Naples and Bari. More than 2000 jobs will be created during construction and 200 once construction of the high speed line across a European cohesion region is complete.
The new green transport link, part of the Italian government’s “Unlock Italy” decree, will increase the competitiveness of raid transport, reduce carbon emissions and support social and economic development in southern Italy. It is part of the Scandinavia-Mediterranean Trans-European Network (TEN).
€ 3.6 billion to help businesses to better withstand COVID-19 challenges
Ensuring that entrepreneurs and employers can continue to invest and adapt to new challenges posed by COVID-19 is crucial.
Companies in the Baltics, Benelux, Cyprus, France, Italy, Spain, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as well as East Africa, Morocco, the Middle East and the Pacific will benefit from new targeted COVID-19 financing initiatives approved by the EIB today.
The new schemes, managed by local financial partners and banking intermediaries, will help reduce economic shocks, unlock new investment and enable targeted financing for sectors most vulnerable to COVID-19 uncertainties.
€ 3 billion for renewable energy and energy transition
Today’s board meeting agreed to support energy investment that will reduce energy use and increase generation of clean energy across Europe and around the world.
€ 1.6 billion will be used to finance small-scale local climate action projects in France, Italy and across the EU, managed by experienced financing partners.
Financing to support construction of new windfarms off the Dutch coast and in Bosnia, improve energy efficiency in Austria and Ukraine, renovate hydropower in Georgia, roll out smart meters in Lithuania and modernise electricity networks in Madeira and Hungary was also approved.
Millions of people across Africa and Latin America will be able to access reliable clean energy for the first time following EIB support for new off-grid solar schemes and energy transition.
€ 2.9 billion to improve urban and national sustainable transport
Rail transport in Italy is set to be transformed by EIB backed investment to upgrade rolling stock on the national network, alongside today’s approval of EUR 2 billion financing for the new high-speed line between Naples and Bari.
The EIB Board also agreed to support new investment to upgrade public transport in Sarajevo and Krakow, and to help improve a key motorway link in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Improving urban development and social housing
Thousands of families will benefit from new large-scale social housing investment across France and in Germany under new financing programs approved today.
The EIB Board also agreed to support the New Slussen urban development project that will transform of the heart of the Swedish capital Stockholm.
Hospital patients will benefit from EIB support for construction of a new regional hospital in Tournai and approval of a national scheme to improve mental health facilities across Belgium.
A new scheme to support long-term healthcare investment in French regions underserved by medical services was also agreed.
Crude Oil Rises Despite Demand Concerns as Hurricane Sally Disrupts Further Production
Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Sally Disrupts Oil Production
Oil prices rose on Wednesday despite weak demand after strong hurricane sally threatens to disrupted operations of US oil producers amid a big drop in oil inventories.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is measured, rose from $39.34 barrel on Tuesday to $41.58 per barrel on Wednesday.
Accordingly, the US West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 1.8 percent to $38.96 per barrel.
American Petroleum Institute (API), a weekly oil projection report, on Tuesday reported that US crude oil inventories declined by 9.5 million barrels in the week ended September 11, 2020. This, experts at ING Research said if close to the real number due later today, could provide support for global oil prices.
The experts said, “If we see a number similar to the drawdown the API reported overnight, it would likely provide some immediate support to the market.”
This coupled with the fact that with reports that 25 percent of US offshore oil and gas output was halted and export ports were shut as the storm crawled offshore along the US Gulf Coast bolstered oil prices on Wednesday.
Oil prices gained despite OPEC lowering demand for the year, saying weak global recovery amid rising cases of COVID-19 will impact demand for the commodity through the first half of 2021.
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