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Nigeria’s GDP May Hit $1.45 Trillion by 2030 – PriceWaterHouseCoopers

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Price Waterhouse Coopers
  • Nigeria’s GDP May Hit $1.45 Trillion by 2030

Notwithstanding the prevailing economic challenges which the country is undergoing, latest report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on the nation’s future has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may hit $1.45 trillion by 2030 if corruption is reduced and effective policies are implemented.

At biennial growth rates of five and seven per cent till 2030, the report estimates that Nigeria’s GDP could be $530 billion higher if corruption is reduced to levels comparable to Malaysia, while arguing that national policies should be guided not only by improvements in GDP but also a broader measure of development through the Human Development Index (HDI).

The report added that translating economic growth into real improvements in the lives of the average citizen poses a real challenge for policy makers, noting that three critical levers need to be improved to enable Nigeria reach its socio-economic targets which are measured by a high human development status.

The report identified the levers to include, improving the ease of doing business, enhanced labour productivity and reduction of the overall level of corruption perception.

Arguing its case, the report notes: “Despite strong economic growth at a CAGR of 5.3 per centpost-rebasing, Nigeria has been plagued with the jobless growth phenomenon as employment growth has only averaged 1.3 per cent. However, growth has not been broad based with persistent incidences of high poverty, unemployment and underemployment. Official unemployment rose from 6.0 per cent in 2011 to 8.2 per cent in 2015, with a growing number of youths massively underemployed at 18.3 per cent of the labour force.

Though growth in the Nigerian economy has been driven by more labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture and services, income opportunities have been limited due to low productivity levels and thus has not resulted in improved living standards for Nigeria’s growing population, hence, the need for developmental measures beyond GDP.

Advisory Partner and Chief Economist, PwC Nigeria, Dr. Andrew S. Nevin in his reaction said: “This research draws on a more direct and measurable approach to tracking improvement in human development. Using qualitative analysis, academic reviews and country case studies, we identified three critical levers that need to be improved for the average Nigerian to feel the impact of any growth in the economy.”

Progress across the three levers the report highlights, could result in a significant improvement in Nigeria’s HDI score thereby attaining a high human development status by 2030.

Specifically, PwC posits that Nigeria should target to improve Ease of Doing Business ranking through a higher Distance to Frontier score of 61 by 2030 (45 as at 2015).

Similarly, Labour productively currently at $3.61/hour should be improved to $12.05/hour by 2030 while Corruption Perception Index (CPI) score should be improved from 26 in 2015 to 34 by 2030.

“Translating economic growth into real improvements in the lives of the average citizen poses a real challenge for policy makers. Tracking progress across these three levers has the potential to boost the attention on HDI as priority in the public agenda. An analysis of these levers can identify areas requiring policy attention and specific strategies targeted at improving overall wellbeing can be formulated”, Nevin added.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Economy

Electricity Consumers, Hoteliers, Others Kick Against Petrol Price, Power Tariff Hikes

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power

Groups Kick Against Increase in Petrol Price, Power Tariff

The Network for Electricity Consumers Advocacy of Nigeria, the Nigerian Hotels Association, the Federation of Tourism Associations of Nigeria, Hotel Owners Forum, Abuja, and Power Up Nigeria have all kicked against the recent increases in power tariff and petrol price.

In a joint press conference held in Abuja on Friday, the groups rejected the increase and demanded an urgent reversal, saying the economic hardship imposed on Nigerians and businesses in the country by the COVID-19 pandemic would worsen if the increases in electricity tariff and petrol remains.

The speech jointly signed by presidents of NHA, FTAN, HOFA, Power Up Nigeria and read by the NECAN Secretary, Uket Obonga, the groups said it was sad that the Federal Government had chosen to compound the suffering of the Nigerian people at a time when the rest of the world are making efforts to ease the impacts of COVID-19 on their citizens.

They said, “It is sad to note that while other nations are enacting policies and taking measures to cushion the hardship imposed on their citizens by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Government has chosen to place an unpardonable burden on Nigerians.

“This burden is not only the electricity tariff increase but also the hike in the pump price of petrol at a time that the people are suffocating under a distressed economy.”

They added, “It is very unfortunate that the Federal Government could allow itself to be misled into believing that tariff increase is the silver bullet that will shoot the sector revenues to Eldorado.”

The groups further stated that the cause of weak revenue in the power sector had not been addressed, neither is the nation’s low internally generated revenue addressed.

According to the groups, this was not the first time power distributors companies were pushing for a tariff increase, but the past Multi Year Tariff Order reviews that ended up increasing the price of electricity did not yield the desired result.

They said, “Recall that as soon as the MYTO 2015 order came into effect on February 1, 2016, the power distribution companies began another quest for further increase.

“They flagrantly disregarded the provisions of the MYTO path and energy charges contained therein, as the Discos went ahead to choose which tariff rate to use in determining bills given to the customers.

The groups argued that the incessant request for tariff increase had become a hypothetical exercise rather than the solution to the sector’s revenue problem.

We, therefore, wish to state categorically that we reject the September 1, 2020 tariff increase as ordered by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission,” they said.

They added, “We call on the Federal Government to rescind the increase because we note that there is nothing put on the ground to cushion the effect of the dual increase of the end user tariff and the pump price of petrol.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has approved power distribution companies (DisCos) to start collecting 87.9 percent of the recently raised electricity tariff from consumers in the first half of 2021.

This was disclosed in the latest tariff review documents forwarded to the 11 power distribution companies in the country. Also, DisCos were approved to start collecting 100 percent of the new tariff from the second half of 2021.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Electricity Consumers to Start Paying Full Rates from H2 2020

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electricity

Electricity Consumers to Pay Full Rates from July 2021

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has approved power distribution companies to collect an average of 87.9 percent of the recently raised electricity tariff from consumers in the first half of 2021.

In the latest tariff review documents issued to the 11 power distribution companies, power distribution companies had been approved to collect 100 percent of the new tariff from July to December 2021.

The approved new collection rates for the Discos means that Nigeria’s electricity consumers would be required to pay higher tariffs starting from the second half of 2021.

This is coming despite Nigerians kicking against the increase implemented on September 1, 2020. Nigerians have declared the numerous increases by President Muhammadu Buhari as anti-people policy, saying the administration continues to compound the people’s burden despite COVID-19 negative impacts on them.

A few numbers of Nigerians have staged protests to compel the administration to revise increases on Value Added Tax, pump price and electricity tariff because of the ongoing economic uncertainties and weak macroeconomic data after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the inflation rate rose above 13 percent, unemployment rate hits 27.1 percent and general plunged in economic activities and earnings of the Nigerian people.

However, the approval means DisCos will collect an average of 88 percent tariff in the first half of 2021 and up it to 100 percent in the second half of 2021 as contained in the NERC’s directive.

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Economy

Shipping Companies Lost 1,382 Containers to Bad Weather Yearly – Report

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NPA

World Shipping Council Says 1,382 Containers Lost Year

A recent report by the World Shipping Council has estimated that about 1,382 containers are lost at the sea yearly due to bad weather and other unforeseen circumstances.

In the report titled ‘Containers lost at sea – 2020 update’, the council attributed the disappearance of over 1,382 containers to severe weather, rough seas, ship groundings and structural failures as some of the problems which can result in containers being lost at sea.

The report said it used a survey-based system to calculate the losses made by shipping companies over a 12-year period.

It said, “Upon review of the results of the 12-year period (2008-2019) surveyed, the WSC estimates that there were on average a total of 1,382 containers lost at sea each year.

“With 12 years of data, it is particularly interesting to look at the trend of three-year averages, reported in each of the survey updates.

“In the first period (2008-2010), total losses averaged 675 per year and then quadrupled to an average of 2,683 per year in the next period (2011-2013).

“This was due in large part to the sinking of the MOL Comfort (2013) that resulted in a loss of 4,293 containers and further impacted by the grounding and loss of M/V Rena (2011) resulting in approximately 900 containers lost.

“Nevertheless, the next period (2014-2016) was marked by another vessel sinking with the tragic total loss of the SS El Faro (2015) with the loss of 33 crew members and 517 containers.

“Even with that, the three-year average annual loss for the period was 1,390, about half of the previous period. The downward trend continued into the most recent period (2017-2019) when the three-year average annual loss was almost halved again to 779.”

The WSC, therefore, encouraged governments and other stakeholders to improve container safety and reduce containers lost at sea.

This, it said could be achieved by making adjustments to the Safety of Life at Sea and revising the International Organisation for Standardisation standards for container lashing equipment and corner castings.

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