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Consumer Prices Improve Slightly to 17.24%

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  • Consumer Prices Improve Slightly to 17.24%

The cost of goods in Africa’s largest economy improved for the third consecutive month in April.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, the consumer price index (CPI) which measures inflation improved from 17.26 percent (year-on-year) recorded in March to 17.24 percent in April. Suggesting that the cost of goods have started moderating following a series of foreign exchange policy being implemented to curb escalating exchange rates and close the gap between the official window and the parallel market.

On a monthly basis, the consumer prices declined by 0.02 percent, slightly lower than the 0.52 percent decline recorded in March when the inflation rate was 17.26 percent.

However, the Central Bank of Nigeria which has sold about $4 billion so far introduced a new forex window in April to ensure that exporters and investors access foreign exchange at a market determined rate.

Ever since the new forex platform was floated, business confidence has surged to a new height, prompting both the local and foreign investors to increase their investment holdings. A move that has bolstered Nigerian Stock Exchange index to a 9 month high and position Nigeria as one of the 2018 investment destinations, barely a month after the new forex window was launched.

“The consumer prices and foreign exchange market have started exhibiting similar characteristic, the rate of decline is no longer proportional to the CBN intervention,” said Samed Olukoya, a foreign exchange research analyst at Investors King Ltd. “Therefore, the CBN has to address the fundamental factors impeding forex rate from improving below N388/$ even after about $4 billion has been sold to reduce illiquidity in the forex market.”

Speaking further, he said: “The rate of moderation of the consumer prices has started stalling, meaning we might not see significant improvement henceforth unless the CBN address those underlying factors.”

The CBN inject another $457 million into the forex market on Monday.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade long experience in the global financial market. Contact Samed on Twitter: @sameolukoya

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Economy

Crude Oil Rises to $43.68 on Monday Despite Concerns Over Rising COVID-19 Cases

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Oil Rises to $43.68  Despite Concerns Over Rising COVID-19 Cases

Oil prices rose on Monday during the London trading session to $43.68 per barrel despite growing concerns over the rising number of new COVID-19 cases.

The Brent Crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is measured, rose as high as $43.68 per barrel before slightly pulling back to $43.24 per barrel as at 1:25 pm Nigerian time.

UKOilDaily 1The US West Texas Intermediate crude oil remained largely unchanged as it traded at $40.64 per barrel on Monday. The same price range it traded last week.

Despite the rising number of COVID-19 new cases in the US and the rest of the world, Brent crude oil has been able to sustain the recent upsurge on the back of OPEC and allies 9.7 million per day production cut agreement and the reported improvement in compliance level.

However, experts have said if the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to increase that demand for the commodity will decline as people and businesses would be forced to shut down operations and stay at home.

“There will be some kind of decline in demand if cases were to increase as people will stay at home,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore’s OCBC Bank. “The pace of U.S. demand recovery will not be as steep as expected.”

Analysts at ING bank said in a note that the report of the Energy Information Administration due later this week will highlight the impact of the new restriction due to the second wave of COVID-19 on gasoline demand.

“We will get a better idea of what impact tighter restrictions in several states have had on gasoline demand with the EIA (Energy Information Administration) report this week.”

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Citigroup Sees $60 Per Barrel Crude Oil in the Next 12 Months

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Citigroup Says Crude Oil Will Reach $60 Per Barrel in a year

Despite the current economic downturn and the projected second phase of COVID-19, Citigroup, a New-York based financial service company, has said oil price could hit $60 per barrel in the next 12 months.

Citigroup disclosed this on Thursday during a virtual EMEA Media Summit titled – ‘Navigating the Future: What’s Next in a Post-COVID-19 World’.

“After a substantial underperformance in the last six months relative to several other commodities, crude will eventually bounce back to around $60 per barrel over the next 12 months,” Max Layton, European Head of Commodities Strategy, Citigroup said while giving a presentation on the outlook for commodities in the second half of 2020, and into 2021.

This means Brent crude oil would rise by at least 50 percent from the current level of $42 per barrel in the next 12 months.

“It’s going to be a function of the demand and supply but recently we have been seeing a spike in the demand for some of the commodities,” said Atiq Rehman, Head of EMEA Emerging Markets, Citigroup.

“A lot of these economies are heavily commodity-dependent, and perhaps, in the past have been guilty of not diversifying when they come under pressure. I think perhaps, this recent moves will push them to diversify away from simply commodities,” Grant Carson, Head of TRUK And Non-Presence Countries, Citigroup, stated citing Russian as one of the countries that have recorded success in diversifying away from crude oil.

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Oil Sustains $42 Price Level as OPEC Output Drops to Over Two-Decade Low

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OPEC Oil Output Drops to Over Two-Decade Low in June

Crude oil sustained $42 per barrel price level following a recent survey conducted by Reuters that showed the Organisation for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) managed to cut oil production to over two-decade low in the month of June.

According to the survey, OPEC’s 13 members pumped 22.62 million barrels per day in June, 1.92 million barrels per day below May’s revised figure. The lowest since May 1991.

OPEC and allies, together referred to as OPEC plus, had agreed to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day in the month of April to rebalance the global oil market and prop up prices amid COVID-19 pandemic.

OPEC’s share of the 9.7 million barrels per day production cut was 6.084 million bpd but OPEC delivered 6.523 million bpd cut in the month of June despite the inconsistencies from Nigeria, Angola and Iraq.

In June, Saudi Arabia reduced production by 1.13 million barrels per day to 7.53 million bpd. While Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates met their quota but struggle to fulfill the extra cuts.

Nigeria, Iraq and Angola continue to struggle in the month of June. However, their performance improved compared to May as Nigeria attained 77 percent compliance level, up from 19 percent in May.

While Iraq and Angola achieved 70 percent and 80 percent compliance level, respectively. Nigeria and Iraq have pledged to cut more in July despite their economic challenges. Angola, however, said it would not be able to cut extra oil production until October.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is measured, rose to $42.48 per barrel on Friday as at 2:58 pm Nigerian time.

UKOilDaily

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