- Report: Nigeria’s Rising Population a Ticking Time Bomb
The failure by policymakers in Nigeria to match the rising rate of reproduction with a corresponding level of productivity in the country, “has set the stage for a ticking time bomb,” a report has warned.
Lagos-based investment and financial advisory company, the Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), stated this in its latest bi-monthly economic update obtained yesterday.
While Nigeria recorded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.93 per cent in 2018, the country’s population growth rate is currently at about three per cent.
In fact, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on Monday stated that Nigeria’s population currently stands at an all-time high of 201 million, representing an increase of 5.1 million from the 195.9 million it said the country had in October last year.
The UNFPA in its 2019 State of the World Population report published on its website, had said the country’s annual growth rate has been at an average of 2.6 per cent from 2010 to 2019.
But the FDC in the report, stressed that Nigeria’s population “is large and growing.”
“According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Nigeria’s population is set to more than double by 2050 to reach 400 million and overtake the United States as the third most populated country in the world.
“This forecast of seemingly exponential growth in population is not necessarily a dire development. However, a failure to match the high rate of reproduction with a corresponding level of productivity has set the stage for what is a ticking time bomb.
“The year 2050 may still be more than 30 years down the road from today but Nigeria will not have to wait till then to be faced with the consequences of its population explosion and the lack of adequate infrastructure and development. “Much of it is clear and apparent. Nigeria was recently named the poverty capital of the world – overtaking much larger India, projected to rise sharply as the population boom continues without matching economic growth,” it added.
According to United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), the number of out of school children in Nigeria has risen to over 10 million – the largest in the world – even though primary education is free and officially compulsory.
The university system is in dire need of increased capacity as less than 30 per cent of the over 10 million applicants gained admission, the FDC report stated.
For the few that manage to pass through the educational system, rapidly rising unemployment remains a major source of anxiety.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics also showed the unemployment rate has more than doubled since the end of 2015.
It currently stands at 23.1 per cent compared to 10 cent at the end of 2015. This, the report noted was likely to worsen in the years to come as population growth currently exceeds GDP growth.
“This implies that there are more people being born, and in turn, more people joining the laboußr force than there are jobs being created,” it stated.
Continuing, the report pointed out that even the highly educated and skilled Nigerians are not left out of the scramble, “to escape the current economic uncertainty for a better life overseas.” “Canada is the new destination of choice due to its liberal immigration policies. However, this emigrant demographic does present one of the few bright spots for Nigeria.
“Remittances by Nigerians in Diaspora have been on the rise for over a decade now,” it added.
According to PwC, Nigeria has become one of the top five nations with high remittance inflows globally, and the largest remittance-receiving country in Africa.
“Faced with dire employment prospects, Nigerians are fleeing Many Nigerians have left and are still fleeing the country in search of proverbial greener pastures.” According to the world population review, Nigeria has a net migration per day of -164.
“This number means that 164 people emigrate more out of Nigeria than immigrate on a daily basis. “This works out to one net migrant every nine minutes. Many are sold on the promise of a better life and brave terrible odds in an attempt to reach Europe via the Sahara desert and the Mediterranean Sea.
“Sadly, many have ended up in a life of slavery or have become trapped in sex trafficking rings. The number of Nigerian men, women and children being registered at landing points in Italy has risen dramatically in recent years,” the report stated.
Lagos Loses N1 Trillion to #EndSARS Protest, a Year Budget – Gov
Lagos Needs N1 Trillion to Fix Vandalised Infrastructure, a Year Budget – Gov
The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has puts the total economic cost of past week destruction and vandalism in the state at about N1 trillion.
Sanwo-olu, who spoke with the speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, that was on a fact-finding visit to Lagos on Sunday, said the state may spend up to N1 trillion to fix damages done to infrastructure.
Speaking on the situation, Femi Gbajabiamila, said “The House of Representatives will do all it can to compensate all those who suffered brutality including policemen that lost their lives in the process.
“Also whatever the house can do in rebuilding Lagos and other states it will do. We are now in a state of reconstruction. What must be done will be done.
“I learnt from the governor of Lagos State that it will take N1.0 trillion to rebuild what had been lost and I asked him what is the budget size of the state he said about N1.0 trillion. You can see we are moving backward.
Rotimi Akeredolu, Chairman of the South West Governors, who was part of the visit, stated, “We are indeed surprised at the extent of damage to lives and properties in Lagos. We will be right to say Lagos was turned into a war zone.
“We are deeply concerned with the ease with which public buildings, utilities, police stations and investments of our people have been burnt despite the proximity of security agencies to those areas. However, while responding to the total number of government’s buildings burnt among others,” Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr Gbenga Omotoso, stated.
“We are still counting. The state is still taking inventories of all that happened and not until all that is concluded we can’t not ascertained for now the total number of burnt structures. But I can tell you it’s very huge.”
Experts Recount Nigeria Losses Ahead Possible Rebuilding, Recovery
Economic Experts Recount Losses Incurred from the #EndSARS Protest Ahead Possible Rebuilding, Recovery
Economic experts have started releasing reports on the size of the damage done to the nation’s economy following the #EndSARS protest that was hijacked by hoodlums and criminals.
The most affected state, Lagos State, will need about $1 trillion, an equivalent to its annual budget, to recoup the economic value of what was lost to the destruction and looting perpetrated by thieves masquerading as protesters.
A Senior Economist/Head, Research & Strategy, Greenwich Merchant Bank, Ayodeji Ebu, said the unrest and the 24 hours curfew that was later imposed by Lagos State to restore order could cost the state at least N54 billion per day.
He explained that the protest would hurt the nation’s foreign direct investment in the remaining part of the year and as well as the first quarter of 2021.
His words: “While it may be difficult to estimate the exact loss so far, based on the significant contribution of Lagos State (approximately 30%) to Nigeria’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and as over 50 percent of Nigeria’s non-oil industrial capacity is located in Lagos, the impact of the crisis will be enormous.
“This was further compounded with the 24hours curfew that lasted for about four days. Estimating using the Q2’2020 GDP data and assuming there was a total shut down, each day will cost Lagos alone about N54 billon.”
Speaking further, Ebu said: “With Lagos the centre of the civil unrest, which account for 70 percent or $1.1 billion of total capital importation in Q2’2020, we expect this to further impact on direct investment in Q4’2020 and Q1’2021.”
He expects that insurance claims to also rise in line with the damages done on lives and properties.
Similarly, analysts at Cordros Capital, a Lagos based investment banking firm, reacted to the negative impact of the unrest on the nation’s economy.
The analysts said the nation’s economy could contract by as much as 6.91 percent year-on-year in the final quarter of the year due to the unrest. Therefore, they projected a negative growth rate of 4.15 percent year-on-year for the 2020 fiscal year.
In their words, they said “The transportation, trade, and manufacturing sectors are expected to be the hardest hit.
“On transportation, we expect reduced domestic and international flight operations pending when normalcy is restored.
“Similarly, we expect compliance with curfew directives to hinder the free movement of people and goods across the country, further compounding the woes of the transport sector, which is yet to recover from the COVID-19 induced decline.
“While the manufacturing sector is currently being hampered by FX related issues and an unfriendly business environment, the imposition of curfews will further exacerbate the challenges of the sector.
“For the trade sector, the decline in household consumption brought about by higher food prices and shrinking consumers’ income will cascade into weak wholesale and retail trade in conjunction with the pre-existing supply chain constraints.”
Analysts at Fidelity Securities Limited also added their voices and said the protest may cost the nation more than the N700 billion estimation previously estimated by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce.
They said “The EndSARs protest and eventual escalation of the protest would cost the Nigerian economy way more than N700 billion initially estimated by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce. With the current level of destructions, it may take a while for business to run at full capacity as the government as well as the private sector will first have to channel funding into the destroyed infrastructure in a bid to restore things back to the way it was, before even thinking of further improving on the infrastructure.
“Given the level of destruction, more businesses have been affected, more jobs would be lost, and more families would further fall below the poverty line as a result of the looting and burning of business. This is expected to further worsen the economic situation of the country which was already suffering from the impact of Covid-19. The government at this point would need to think out of the box, if it aims to revitalise the economy in the shortest time, else our GDP growth rate may remain negative even into the new year.”
Accordingly, the Electricity Distribution Companies of Nigeria (DISCOs), on Sunday said the destruction of equipment it uses to deliver power and service operations will hurt its revenue generation and service delivery in October and the rest of the fourth quarter.
The DISCOs said “I tell you, assets are been destroyed, which is a significant impact on the industry. The DISCOs are expected to give power and how will it be achieved when our facilities including cables, poles, buildings are destroyed.
“That, however, transcends to money because the DISCOs cannot collect money for bills due to the unrest. Who would want to pay when everybody is angry.
“This means the remittance will be low to the Government on power we have collected. The protest has empowered Nigerians to fight back and the threat to lynch officials collecting bill are high. The properties and cables would have to be fixed on whose account?
“Seriously we are at a crossroad but we have signed an agreement to deliver power and that we would do.”
Nigeria Mulls Selling Electricity to Republic of Chad
Nigeria Considers Selling Electricity to the Republic of Chad
The Federal Government is presently considering selling electricity to the Republic of Chad after a request was made by the neigbouring nation.
The federal government-owned Transmission Company of Nigeria disclosed this on Sunday, adding that a meeting was held last week to discuss the possibilities of plugging the Republic of Chad to the nation’s grid.
Nigeria presently exports electricity to three neighbouring nations, Benin, Togo and the Republic of Niger despite struggling with power supply at home and failed to up its power generation more than the current level of 3,000 -4,500 megawatts in recent years.
On Sunday, the total power generated declined to 3,474.5MW as of 6am, down from 3,776.5MW on Saturday, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Electricity System Operator.
The total number of idle plants rose from 8 on Saturday to 11 on Sunday. These idle plants were Geregu II, Sapele II, Alaoji, Olorunsogo II, Omotosho II, Ihovbor, Gbarain, Ibom Power, AES, ASCO and Trans-Amadi.
A total of twenty-seven plants were presently connected to the national grid, which is being managed by the TCN.
“Meeting between Ministry of Power, TCN, and the Chadian Minister of Energy, Mrs Ramatou Mahamat Houtouin, to discuss the possibilities of connecting the Republic of Chad to the Nigerian national grid [was held] on Wednesday, October 21, 2020,” the TCN said on its Twitter handle on Sunday, alongside pictures of the meeting.
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