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Pound Hit by Uncertainty and Could Hit 1.20 vs Dollar if Talks Fail

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Naira Declines against pound

The pound will experience significant volatility this week and would plummet to 1.20 against the dollar in the event of a no-deal Brexit – which is looking increasingly likely to happen.

This is the warning from Nigel Green, the CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

It comes after the pound shed 0.6% on Monday and a further 0.2% in early trading on Tuesday as the penultimate round of Brexit negotiations start in London.

Mr Green says: “Fears over a no-deal Brexit are weighing hard on the pound this week, dragging Sterling lower against many major rivals.

“Widely regarded as a Brexit bellwether, the pound will be hit by significant volatility fuelled by politics.

“The brinkmanship between the UK and EU has been ratcheted up as the negotiators meet in London for the eighth and penultimate round of talks.”

Tensions have escalated this week as Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that if London and Brussels don’t reach a deal by October, the UK will be ready to accept this and “move on.”

The PM added his government is preparing for no Brexit trade deal.

In addition, reports that the UK is drawing up legislation to override the withdrawal agreement’s requirements for new Northern Ireland customs arrangements has sparked fury in the EU.

The deVere CEO continues: “The pound rallied through the summer months, but the holidays are over and we can expect the currency to come under pressure between now and the de-facto October deadline.”

He adds: “If the talks fail and there’s a no-deal Brexit, the already vulnerable pound will take another hit. I believe it could fall to 1.20 against the dollar.

“It was just below $1.50 before Britain voted to leave the EU in June 2016.”

Last week Mr Green warned that “complacency should be avoided amid real and growing concerns that a sell-off [of the pound] could be on the horizon.”

He concludes: The pound is being squeezed hard and this will continue for the next few weeks as expectations that trade negotiations will fail increase.

“Investors need to monitor the trajectory of the pound to mitigate risks to their portfolios – especially if it is not properly diversified – as well as to capitalise on the opportunities that inevitably arise during times of volatility.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Naira Declines to N465 Against US Dollar on Black Market

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

Naira Falls to N465 Against US Dollar on Black Market

Nigeria’s economic uncertainties continued to weigh on the Nigerian Naira despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s forex sale resumption.

The local currency declined by N3 from N462 a US dollar to N465 on the black market even with over $58 million injected into the forex market through the bureau de change.

Against the British Pound, Naira depreciated by N5 from N595 to N600 on Friday while it dipped by N3 against the European common currency to N548, down from N545 it traded on Thursday.

A series of weak economic fundamentals and anti-people policy continued to hurt the nation’s economic outlook and investors’ confidence.

In a recent event, the Nigerian government simultaneously raised electricity tariffs, pump prices and foreign exchange rates in an economy that depends on imports for most of its supplies.

Also, with the unemployment rate at over 27 percent, inflation rate over 13 percent and the number of companies shutting downing operation rising on a daily bases, foreign investors and even local investors are now holding back on investments needed to support the nation’s weak foreign reserves and cushion the negative effect of COVID-19.

While the exchange rates have moderated slightly from COVID-19 peak, it remains close to COVID-19 record.

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Forex

Zenith Bank Joins Other Banks to Cap International Spend Limit at $100/Month

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Zenith Bank

Zenith Bank Caps International Spend Limit at $100 Per Month

Following persistent forex scarcity impacting the nation, Zenith Bank has joined other deposit money banks capping international spend limits.

In an e-mail to customers, the lender said “Please be informed that the monthly international spend limit for your Zenith Bank Naira Card has been reviewed to US$100 while the use of Zenith Bank Naira cards for international Automated Teller Machine cash withdrawals is still temporarily suspended.’

It added that this review is in response to change in Nigeria’s macroeconomic factors.

The bank, however, advised those with higher international spend requirements than the US$100 stipulated above to visit any Zenith branch and request a foreign currency debit or prepaid card “which are available in US Dollar, Pounds and Euro variants.”

This is coming a few weeks after UBA, GTBank, First Bank and others capped their international spend limits to $100 for similar reasons. However, Zenith’s decision was after the Central Bank of Nigeria commenced forex sale to the Bureau De Change Operators across the country.

 

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Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Inflows Decline by 43.2% in May

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CBN Says Foreign Exchange Inflows Decline to $5.52bn in May

The total foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria in the month of May declined by 43.2 percent, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s report.

The report said the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted capital inflows during the month as the total foreign exchange inflows dropped to $5.52 billion.

It said “Inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources were negatively impacted.

“On a month-on-month basis, foreign exchange flows into the economy declined to $5.52bn in May 2020.

“The decline in inflow, relative to the level in April 2020, was attributed to the lower receipts from oil sources, which fell sharply by 55.2 per cent because of the continued fragility in global crude oil demand.

“Inflow through autonomous sources, particularly invisible purchases, declined by 7.0 per cent to $3.51bn, relative to the preceding month, while there was a 66.2 per cent fall in inflow through the CBN, which stood at $2.01bn in May 2020.”

However, foreign exchange outflows from the country declined by 23.9 percent to $2.50 billion in the month. Likely because of forex scarcity and the central bank forex rate adjustments that curbed outflows by foreign investors.

A break down of the report showed that outflow through the apex bank declined by 30.9 percent to $2.19 billion, below what was recorded in April.

But outflow through autonomous sources, mainly imports and Invisibles, rose by 152.2 percent to $0.32 billion. Higher than the amount reported for the month of April.

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