OPEC+ to Raise Output by 137,000 bpd in October as Saudi Arabia Prioritizes Market Share

OPEC+ will raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day from October, a modest increase led by Saudi Arabia’s push to defend market share amid weakening global demand.

The decision, taken in an online meeting on Sunday by eight members of the alliance, marks a shift in strategy as the group seeks to balance supply management with the risk of ceding ground to non-OPEC producers.

The planned increase is modest compared to the 555,000 barrels per day added in August and September and the 411,000 barrels per day in July and June.

It also signals the unwinding of a second tranche of cuts, amounting to 1.65 million barrels per day, more than a year ahead of schedule.

OPEC+ has already fully unwound the first tranche of 2.5 million barrels per day since April, equivalent to about 2.4 percent of global demand.

Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad and a former OPEC official, described the move as largely symbolic, noting that “the barrels may be small, but the message is big.

The increase is less about volumes and more about signalling – OPEC+ is prioritizing market share even if it risks softer prices.”

The latest decision follows pressure from the United States earlier this year to boost output as President Donald Trump sought to lower domestic gasoline prices ahead of elections.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has pushed to discipline members such as Kazakhstan for overproducing, while the United Arab Emirates has added new capacity and pressed for higher targets.

Oil prices have fallen about 15 percent so far this year, reducing profits across the energy sector to their lowest since the pandemic and resulting in significant job losses.

Prices have nonetheless held near $65 per barrel, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, which have restricted supply and limited the downside.

Most OPEC+ members are producing close to capacity, meaning only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are positioned to bring meaningful additional barrels to the market. As a result, actual increases in supply are likely to fall short of the pledged volumes.

The group has said it retains the flexibility to accelerate, pause, or reverse hikes at future meetings, with its next review scheduled for October 5.