17 Million Barrels Cross Strait of Hormuz as Oil Supply Risks Deepen

About 17 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the highest volume to cross the strategic waterway since the Iran conflict disrupted crude flows.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright disclosed the volume on Tuesday, providing a rare indication of the amount of oil successfully moving through the waterway after months of disruption.

The increase suggests crude is still reaching international markets despite restrictions around Hormuz, but the recovery in flows remains vulnerable as military tensions intensify around one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil consumption before the conflict, making disruptions to vessel movements through the narrow passage a major risk to crude prices and international energy supply.

Oil markets reacted to the renewed uncertainty on Wednesday.

Brent crude climbed as high as $97.04 per barrel earlier in the session, its highest level since July 24, before easing to around $94.74 by 09:05 a.m.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also touched $92.29 per barrel before retreating to about $90.03.

The price movements came as the United States and Iran returned to their most serious exchange of attacks in weeks.

U.S. forces struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets, including air defence systems, radar installations, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications facilities.

Iran retaliated against U.S. interests in the region, escalating concerns that continued fighting could further restrict commercial movement through Hormuz.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently warned that the latest U.S. attacks would result in tighter restrictions on traffic through the strait.

Shipping Traffic Remains Well Below Normal Levels

Despite the 17 million barrels reported to have crossed Hormuz on Monday, vessel-tracking data show that overall commercial traffic through the waterway remains severely constrained.

Preliminary data from Kpler showed that only four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from 10 vessels on Monday and well below the 10-day average of approximately 13.

That represents a decline of about 69 percent compared with the recent 10-day average, based on the vessel numbers.

The four vessels comprised one very large crude carrier, one Panamax tanker, one Kamsarmax carrier and one intermediate tanker.

One vessel was entering Hormuz while three were leaving.

The shipping figures are preliminary because some vessels operating in the region switch off their transponders, meaning they may not appear in conventional tracking data.

Monday’s vessel traffic had also been unusually low.

Only five tracked vessels crossed Hormuz, compared with a 10-day average of around 14, and no liquid tankers were recorded among those vessels.

The contrast between low tracked vessel numbers and the 17 million barrels reported by the U.S. Energy Secretary highlights the unusual conditions surrounding oil movements through the region.

Hormuz Remains Critical to Global Oil Supply

The latest increase in crude flows comes after months of disruption to a waterway that was responsible for transporting roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the conflict intensified.

Traffic has been sharply reduced since the war began, forcing producers, traders and shipping companies to navigate heightened security risks while governments attempt to keep energy supplies moving.

The United States has been involved in efforts to restore oil movements through the strait, while Iran has sought greater control over vessels using the passage.

Last month, Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers accused of violating its transit requirements and threatened penalties ranging from fines and detention to confiscation of cargoes.

The vessels included very large crude carriers as well as LNG, LPG and refined-product tankers.

Before the latest escalation, Wright had said the seven-day average of oil leaving Hormuz had risen above 8 million barrels per day, indicating some recovery in exports despite the continuing restrictions.

Monday’s 17-million-barrel movement therefore represents a significant increase relative to the average volumes recently reported leaving the region.

However, it does not necessarily represent a new sustainable daily flow rate, as the figure refers to oil that crossed on a single day.

Oil Market Faces Renewed Supply Risk

The ability to maintain higher flows through Hormuz is becoming increasingly important for the direction of global crude prices.

Brent and WTI have both traded above $90 this week, while the latest military escalation briefly pushed Brent beyond $97.

Continued movement of crude through Hormuz could help contain the supply premium being built into oil prices.

A renewed restriction on tanker movements, however, could remove barrels from the international market and intensify pressure on crude prices.

The risk has increased following attacks on tankers leaving the strait earlier this week and Iran’s warning that access could be further restricted following the latest U.S. strikes.

The situation also extends beyond Hormuz.

Only 18 commodity vessels crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, compared with a 10-day average of about 24, indicating that shipping activity is also running below recent levels at another major Middle Eastern maritime chokepoint.

For the global oil market, the 17 million barrels that successfully crossed Hormuz provide evidence that substantial volumes can still reach buyers despite the conflict.

But with shipping traffic remaining below normal levels, U.S.-Iran attacks intensifying and Tehran threatening tighter restrictions, the ability to sustain those crude flows remains one of the biggest immediate risks facing global oil supply.