OPEC Raises Global Oil Demand Forecast to 120 Million Bpd by 2050

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its projections for world oil demand in its latest World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday.

The cartel sees oil demand rising to 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, 2.9 million bpd higher than it predicted in the previous year. The outlook also expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by 2050.

“Future energy demand is found in the developing world due to increasing populations, middle class and urbanization,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais during the report’s launch in Brazil.

On investment, the organization said the oil industry needs $17.4 trillion through 2050 to further expand production and sustain the sector.

“All policymakers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term investment-friendly climate,” Al Ghais wrote.

OPEC also increased its medium-term demand projection on a stronger economy than last year and easing inflationary pressure.

According to OPEC, world oil demand will rise to 111 million bpd and 112.3 in 2028 and 2029, respectively. While the 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd from last year’s prediction, 2029 forecast is over 6 million bpd higher than that of the IEA, which said in June demand will plateau in 2029 at 105.6 million bpd.

The gap is larger than the combined output of OPEC members Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

In 2020, OPEC made a shift when the pandemic hit oil demand, saying consumption would plateau in the late 2030s. It has begun raising forecasts again as oil use has recovered.

By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion vehicles on the road, up 1.2 billion from 2023, OPEC forecast. Despite electric vehicle growth, vehicles powered by a combustion engine will account for more than 70% of the global fleet in 2050, the report said.

“Electric vehicles are poised for a larger market share, but obstacles remain, such as electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals,” it said.