Global Bonds Surge at Swiftest Pace Since 2008 Crisis as Rate Hike Speculations Subside

Global bonds are experiencing their most rapid surge since the 2008 financial crisis, with a Bloomberg measure of global sovereign and corporate debt returning 4.9% in November.

This marks the largest monthly gain since December 2008 when it soared 6.2% during the depths of the recession.

The surge is fueled by growing speculation that central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, have completed interest rate hikes and are poised to initiate cuts in the coming year.

The recent rally has been accentuated by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, signaling a dovish stance. James Wilson, a senior portfolio manager, noted the significance of Waller’s dovish remarks, stating, “It sounds like the Fed is all but done in their hiking cycle.”

US 10-year yields slid to 4.26%, and Australian bonds experienced a surge, with 10-year yields dropping 14 basis points.

The current bond rally reflects a shift in expectations towards looser central bank policies, providing relief for corporate bonds.

Spreads on global investment-grade corporate debt are hovering near the lowest levels since April 2022, indicating increased investor optimism about a gentle economic slowdown.

The average yield on corporate bonds has retreated to around 5.3%, down from nearly 6% in October, according to Bloomberg data.

Despite this positive trend, there remains a divergence in views between credit investors and rates traders, with the latter anticipating more aggressive Fed rate cuts that would necessitate a more pronounced economic deceleration.

The resolution of this tension is likely to be a focal point as central banks navigate economic uncertainties in the months ahead.