Global Trade Poised for a 2.3% Rebound in 2024, Reflecting Economic Normalization

The global economic landscape is set to witness a resurgence in trade with a projected rebound of 2.3% in 2024, according to the latest insights from the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.

This comes on the heels of a lackluster 2023 where global trade in goods and services experienced a near-stagnation, growing by a mere 0.2%, marking the slowest expansion outside of global recessions in the past half-century.

The report underscores the anticipation of a partial normalization in trade patterns after the exceptional weakness witnessed in the preceding year.

Goods trade, which contracted notably in 2023 due to declines in key advanced economies and a deceleration in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), is expected to resume expansion.

Conversely, the contribution of services to total trade growth is anticipated to decrease, aligning more closely with pre-pandemic trade composition patterns.

Reflecting on the subdued investment growth impacting global trade responsiveness, the World Bank acknowledges that, in the near term, the relationship between global trade and output is expected to remain lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the positive outlook, the global trade growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points since June.

Factors contributing to this adjustment include weaker-than-expected growth in China and a slowdown in global investment.

Consequently, the recovery in trade, now projected for 2021-2024, is considered the weakest following a global recession in the past half-century.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ data for Nigeria reveals a notable performance in the third quarter of 2023, with total trade standing at N18,804.29 billion.

Exports, valued at N10,346.60 billion, surged by 60.78%, while total imports stood at N8,457.68 billion, reflecting a 47.70% increase compared to the previous quarter.

As the global economy gears up for renewed trade dynamics, the World Bank emphasizes the challenges faced by developing economies, projecting a growth of just 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade.

Low-income countries, in particular, are expected to grow at 5.5%, falling short of earlier expectations.