Global stock markets faced a mixed outlook on Wednesday as investors contemplated the notion of extended higher interest rates, even after the Federal Reserve’s perceived halt in raising them.
Following the relatively favorable outcome of a benchmark 10-year Treasury note auction and the belief that the Fed has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, yields across the Treasury curve experienced declines.
Amid this uncertainty, the dollar saw a rebound from a recent sharp sell-off, supported by the increasing conviction that the Fed has suspended its rate hikes.
However, the consensus on whether a rate cut is imminent remains divided, given the lingering impact of inflation surpassing the Fed’s 2% target.
Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street in Boston, expressed that the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts is still uncertain, as the market continues to grapple with questions that initially pushed up yields.
The market is presently pricing in nearly a 50% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points as early as May, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Nevertheless, futures indicate that the Fed’s overnight lending rate is expected to remain above 5% through the following June.
While MSCI’s all-country world stock index closed flat, Europe’s STOXX 600 index experienced a 0.28% increase.
Wall Street presented a mixed picture, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite extending their winning streaks while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a minor decline.
On the European front, rising healthcare stocks and robust earnings reports contributed to the growth of European shares.
Meanwhile, investors scrutinized economic data and central bankers’ statements to decipher the European Central Bank’s approach to rate hikes.
An ongoing consensus that the Fed’s tightening cycle has ended has left most FX strategists anticipating the dollar’s weakness for the remainder of the year.
However, the forex market remains dynamic, and further developments are awaited with interest.