The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stands as the harbinger of positive projections for the global oil market in 2024.
In its latest monthly report released for December, the cartel anticipated growth of 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024.
According to the report, OPEC foresees a robust rise in global oil demand, supported by a blend of sustained economic activities and petrochemical endeavors across major consumer nations.
The anticipated 2.2 mb/d surge is predicted to manifest through a variety of factors, including flourishing transportation fuels demand and distillates in 2024.
While highlighting the expected demand growth, OPEC emphasized the influential role of economic prosperity, particularly in China and the Middle East, which are poised to lead the way.
The report also places the United States at the forefront, constituting around 70% of the predicted non-OPEC supply expansion, buoyed by a year-on-year liquids production increase of 1.3 mb/d.
As the global economy prepares to bid farewell to 2023, OPEC expresses satisfaction with the better-than-expected economic growth witnessed during the first three quarters in key economies.
The global economic forecast for 2023 stands at an impressive 2.9%, setting a solid foundation for the anticipated growth in 2024, projected at 2.6%.
In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies, a steady trajectory is envisioned for the United States, with a slight moderation expected in the Eurozone and Japan.
The non-OECD group, comprising economic powerhouses like India, Brazil, and Russia, is anticipated to maintain robust growth patterns, sustaining the positive momentum observed up to the third quarter of 2023.
While the report paints a promising picture for oil demand, it also acknowledges uncertainties surrounding the global oil market.
To navigate these uncertainties, OPEC member countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) announced additional voluntary adjustments in the first quarter of 2024.
These measures aim to uphold stability and balance in global oil markets amid the spectrum of challenges and unknowns.
As the year draws to a close, OPEC remains cautiously optimistic, and its 2024 projections set the stage for an oil market that adapts to the evolving landscape of economic and geopolitical factors.