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Nigeria’s Projected 2.5mbpd Oil Output Cannot Grow Economy

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  • Nigeria’s Projected 2.5mbpd Oil Output Cannot Grow Economy

The Nigerian Association of Energy Economics (NAEE) has said Nigeria’s constant projection of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production in her national budget will be inadequate to grow her economy, stressing that the country needs to produce at least 4 million bpd to boost the economy.

NAEE also said the country’s continued reliance on generating sets to provide the energy needed by her economy was abnormal.

It said the country appeared unserious with the kind of energy policy it wanted to pursue for her economic growth.

President of NAEE, Prof. Wumi Iledare stated at the association’s celebration of the 2016 World Energy Day in Abuja, that the 2.5mbpd oil production projection of the country showed that her economy is not competitive and growing at a rate commensurate with that of her competitors.

“My premise is that if you look at the population of Nigeria and what you need energy to do, and I gave an example of the population of the United States with 300 million people, they consume 16 to 8mbpd and translated that to us that if the Nigerian economy is actually growing the way it is supposed to grow, the 2.5mbpd will be used by our economy and there won’t be any to export,” said Iledare.

He also said: “So, I foresee a situation where if we are going to have any oil export at all, we should be targeting at least 4mbpd. If we are going to grow our GDP at 12 per cent per annum to be able to catch up with the world, we cannot use our oil for money, we should use our oil for power and 2.5mbpd cannot generate the electricity that we need to grow our economy. Oil is an input of production and that is what it should be. If this economy expands, 2.5mbpd will not sustain it.”

Iledare also spoke on the country’s electricity sector, saying that the economy’s reliance on generating sets as an energy source was unsustainable.

According to him, “4000MW of electricity for 170 million people cannot grow the economy and the only reason why we are still happy is because we are looking at energy from a residential point of view. 4000MW for an economy like ours is a child’s play and that is why we depend on generators.”

“It is inefficient to use generators to power an economy and that is why the cost per dollar of GDP in Nigeria is significantly high, meaning that our economy is using energy inefficiently,” he stated.

He said on claims by electricity operators in the country that they do not have a tariff that is cost reflective for investment in the sector: “All over the world, when you are in a monopoly market, you cannot allow the supplier of that monopoly product to fix the price. In the energy sector, the price cannot be uniformed because the cost of distributing energy to different sectors of the economy will be different.”

“When you find out the cost of what it will take you to deliver your energy, you go to the NERC and debate it to get the tariff that will fall within the expected investment costs. You cannot increase tariff without investment that is where the problem is, the Discos cannot ask for a higher price if they do not have the evidence that they actually invested money to improve services,” he added.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Economy

Electricity Consumers, Hoteliers, Others Kick Against Petrol Price, Power Tariff Hikes

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Groups Kick Against Increase in Petrol Price, Power Tariff

The Network for Electricity Consumers Advocacy of Nigeria, the Nigerian Hotels Association, the Federation of Tourism Associations of Nigeria, Hotel Owners Forum, Abuja, and Power Up Nigeria have all kicked against the recent increases in power tariff and petrol price.

In a joint press conference held in Abuja on Friday, the groups rejected the increase and demanded an urgent reversal, saying the economic hardship imposed on Nigerians and businesses in the country by the COVID-19 pandemic would worsen if the increases in electricity tariff and petrol remains.

The speech jointly signed by presidents of NHA, FTAN, HOFA, Power Up Nigeria and read by the NECAN Secretary, Uket Obonga, the groups said it was sad that the Federal Government had chosen to compound the suffering of the Nigerian people at a time when the rest of the world are making efforts to ease the impacts of COVID-19 on their citizens.

They said, “It is sad to note that while other nations are enacting policies and taking measures to cushion the hardship imposed on their citizens by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Government has chosen to place an unpardonable burden on Nigerians.

“This burden is not only the electricity tariff increase but also the hike in the pump price of petrol at a time that the people are suffocating under a distressed economy.”

They added, “It is very unfortunate that the Federal Government could allow itself to be misled into believing that tariff increase is the silver bullet that will shoot the sector revenues to Eldorado.”

The groups further stated that the cause of weak revenue in the power sector had not been addressed, neither is the nation’s low internally generated revenue addressed.

According to the groups, this was not the first time power distributors companies were pushing for a tariff increase, but the past Multi Year Tariff Order reviews that ended up increasing the price of electricity did not yield the desired result.

They said, “Recall that as soon as the MYTO 2015 order came into effect on February 1, 2016, the power distribution companies began another quest for further increase.

“They flagrantly disregarded the provisions of the MYTO path and energy charges contained therein, as the Discos went ahead to choose which tariff rate to use in determining bills given to the customers.

The groups argued that the incessant request for tariff increase had become a hypothetical exercise rather than the solution to the sector’s revenue problem.

We, therefore, wish to state categorically that we reject the September 1, 2020 tariff increase as ordered by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission,” they said.

They added, “We call on the Federal Government to rescind the increase because we note that there is nothing put on the ground to cushion the effect of the dual increase of the end user tariff and the pump price of petrol.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has approved power distribution companies (DisCos) to start collecting 87.9 percent of the recently raised electricity tariff from consumers in the first half of 2021.

This was disclosed in the latest tariff review documents forwarded to the 11 power distribution companies in the country. Also, DisCos were approved to start collecting 100 percent of the new tariff from the second half of 2021.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Electricity Consumers to Start Paying Full Rates from H2 2020

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Electricity Consumers to Pay Full Rates from July 2021

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has approved power distribution companies to collect an average of 87.9 percent of the recently raised electricity tariff from consumers in the first half of 2021.

In the latest tariff review documents issued to the 11 power distribution companies, power distribution companies had been approved to collect 100 percent of the new tariff from July to December 2021.

The approved new collection rates for the Discos means that Nigeria’s electricity consumers would be required to pay higher tariffs starting from the second half of 2021.

This is coming despite Nigerians kicking against the increase implemented on September 1, 2020. Nigerians have declared the numerous increases by President Muhammadu Buhari as anti-people policy, saying the administration continues to compound the people’s burden despite COVID-19 negative impacts on them.

A few numbers of Nigerians have staged protests to compel the administration to revise increases on Value Added Tax, pump price and electricity tariff because of the ongoing economic uncertainties and weak macroeconomic data after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the inflation rate rose above 13 percent, unemployment rate hits 27.1 percent and general plunged in economic activities and earnings of the Nigerian people.

However, the approval means DisCos will collect an average of 88 percent tariff in the first half of 2021 and up it to 100 percent in the second half of 2021 as contained in the NERC’s directive.

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Economy

Shipping Companies Lost 1,382 Containers to Bad Weather Yearly – Report

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World Shipping Council Says 1,382 Containers Lost Year

A recent report by the World Shipping Council has estimated that about 1,382 containers are lost at the sea yearly due to bad weather and other unforeseen circumstances.

In the report titled ‘Containers lost at sea – 2020 update’, the council attributed the disappearance of over 1,382 containers to severe weather, rough seas, ship groundings and structural failures as some of the problems which can result in containers being lost at sea.

The report said it used a survey-based system to calculate the losses made by shipping companies over a 12-year period.

It said, “Upon review of the results of the 12-year period (2008-2019) surveyed, the WSC estimates that there were on average a total of 1,382 containers lost at sea each year.

“With 12 years of data, it is particularly interesting to look at the trend of three-year averages, reported in each of the survey updates.

“In the first period (2008-2010), total losses averaged 675 per year and then quadrupled to an average of 2,683 per year in the next period (2011-2013).

“This was due in large part to the sinking of the MOL Comfort (2013) that resulted in a loss of 4,293 containers and further impacted by the grounding and loss of M/V Rena (2011) resulting in approximately 900 containers lost.

“Nevertheless, the next period (2014-2016) was marked by another vessel sinking with the tragic total loss of the SS El Faro (2015) with the loss of 33 crew members and 517 containers.

“Even with that, the three-year average annual loss for the period was 1,390, about half of the previous period. The downward trend continued into the most recent period (2017-2019) when the three-year average annual loss was almost halved again to 779.”

The WSC, therefore, encouraged governments and other stakeholders to improve container safety and reduce containers lost at sea.

This, it said could be achieved by making adjustments to the Safety of Life at Sea and revising the International Organisation for Standardisation standards for container lashing equipment and corner castings.

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