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Oil Price: Nigeria, Others Commit to Exceed Voluntary Output Cut

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  • Oil Price: Nigeria, Others Commit to Exceed Voluntary Output Cut

Nigeria and other member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as their non-OPEC allies led by the Russian Federation have said they are committed to making their voluntary oil production adjustment plan work efficiently, and would in this regard follow through their respective commitments in the next coming months.

The group, according to a statement from OPEC after its recent meeting in Baku Azerbaijan, noted that overall adherence to the voluntary output cut observed by them in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation,’ framework got to 90 per cent in February, some seven per cent higher than the 83 per cent recorded in January.
The statement disclosed that Nigeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), were appointed into the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) which periodically reviews developments in the oil market with regards to the adjustment framework.

“The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) convened in Baku, the Republic of Azerbaijan, for its thirteenth meeting on 18 March 2019.
“The Committee reviewed the monthly report prepared by its Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and recent developments in the global oil market, as well as immediate prospects for the remainder of 2019.

“The JMMC reiterated the critical role that the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has played in supporting oil market stability since December 2016 and took note of the expressed commitment of all participating countries to ensure that such stability continues on a sustainable basis, as overall conformity reached almost 90 per cent for the month of February 2019, which is up from 83 per cent in the month of January,” OPEC stated.

It explained that the committee recognised the current, critical uncertainties surrounding the global oil market throughout 2019, and indicated the need for shared responsibility of all participating countries to restore market stability and prevent the recurrence of any market imbalance.

According to the organisation, “All participating countries present at the meeting, individually and collectively, assured the committee that they will exceed their voluntary production adjustments over the coming months.

“To this end, the JMMC also urged all participating countries, including those not present at today’s meeting, to achieve full and timely conformity with their voluntary production adjustments under the decisions of the 175th Meeting of the OPEC Conference, 6 December 2018, and the 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, 7 December 2018.”

It said that in consideration that market fundamentals were unlikely to materially change in the next two months, “the JMMC adopted a recommendation to forego the full Ministerial Meeting in April and instead schedule a JMMC meeting in May ahead of the OPEC Conference meeting on 25 June, during which a decision will be taken on the production target for the second half of 2019.”

The JMMC, it added also endorsed the adjustments of the baselines of three countries – Brunei Darussalam, Ecuador and Malaysia, while welcoming Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and the UAE as new members.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial market.

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Economy

UK Slides Into Deepest Recession Following 20.4% Economic Contraction in Q2

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UK Finally Slides Into Recession, Expert Expects Investors to Look Elsewhere

United Kingdom experienced its deepest economic recession on record in the second quarter of 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This was coming shortly after the world’s fifth-largest economy exit the European Union in January.

The economy had contracted by 2.2 percent in the first quarter of the year when the negative impacts of COVID-19 were partially captured by the ONS.

In the second quarter, the report captured the complete impacts of COVID-19 on the economy in the second quarter and the entire first half of the year.

The report showed the United Kingdom’s economy contracted by another 20.4 percent in the second quarter, the deepest in the history of the nation.

A break down of the report revealed that the country’s most dominant sector, the services sector contracted by 19.9 percent in the second quarter. While the construction plunged by 35 percent.

This was followed by another 16.9 percent decline in the production industries that comprises of manufacturing, mining and energy provision.

Similarly, spending in the economy dropped with the lockdown that forced many people to stay at home during the quarter. Spending dipped by a quarter on weak retail sales and mostly idle factories and production sites.

While the economy contracted by 20.4 percent in the second quarter, the data reported a unique improvement in the last month of the quarter. The British economy expanded by 8.7 percent in the month of June, suggesting that the economy picked with the gradual reopening of business operations and activities across key sectors.

However, experts doubt the noticeable recovery would be enough to sustain the economy given the lack of COVID-19 vaccine.

Whilst the economy grew 8.7% in June, which beat economic estimates, and confirms a recovery is now underway, the real test will be after the summer when there are no more national lockdown-easing measures to lift the economic spirits, more local restrictions are likely to be imposed and as significant programmes such as the furlough scheme which has protected jobs come to a halt,” stated Nigel Green, the Founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of deVere stated on Tuesday in an email to Investors King.

All of this creates ever more uncertainty in the UK economy.

The CEO added that global investors are likely to initiate precautionary measures to protect their assets against potential fall in UK-based financial assets going forward.

Mr. Green said “UK and global investors will be becoming increasingly nervous of this worrying situation and can be expected to take precautionary measures to insulate themselves against a potential fall in the value of UK-based financial assets.

“A growing number inevitably and quite sensibly are likely to be looking to grow and safeguard their wealth by moving assets overseas through various established international financial solutions.

“The pace of this trend, I believe, will increase over the next few months as the issues intensify.”

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Jagged Reopening of Nations Worldwide Paves Uncertain Path to Economic Recovery

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As economies reopen globally, there is a constant battle to achieve a balance between surging COVID-19 cases and addressing economic slowdown.

Due to the prevailing uncertainty following COVID-19, Global Data’s 2020 forecast for global economic growth has been revised downward from -0.9% (estimated 6 April) to -3.95% (estimated 3 August).

The signs of a faltering rebound is evident in countries such as the US, which may act as a drag on the European economy. GlobalData expects the global economy to witness a contraction of real GDP by 3.95% in 2020 accompanied with a growth of 5.27% in 2021, which is subject to change in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 spread amid resurgence of cases in major economies.

Shruti Upadhyay, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, states: “As businesses have been allowed to reopen and retail sales improved, an uptick was observed in the manufacturing and service sectors in the last three months (May–July) globally. GlobalData noted that manufacturing PMI showed an overall improvement in June for countries such as the US (49.8), Brazil (51.6), India (47.2), Russia (49.4), the UK (50.1), France (52.3) and China (50.9). Historically, when the index surpasses 50, it gestures an end to a manufacturing recession. However, with regional lockdowns gaining traction due to resurgence of cases, business conditions now continue to witness patchy recovery.

Retail sales in the Eurozone plunged to record lows when confinement measures were put in place, but sales rebounded as economies started reopening in a phased manner. Asymmetric demand led to rise in retail sector activities and a fall in demand for contact-intensive sectors. Countries that are cripplingly reliant on contact-intensive industries are expected to be deeply impacted in short-term. A slow recovery is being noticed in the active jobs and stock market, both in advanced and emerging economies with varying severity of fresh outbreaks and different pace of openings in the economy.

Upadhyay concludes: “The Eurozone’s reopening provides a beacon of light to countries such as the US, India and Brazil which are battling with rising number of cases in the country. However, with draconian lockdown measures lifted to reignite the damaged economies, the number of virus cases crept higher in Spain, France and Germany as these nations grapple between saving the economy and averting fresh outbreaks.

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UK Recession Will Prompt Investors to Consider Overseas Options

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UK Investors Likely to Look Elsewhere as Economy Shrinks by 20.4%

A growing number of UK and global investors are likely to move their assets overseas as Britain enters its worst recession in history, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

The observation from Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, comes as it is revealed that the UK economy suffered its biggest drop on record between April and June as coronavirus lockdown measures pushed the country officially into recession.

The economy contracted by 20.4% compared with the first three months of the year.

Mr Green notes: “As was expected, Britain is now officially in recession. It’s the deepest recession in UK history and the deepest of any G7 country.

“Whilst the economy grew 8.7% in June, which beat economic estimates, and confirms a recovery is now underway, the real test will be after the summer when there are no more national lockdown-easing measures to lift the economic spirits, more local restrictions are likely to be imposed and as significant programmes such as the furlough scheme which has protected jobs come to a halt.

“All of this creates ever more uncertainty in the UK economy.”

He continues: “UK and global investors will be becoming increasingly nervous of this worrying situation and can be expected to take precautionary measures to insulate themselves against a potential fall in the value of UK-based financial assets.

“A growing number inevitably and quite sensibly are likely to be looking to grow and safeguard their wealth by moving assets overseas through various established international financial solutions.

“The pace of this trend, I believe, will increase over the next few months as the issues intensify.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add that the confirmation of a recession “may be a good excuse to start that much-needed rebalancing in favour of global stocks, bonds, currencies and perhaps property.”

The weak economy also further boosts the chances of tax hikes and relief cuts in the UK November Budget.

“It is highly likely taxes will rise and reliefs be cut. Possible targets for hikes could include income tax for higher earners, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, and VAT.

“In addition, new wealth taxes may be brought in, which was something the Prime Minister was considering before the pandemic hit,” notes Mr Green.

These potential changes in the Budget can be expected to prompt those overseas with financial ties to the country, to look into the international options available to them.

He concludes: “Now could be a good time to revise your financial planning strategies to ensure you’re best-positioned to be able to grow and protect your wealth.”

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