The global economy is expected to contract in the near time as the uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates and disappointing Chinese recovery continues to weigh on the outlook.
According to the latest forecasts from the OECD, growth is expected to ease to a mere 3% this year and a paltry 2.7% in 2024, the weakest annual expansion since the global financial crisis.
OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli cautioned that despite the temporary relief provided by lower energy prices and China’s reopening, global growth is poised to moderate.
Inflation remains a persistent concern, with central banks, like the European Central Bank, delivering consecutive rate hikes. The OECD warns that further monetary tightening might be necessary if inflation proves stubborn, while business and consumer confidence wanes.
China’s economic struggles are highlighted as a significant risk to global output, with the OECD noting that the country’s subdued domestic demand and structural challenges in property markets could limit the effectiveness of policy support.
The euro-area faces a downward revision in growth forecasts, including a projected contraction of 0.2% in Germany in 2023, while the United States is set for slower growth in 2024, dropping to 1.3% from 2.2% in 2023.
Despite some uncertainty, the OECD advises against easing monetary policy prematurely, emphasizing the need for restrictive measures until there are clear signs that underlying inflation pressures have substantially diminished.
In addition to these concerns, a 25% increase in oil prices since May threatens to exacerbate inflation, potentially squeezing household budgets and demand in economies dependent on fossil fuel imports.
The world economy faces a challenging period ahead, grappling with the dual challenges of inflation and sluggish growth, while keeping a watchful eye on China’s economic health.