Oil Prices Inch Down Amid Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Concerns

Crude oil prices declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and concerns over potential interest rate hikes resurfaced.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped marginally by 3 cents to settle at $85.21 per barrel following a modest 0.6% decline on Friday.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil saw a minimal decrease of 2 cents to close at $80.71 per barrel.

Market analysts pointed to the robust performance of the U.S. dollar, which gained ground after the release of positive Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data on Friday.

Tony Sycamore, a markets analyst at IG in Sydney, noted, “The U.S. dollar has opened bid this morning and appears to have broken higher following better U.S. PMI data on Friday night and political concerns ahead of the French election.”

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities like oil less attractive for holders of other currencies, putting downward pressure on prices.

Last week, however, both Brent and WTI crude contracts managed to gain approximately 3% each.

This was largely driven by increasing signs of demand recovery for oil products in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of crude oil. Additionally, ongoing supply constraints enforced by OPEC+ further supported market sentiment.

According to ANZ analysts, U.S. crude inventories continued their decline while gasoline demand recorded a seventh consecutive weekly rise.

Moreover, jet fuel consumption has rebounded to levels last seen in 2019, indicating a robust recovery in travel-related fuel demand.

Speculative activity in the oil market has also been notable, with analysts from ING observing an increase in net-long positions in ICE Brent as traders adopt a more positive outlook heading into the summer months.

“We remain supportive towards the oil market with a deficit over the third quarter set to tighten the oil balance,” they stated.

Despite these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions persisted, providing a floor for oil prices.

Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including the Gaza crisis and increased drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian forces, continued to underpin market sentiment.

In South America, Ecuador’s state oil company Petroecuador declared force majeure on deliveries of Napo heavy crude for exports due to severe weather conditions.

Heavy rains led to the shutdown of a critical pipeline and oil wells, impacting production and exports.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs fell by three to 485 last week, marking the lowest count since January 2022, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly report.

Looking ahead, the interplay between the U.S. dollar’s strength, geopolitical developments, and economic indicators such as PMI data will likely dictate short-term oil price movements.

Investors and analysts remain vigilant for any shifts in these factors that could influence global oil market dynamics in the coming weeks.