US Return Could Boost Activity, Focus Remains on BoE and UK Inflation

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets remain slightly in the red on Tuesday but activity should pick up with the return of Wall Street from the long bank holiday weekend.

The focus this week remains on the central banks and whether we are as close to the end of the tightening cycle as everyone wants to believe. While there is the temptation to take what the Fed and others say with a small pinch of salt given their record over the last couple of years and the fact that any pivot was always likely to come late, they have been proven more accurate recently on their assertion that rates need to keep rising.

Markets have been overly optimistic this year and there may be an element of luck on the central bank side – keen to not underestimate inflation again, they were always going to remain hawkish as long as feasibly possible – but the data simply hasn’t justified changing course yet.

That may change over the next couple of months but so far, especially in the UK, the turnaround in inflation has been more akin to a container ship performing a U-turn than a speedboat as many hoped. That may not dramatically increase the terminal rate but it may ensure it remains there much longer. Rate cuts this year look more fantasy than reality now.

The BoE will be hoping for some good news from the UK inflation data tomorrow but I’m guessing policymakers are approaching it with a sense of dread rather than hope. We’re not likely to see any significant progress from the May data but avoiding another nasty surprise may be viewed as a win, allowing the MPC to proceed with 25 basis points rather than 50 which markets are pricing in a 30% chance of at this stage.

Oil remains choppy but flat and in lower range

Oil prices are relatively flat today, mirroring yesterday’s session which was broadly choppy but ultimately directionless. Crude has rebounded strongly since falling toward its 2023 lows early last week but remains in its lower range, roughly between $70-$80 per barrel and it’s showing little sign of breaking that in the short term.

While some believe the market will be in deficit later in the year, aided by the Saudi-driven OPEC+ cuts, which could support prices closer to what we saw late last year and early this, the economy remains one significant downside risk to this amid an adjustment in the markets toward higher rates for longer.

Gold drifting as we await more data

Gold has started the week slightly softer but very little has changed, in that it remains in the $1,940-$1,980 range that it has spent the vast majority of the last month. It was a very quiet start to the week which is why gold has basically continued to drift and that may continue until we see a significant change in the data.

The Fed last week made it perfectly clear that it doesn’t believe it’s done and its commentary this week, including Chair Powell’s appearing in Congress on Wednesday, isn’t likely to change in any significant way from that. It will be interesting to see if we get any response to UK inflation data as a potential signal of stickiness more broadly but then, there’s every chance it could be viewed as a UK issue, rather than an indication of something more, considering how much more the country has struggled until now.

Bitcoin’s recent trend remains against it despite recovery

Bitcoin drifted a little higher at the start of the week and is continuing to do so today. The move back toward $25,000 may have worried some but it’s recovered relatively well since then. The recent trend remains against it and until it breaks the pattern of lower highs – recovery rallies that fall short of recent peaks before falling again – it will continue to look vulnerable. A break below $25,000 could be another blow although gains this year would still remain extremely healthy.