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70 Million Youths Risk Unemployment this Year – ILO

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  • 70 Million Youths Risk Unemployment this Year

The International Labour Organisation has warned that the slow economic growth globally will render 70 million young women and men unemployed this year.

The organisation added that global economic growth in 2017 and 2018 would be insufficient to start reducing global unemployment, which is expected to rise to 201 million in the period.

Speaking at the International Monetary and Financial Committee meeting, the ILO Director-General, Guy Ryder, noted that prolonged period of slow growth since the global financial crisis was damaging productivity.

According to him, policies are needed to revive the positive relationship between productivity and real wage growth through increased investment, innovation, sustainable enterprise creation and decent work.

Ryder said, “The ILO is projecting that global unemployment will increase by 3.4 million in 2017 to reach a level in excess of 201 million. The increase in global unemployment is concentrated in emerging economies and reflects the continuing effects of deep recessions in 2015 and 2016 in several countries.

“Recent research on the impact of imports from China and Mexico on jobs in the USA shows that in localities where a major industrial employer has become exposed to increased imports, employment and wages fell both in the affected industry and the local economy. When the economy is growing, most job leavers find a new job quickly; but in periods of slow growth, it takes longer.”

The ILO DG noted that most countries lacked social protection systems for their workers, exposing them to vulnerable employment in the informal sector.

He added that the progress made in reducing the vulnerable employment in 2001 had been stalled by the weak economic growth.

He said, “Between 2000 and 2010, significant progress was made in reducing the proportion of workers in vulnerable employment, contributing to the parallel reduction in the incidence of extreme poverty. This was a period of robust growth and rising incomes in most developing countries.

“More recently, this progress has slowed significantly or stalled altogether. The rate of vulnerable employment is expected to decline by less than 0.2 percentage points a year in 2017 and 2018, leaving some 1.4 billion people worldwide in chronically poor quality jobs.

“The absence of enough decent work opportunities is dangerously destabilising for economic, social, environmental and political development and jeopardises realisation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.”

Speaking on income inequality, Ryder explained that an ILO research indicated a correlation between declining labour income shares, rising income inequality and slow growth.

“Inequality between women and men persists in global labour markets, in respect of opportunities, treatment and outcomes. Over the last two decades, women’s significant progress in educational achievements has not translated into a comparable improvement in their position at work. In many regions in the world, women are more likely to become and remain unemployed, have fewer chances to participate in the labour force and, when they do, often have to accept lower quality jobs,” he added.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade long experience in the global financial market.

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Investment

Barclays Tell High Net Worth Investors to Shun Africa and Other Emerging Economies

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Barclays to High Net Worth Clients, Stay Off Africa and Other Emerging Economies

Barclays, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has started advising high net worth clients to stay off Africa and other emerging economies.

According to Barclays, despite the recent recovery noticed in emerging-market stocks, investors are better off avoiding the risks that still abound in emerging nations. Barclays Plc, however, advised high net worth clients to focus on U.S equities despite the S&P’s breakneck rally.

The investment bank said emerging economies do not have enough fiscal buffers to spend their way out of the COVID-19 pandemic and will likely continue to struggle in the near-time compared to the US with 12 percent of gross domestic product fiscal-support.

It said the huge US stimulus may halt rebound in emerging-markets stocks as more money is expected to flow into the world’s largest economy and its European counterparts.

“Compared to the U.S., emerging-market economies appear more vulnerable,” said Haider, the London-based managing director and head of global growth markets. “Their central banks have less room to maneuver, their governments may not be able to provide unlimited support and equity markets, given their sector mix, can be more challenged by an economic slowdown.”

Barclays added that even after 33 percent rebound in stocks of emerging markets since the panic selloff subsided in March, stocks are still down by 9 percent from year-to-date while the US S&P 500 stocks are up by 45 percent. Presently, their stocks trading at a 36 percent discount to US stocks, up from 25 percent three months ago.

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Economy

Crude Oil Rises to $43.1 Per Barrel on Production Cuts Extension

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  • Crude Oil Hits $43.1 Per Barrel Following OPEC’s Production Cuts Extension

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil price is measured, rose by 1.25 percent on Monday during the Asian trading session following OPEC and allies’ agreement to extend crude oil cuts to the end of July.

OPEC and allies, known as OPEC plus, agreed to extend production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day reached in April to July on Saturday.

In the virtual conference, delegates agreed that members, including Nigeria and Iraq presently struggling to attain a 100 percent compliance level must keep to the agreement or be forced to do so in subsequent months.

Nigeria, Iraq and others failed to keep to the cartel’s agreement in May after reports show that Nigeria only managed to attain a 19 percent compliance level during the month while Iraq struggled to attain just 38 percent in the same month.

Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two largest producers of the group, warned members to stick to the agreed quota if they want to rebalance the global oil market.

While the errant producers such as Iraq and Nigeria have vowed to reach 100% conformity and compensate for prior underperformance, we still think they will likely continue to have some commitment issues over the course of the summer,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The potential return of Libyan output could also cause considerable challenges for the OPEC leadership.

Earlier on Monday, Brent crude oil hits $43.1 per barrel, more than a month record-high, before pulling back slightly to $42.83 per barrel.

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Gold Dips by 2 Percent on Better Than Expected Job Report

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  • Gold Dips by 2 Percent on Better Than Expected Job Report

Gold prices declined by 2 percent on Friday following a better than expected US non-farm payroll report.

The report showed an increase of 2.5 million payroll numbers against a decline of 7.5 million predicted by many experts.

The surprise number boosted investors’ confidence in US recovery as many dumped their haven investment (gold) for the stock market.

“We had significantly stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll numbers – an increase of 2.5 million versus an expectation of a decline of 7.5 million – that 10-million swing has brought forward expectations of the economic recovery in the United States,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Spot gold immediately declined by 1.9 percent per ounce to $1,678.81 while the U.S. gold futures slid 2.6 percent to settle at $1,683.

Gold was also being pressured by stronger yields and a slightly firmer dollar, “meaning the opportunity cost to hold gold in the portfolio has gone up,” Melek added.

The surprise didn’t stop there, US Dow Jones was up 614 points despite the protest going on the US and US-China tension.

Also, NASDAQ rose by 29 points while the S&P index added 50 points increase.

Note: Investors generally increase their investments in gold and other haven assets during a crisis to avert risk exposure and do the opposite once they sense a better economy.

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