Economy
Nigeria’s Q1 Growth Hits 3.13% on Rebased GDP, Falls Short of 4.9% Forecast
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 following the rebasing of gross domestic product figures to reflect 2019 as the new base year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The revised data show that while the nominal size of the economy increased to ₦372.8 trillion ($243.7 billion) in 2024, a 30% increase from previous estimates, the real GDP growth in Q1 fell below the 4.9% projection made by market analysts.
The Q1 2025 growth rate represents a slowdown from the 3.46% expansion recorded in Q4 2024 and marks the lowest quarterly growth in 12 months.
According to the NBS, the revised structure now includes expanded coverage of sectors such as digital services, real estate, and pension fund administration.
The services sector, which grew by 4.3% and accounted for 58.04% of total GDP, remained the largest contributor to economic activity, driven by improved performance in information and communication, finance, and real estate.
Agricultural growth moderated to 0.4%, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter as seasonal factors and persistent input cost pressures weighed on productivity.
The oil sector grew by 5.7%, up from 4.1% in Q4 2024, as crude oil production averaged 1.57 million barrels per day, marking the first time Nigeria’s output has exceeded its OPEC+ quota since 2022.
The non-oil industrial sector expanded by 2.2%, supported by gains in construction and utilities. However, the manufacturing segment remained under pressure due to high energy costs, FX constraints, and weak consumer demand.
Despite the increase in nominal GDP, Nigeria remained the fourth-largest economy in Africa, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, following a nearly 70% depreciation in the value of the Naira since mid-2023.
The revised data is not expected to alter the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy stance.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on Tuesday (today) with all seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg projecting that the CBN will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 27.5%.
“The weaker-than-expected Q1 growth is largely technical and reflects the rebasing adjustment,” said Razia Khan, Head of Research for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank. “The CBN’s focus will remain on inflation and liquidity.”
The NBS said the rebasing exercise was necessary to capture current production and consumption trends and improve fiscal metrics such as the debt-to-GDP ratio.
With nominal GDP now at ₦372.8 trillion, fiscal indicators are expected to improve. However, the growth outlook remains subject to inflation management, FX market stability, and progress on structural reforms.