5G to Overtake 4G in 2029 to Become The Dominant Mobile Technology

A recent report by GSMA has revealed that 5G will overtake 4G in 2029 to become the dominant mobile technology.

The report reveals that the rollout and adoption of 5G technology have been faster than that of previous mobile network generations.

As of January 2023, there were 229 commercial 5G networks around the world, and over 700 5G smartphone models have been launched, including more than 200 in 2022.

The technology has continued to see a growing adoption across countries in the world, due to the deployment of new networks and cheaper devices. Throughout 2023, some 30 new markets will launch 5G mobile services, importantly, many of these will be developing markets across Africa and Asia, making 5G a truly global technology and taking the total number of connections to 1.5 billion by the end of the year.

As 5G adoption continues to scale, the monetization imperative will grow. Awareness of the technology is high, but a significant share of consumers still do not see a reason to pay a premium to upgrade from previous generations. GSMA Intelligence survey

evidence states that around 50% of people see 5G as predominantly a speed upgrade rather than something genuinely new compared to 4G.

This has led to increasing competition and price pressure, which can be seen in the form of retail prices for 5G tariffs that are often on a par with those for 4G (or at a small premium).

However, the number of connections on legacy networks such as 2G and 3G has been predicted to continuously decline in the coming years as users migrate to 4G and 5G resulting in more network shutdowns.

To date, operators have announced plans to shut down 96 2G networks and 107 3G networks around the world. In the coming years, operators will shift their focus to driving 5G adoption, following significant capital outlays. The technology has already become mainstream in several markets, notably South Korea and the US, where 5G now accounts for more than 40% of total connections.

Meanwhile, Investors King understands that while the rest of the world races to deploy the next-generation 5G technology, Africa still lags behind the rest of the world in the adoption of the 5G technology.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the rollout is expected to follow a phased approach, differing from the rapid population coverage seen in more advanced markets. The implementation of the fifth-generation network in the region will likely take time, allowing for infrastructure development and gradual adoption.

Some of the reasons for this delay include the unavailability of the 5G spectrum, uncertainty over auction dates, and high investment for 3G/4G networks.

Also, some of the continent’s biggest telecoms companies such as MTN and Safaricom are creating space for the growth and expansion of 5G infrastructure, but the low penetration of 5G devices, which is unaffordable to many, has hampered the spread of mass adoption.