Saudi Oil Pipeline Damage Threatens 4 Million Bpd as Repairs Could Take Six Weeks

Damage to Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline could keep the strategic export route out of operation for several weeks, threatening around 4 million barrels per day of crude flows and adding another major constraint to an already tight global oil market.

The pipeline was shut after drone attacks struck Saudi energy infrastructure on Friday, disrupting the kingdom’s principal overland route for moving crude from its eastern producing region to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Industry sources estimate that repairs could take anywhere from several days to five or six weeks, depending on the extent of the damage. Another source indicated that Saudi Arabia could potentially restore partial flows before repairs are fully completed. Saudi authorities have yet to provide a definitive timetable for restarting the system.

Satellite imagery released after the attack showed significant damage around at least one pumping station on the roughly 1,200-kilometre pipeline, underscoring concerns that the disruption could prove more serious than initially anticipated.

Pipeline Has Been Carrying 4 Million Barrels Daily

The East-West pipeline has become increasingly important to Saudi Arabia since disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained the kingdom’s traditional Gulf export routes.

Saudi Arabia has been using the system to redirect approximately 4 million barrels per day across the Arabian Peninsula to Yanbu, equivalent to roughly 4% of global oil supply.

Its strategic importance lies in its ability to bypass Hormuz.

Crude produced primarily in eastern Saudi Arabia can be transported westward and loaded onto tankers in the Red Sea rather than passing through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

For much of the past six months, that alternative has allowed Saudi Arabia to maintain substantially more exports than would otherwise have been possible as the Middle East conflict disrupted conventional shipping routes.

The latest attack has now compromised one of the principal mechanisms available to the world’s largest crude exporter for circumventing the troubled waterway.

Yanbu Oil Stocks Could Last Just Five to Seven Days

Saudi Arabia can temporarily maintain exports from crude already stored at Yanbu, but those inventories provide only limited protection if the pipeline remains offline.

Industry sources estimate that stocks available at Yanbu could support exports for approximately five to seven days without fresh pipeline deliveries.

The port has an estimated storage capacity of around 35 million barrels, although available tanks are not necessarily full.

Saudi Arabia also maintains crude stocks accessible through Egypt’s Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir terminals, which could provide additional short-term flexibility. But these inventories cannot indefinitely replace continuous pipeline flows.

That makes the speed of repairs increasingly important.

If Saudi Arabia manages a partial restart within days, the impact on global supply could be reduced substantially. A five-to-six-week outage, however, would create a considerably more serious problem once existing inventories begin to decline.

Saudi Supply Already Under Severe Pressure

The pipeline disruption comes at a particularly difficult time for Saudi Arabia’s oil industry.

Saudi crude production dropped to about 6.2 million barrels per day in August, according to figures Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC, compared with 10.9 million barrels per day in February before the current conflict intensified.

The decline reflects severe constraints on the kingdom’s ability to move crude to international customers rather than simply a shortage of production capacity.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen dramatically, while security concerns have also spread toward the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.

Before the war, Middle Eastern producers supplied approximately 22 million barrels per day to the global market. Current flows through Hormuz are estimated at only 6 million to 9 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to contract by around 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, illustrating the scale of the disruption already confronting the market.

Two Major Oil Escape Routes Are Now Under Pressure

The East-West pipeline outage is particularly significant because the global oil problem is no longer concentrated around a single chokepoint.

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while security risks are now increasing around Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

The latter has recently been carrying an estimated 4% to 5% of global oil supply.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was supposed to reduce dependence on Hormuz by moving crude toward the Red Sea.

But that strategy ultimately still depends on the security of Red Sea shipping routes.

The result is a narrowing of the alternatives available for moving Middle Eastern oil to global consumers.

Ships can take longer routes around Africa, but doing so increases voyage times, tanker demand and fuel costs. Reuters reported Monday that some alternative journeys could add around 22 days, while tanker rates have already reached record levels.

Brent Climbs Above $107

The escalating supply risks are already feeding directly into crude prices.

Brent crude rose about 2.8% to $107.54 per barrel on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained about 2.9% to $102.93. Brent briefly climbed above $107.80 earlier in the session.

Oil prices had already gained around 8% during the previous week as attacks on tankers and infrastructure increased concerns about the availability of Middle Eastern crude.

A prolonged Saudi pipeline outage could add another layer of support to prices.

The key issue for traders will therefore be whether the reported five-to-six-week repair estimate represents a worst-case scenario or whether Saudi Arabia can restore enough pumping capacity earlier to maintain Red Sea exports.

Until that becomes clearer, the global market faces the possibility that around 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude previously rerouted around Hormuz could become increasingly difficult to deliver once existing inventories at Yanbu are depleted.