Oil Prices Rise as Ukraine Peace Talks, Middle East Tensions Lift Supply Concerns

Oil prices advanced on Monday as investors weighed fresh signals from U.S.–Ukraine peace discussions alongside escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East that could threaten global crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, rose 63 cents, or 1.04% to $61.27 per barrel in early Asian trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 58 cents, or 1.02% to $57.32 per barrel.

The rebound followed sharp losses late last week, when both benchmarks fell more than 2% on concerns over a potential global supply glut and the possibility of progress toward ending the Russia–Ukraine war.

Market attention turned back to geopolitics after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were moving “very close” to a deal to end the conflict.

The two leaders met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida over the weekend, where Trump said the coming weeks would be decisive for negotiations.

Despite the optimistic tone, analysts cautioned that major hurdles remain. Territorial disputes, particularly over the Donbas region, were not resolved during the talks, raising doubts over the likelihood of a swift breakthrough.

Some market participants believe the negotiations could remain deadlocked for longer than initially expected, limiting the near-term impact on oil supply flows from the region.

Beyond Eastern Europe, continued attacks on energy infrastructure added to supply concerns. Russia and Ukraine reportedly struck each other’s energy assets over the weekend, keeping risks elevated for crude and refined product logistics.

Tensions in the Middle East also contributed to the price gains. Recent Saudi air strikes in Yemen and renewed rhetoric from Iran, which has warned of being in a “full-scale war” with the U.S., Europe, and Israel, reinforced fears of potential disruptions in one of the world’s most critical oil-producing regions.

Traders increasingly priced in a geopolitical risk premium amid uncertainty over shipping routes and production stability.

Analysts noted that broader market dynamics remain mixed. While geopolitical developments supported prices, concerns about rising global supply and demand softness continue to cap upside momentum.

WTI is expected to trade within a $55 to $60 range in the near term, with investors also monitoring U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and the potential fallout from recent U.S. military strikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria, a producer of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day.

For now, oil markets appear caught between diplomatic optimism and persistent geopolitical risks, with traders closely watching developments in Ukraine and the Middle East for clearer direction.