Nigeria’s Battered Naira Could Strengthen as Fed Eyes Lower Rates

As the US Federal Reserve signals potential interest rate cuts, there is growing optimism that Nigeria’s struggling naira could receive a much-needed boost.

The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, hinted at a possible rate reduction during the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23, 2024, suggesting that the time for policy adjustment may be near.

Since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) floated the naira in June, allowing market forces to determine its value, the currency has lost nearly 100% of its value, creating immense economic pressure on the country.

Inflation has soared to 33.40% as of July 2024, and the cost of living for millions of Nigerians has worsened.

However, Powell’s suggestion of a shift in US monetary policy has triggered a wave of optimism in global financial markets, potentially offering some relief for Nigeria’s currency.

A rate cut from the US Federal Reserve would weaken the dollar, potentially easing the downward pressure on the naira.

This move is seen as an opportunity for emerging markets, including Nigeria, to experience more favorable exchange rates. As the dollar becomes less attractive to investors, currencies such as the naira could stabilize or even strengthen.

Ibrahim Bakare, a professor of Economics at Lagos State University, said, “A weaker dollar could help ease some of the pressures on the naira. Lower US interest rates make the dollar less appealing, leading to depreciation, which could allow the naira some breathing space.”

Market experts have also expressed hope that this shift in US monetary policy could lead to increased foreign investment in Nigeria. Lower interest rates in the US often push investors to seek higher yields in emerging markets.

As Nigerian assets become more attractive, increased demand for the naira could help stabilize the currency.

“If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, we could see a shift in capital flows towards markets like Nigeria, supporting the naira and easing the current currency depreciation,” said a Lagos-based investment banker.

Despite these positive projections, the road ahead remains uncertain. The naira closed at 1,570.14 per dollar on Friday, according to the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), showing little improvement despite CBN interventions, including the sale of $815 million to businesses in early August to boost dollar liquidity.

The Central Bank’s hawkish stance, maintaining an interest rate of 26.75%, aims to contain inflation but has done little to reverse the naira’s sharp decline.

Many economists believe the Fed will reduce rates by 25 to 50 basis points in upcoming meetings in September and December. While this presents a hopeful outlook, the pace and timing of these cuts remain critical to the naira’s future trajectory.

“The Fed’s policy adjustment could bring relief, but the impact will depend on the speed and scale of their rate cuts,” said Tobi Ehinmosan, a macroeconomic analyst at FBNQuest Capital.

He cautioned that while a weaker dollar could stabilize the naira, sustained improvements in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market are needed to achieve lasting change.

In addition to exchange rate stabilization, a rate cut by the Fed could also have broader economic benefits for Nigeria. As imported goods become cheaper with a weaker dollar, inflationary pressures might ease, offering relief to Nigerian consumers who have been grappling with high costs.

Samuel Sule, CEO of Renaissance Capital Africa, stated, “If the dollar weakens, we could see lower prices for imported goods, providing some respite to consumers and contributing to a more stable inflation rate.”

Though hopes are high, analysts stress the importance of Nigeria addressing its own economic challenges, including foreign exchange liquidity and policy consistency. While the potential for a stronger naira is on the horizon, the CBN will need to maintain its interventions and ensure that the supply of foreign currency is adequate to meet demand.