Oil Prices Steady Below $100 as Trump Signals Restraint on Iran, Supply Concerns Persist

Global crude oil prices remained below $100 per barrel on Monday as investors assessed the possibility of easing tensions between the United States and Iran against persistent concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, gained 3 cents to trade at $98.35 per barrel as of 5:27 a.m. Nigerian time, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.5% to $91.30 per barrel.

The relatively stable prices followed a turbulent trading week in which Brent declined 16%, its steepest weekly loss since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Oil prices have come under pressure as expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict reduced concerns about prolonged disruptions to global petroleum supplies.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that further military strikes against Iran were highly unlikely as long as negotiations continued to make progress.

However, uncertainty surrounding shipping activities near the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for international oil shipments, continued to limit the decline in crude prices.

Recent attacks on commercial vessels have raised questions about the security of energy transportation routes, while Iran has warned that it would retaliate against renewed American or Israeli military operations.

The market is also confronting the possibility of excess oil supply as production recovers in the Middle East and output increases elsewhere.

According to JPMorgan, global petroleum supply exceeded consumption by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

The bank warned that recovering supply, combined with relatively weak demand, could place further downward pressure on crude prices.

Meanwhile, the Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh on Sunday. The incident reportedly caused property damage without casualties.

Although the attack did not establish a disruption to Saudi oil production, it reinforced concerns about the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the region.

For Nigeria, the direction of international crude prices remains important to government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and the broader economic outlook.

While elevated oil prices can support export receipts, sustained declines could weaken petroleum revenue, particularly if domestic production remains below potential.

Conversely, lower international crude prices could eventually ease pressure on petroleum product costs, depending on domestic refining arrangements, exchange rates and market conditions.

With diplomatic negotiations continuing and global supply expanding, investors will closely monitor developments in the Middle East for indications of whether crude prices can recover above $100 per barrel or face further losses.