- Dollar Pares Decline After Nafta Anxiety Defused
The dollar recovered early losses after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out a withdrawal from Nafta. European stocks fell as investors absorbed a string of news from corporate earnings to central bank decisions and plans to overhaul U.S. taxes.
The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar jumped, reversing earlier declines, as the White House said it won’t immediately terminate participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. stock futures signaled a higher opening while European shares retreated from a six-day rally.
Investors are searching for fresh impetus after an underwhelming tax cut plan from the White House. The Nafta statement emerged as a distraction for the currency market, while in the bond market, the next flashpoint will be the tone of the European Central Bank’s meeting Wednesday. Emmanuel Macron’s ascent in the French election this week blunted euroskepticism, creating room for policy makers to chart out their stimulus exit plan.
“We would expect the commentary to remain relatively upbeat on the growth outlook,” Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said in a note. He expects the ECB to wait until January to begin withdrawing stimulus. “Despite the result of the first round of the French election soothing market fears of potential euro disintegration risk we still expect this week’s ECB meeting to be too early to signal any meaningful shift in policy.”
Here are some key upcoming events investors are watching:
- The European Central Bank is up next. ECB officials have indicated little chance of a policy change on Thursday. The focus will be on any signals from President Mario Draghi that the central bank is debating an exit from its extraordinary stimulus.
- U.S. GDP is due Friday. It’s projected to show the economy expanded at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the weakest pace in a year.
Naira Plunges Against British Pound to N600 on Black Market
Naira Falls by N20 Against British Pound to N600
Economic uncertainties amid low oil prices weighed on the Nigerian Naira against its global counterparts.
The Naira plunged against the British Pound by N20 from N580 it exchanged two weeks ago on the black market to N600 on Thursday and remained at the same rate on Friday morning.
The local currency has remained under pressure since Coronavirus disrupted global economics and demand for global oil earlier in the year. Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy, was one of the nations affected by the low oil prices and disruption of global supply chain and logistics.
This coupled with a series of local challenges like the rising cost of servicing debt to revenue, weak manufacturing sector that depends on importation for most of its raw materials, unclear economic direction that deterred foreign investors and eventually weighed on the nation’s foreign direct investment and capital importation hurt the nation’s economic outlook and investment sentiment.
Against the Euro common currency, the Naira declined by N35 to N545 on Thursday, down from N510 it traded about three weeks ago.
This decline continues against the United States dollar as the local currency traded at N474 to a US dollar, down from N465 it was exchanged three weeks ago.
The inability of the Central Bank of Nigeria to support the local currency through sufficient dollar liquidity continues to impact the manufacturing sector and other key sectors that depend on importation for operations.
Also, the scarcity dictates the Naira exchange rate to its counterparts, especially after a recent report showed foreign investors are looking to access the US dollar to repatriate their funds.
Other factors, like the recent Shoprite announcement that it was pulling out of Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, due to falling revenue and challenging business environment compounded the nation’s woes.
Naira Declines Slightly on the Black Market to N474/$
Naira Drops Marginally on the Black Market to N474 Against US Dollar
Nigerian Naira declined marginally on Tuesday on the parallel market, popularly known as the black market.
The local currency declined by N1 to N474 per US dollar, down from the N473 it traded on Monday.
This was coming after Shoprite announced it would be exiting Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. The announcement further damped the nation’s economic outlook amid the already heighten economic uncertainties.
Nigeria continues to struggle with low dollar availability after low oil prices and weak global demand for the commodity eroded the nation’s foreign revenue generation.
On the Investors and Exporters Forex window, the Naira remained pressured at N389 to a US dollar, better than the N389.25 it exchanged on Monday but more than the N381 stipulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Total turnover traded by investors rose from $18.83 million traded on Monday to $24.66 million on Tuesday.
Experts have said the series of bad news emanating from the country will continue to deter potential investors and hurt capital importation necessary to boost dollar liquidity.
Forex Scarcity Weighs on Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing Sector Suffers from Lack of Dollar Liquidity
The Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf, has said lack of dollar availability continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector in the first half of the year as the sector recorded its third consecutive month of contraction in the month of July.
According to Yusuf, several manufacturers had to source for forex on the black market, increasing scarcity on the already stressed section of the forex even more. This, other experts have blamed for the high Dollar-Naira exchange rate on the black market.
On Monday, the Naira was exchanged at N473 to a US dollar on the parallel market popularly known as the black market. The local currency gained N2 from the N475 it was exchanged before the Sallah holiday to N473 on Monday when the market opened.
“Across, practically, all sectors, we are experiencing cost escalation, loss of credit lines enjoyed from foreign creditors, forex remittance challenges and many more. We need an urgent response from the CBN to calm the situation and restore confidence in our foreign exchange management framework,” Yusuf stated.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry said most of its 2,000 members have been hit by the dollar shortage and wide foreign exchange rate that is presently eroding their profits.
“If the situation persists, it will lead to lay-offs. If you are not producing, there will be a shortage of goods in the market, prices will go up,” he added
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